Holt – Australia 2025

Labor hold, with a swing against Cassandra Fernando. While this electorate has the more of the Labor friendly parts of Casey council here, there is a large portion of the electorate that has a mortgage.

Agree SpaceFish a bigger swing here than Bruce as it is more mortgage belt than Bruce. However, the strongest Labor part of Casey council is Doveton/Eummmering followed by Hallam which are all Solid Labor suburbs. The only Solid Labor suburb here in Hampton Park.

Melbourne’s property market has been stagnant for the past couple of years, and is now expected to go backwards next year. Will this have any political consequences?

holt and bruce will be medium term coalition targets

Nimalan,
You are correct, if my memory serves me correctly it was Doveton that helped Labor narrowly hold on here in 2004.
Nicholas,
If housing prices go down steadily then I don’t think there will too much of backlash however, if there were a violent correction then the government would be in serious trouble here.

John,
I agree especially if both have margins after the next election under 4% which possible.

@ Spacefish
Agree if was not for Doveton labor would have lost Holt in 2004 even with Hallam and Hampton Park.

@spacefish the other thing that will help them specifically in Bruce is if sheds the rest or even a little bit more of Dandenong it wlll lkely flip also the excess in Bruce is likely to transfer to Holt. If holt were to take in parts of La Trobe lkely the rest of Casey lga it too would likely flip. so labor will be in trouble shortly

I have similar thoughts for this seat as I do Bruce, probably the sort of seat that decides if the LNP manage to form a majority or not. Bruce is said to be buffered by Hill’s personal vote but is held on a tighter margin, latest round of MRP from Accent/Redbridge had this seat competitive. Few different data points showing a 5%+ swing in Victoria and more granular pollstars claiming the outer suburbs and regions account for a disproportionate amount of it. I think Holt is in play, but Labor certainly have the edge with their current margin.

Liberals will not win Holt or Bruce or
Majority government in 2025

Pretty reasonable chance that ends up being correct yes

However the idea of the Liberals capturing either of Bruce/Holt and a majority honestly feels more realistic at this point than Menzies and/or Deakin flipping to Labor. I don’t think Labor have any realistic targets except for Sturt and maybe a GRN seat in QLD or something.

@mick never say never but i think your right i dont think they will get enough seats for majority given the 3 teal seats in nsw wont flip. they likely wont win majority without holt and/or bruce

Is the key here:

* Does Fernando get a sophomore surge? If so, could that be enough to hold off any overall swing against Labor?
* Is the movement away from the ALP already baked in from last time? So less movement than you may get in other seats.

Both of these give the ALP a good shot of holding on here. Which we really shouldn’t be talking about.

I would not be surprised if none of Aston Menzies or Deakin were won by Labor but one may be won by Labor. Seats other than that like Dunkley and Mcewen will not shift. I suspect the teal Seats will not be won by the liberals.

Realignments don’t just take one electoral cycle, numerous factors would have cushioned the reaction against Labor in 2022, whilst in 2025 the drivers behind such a move are more intense. Mortgage belt areas in growth corridors will be more disproportionately affected by COL and interest rates, the lack of good public transport infrastructure in places like here and Hawke don’t help people feeling penned in, miles from the city and facing steep economic challenges.

My instinct is still that Labor holds due to the size of the margin but if the swing is on come election night then Holt is absolutely in play IMO.

3-4% swing to the liberals with an outside chanc of an upset win.

@mick none will be won by Labor of those first 3. McEwen will flip to the Liberals in my opinion. Dunkley will be lineball and could either way. Belyea is sittin on about a 3% margin after the by election and redistributio. she only won the by election because peta murphys personal vote likely transferred to Belyea out of sympathy. Also those who voted labor out of sympathy for Labor and Peta Murhys passing. in a regular by elction due to retirement or other reasons the seat would have been lost. Liberals can absolutely win Dunkley.

on the liberal seats im not writing the liberals off in victoria.

I just received a flyer from Cassandra Fernando. Either they gave the printers the wrong colour palette or she is running away from the Labor brand, as the purple of the flyer has nothing to do with Labor red.

Given plibersek also did this it’s option b

They do it as a trick as to try and confuse people of lower education and minority background. Purple is the colour of the aec and they hope they might think it’s official aec information.

It’s what the Libs did at the last election. Disassociate their MPs with the party branding, in electorates where the party is vulnerable – such as the outer suburbs for Labor this time around.

Although, if the flyer is purple it may be from the Together Union. I have seen flyers promoting Corrine McMillan (QLD Labor MP) in purple branding, branded as being from the “coalition of working families”, which is just the Together Union. I don’t think Fernando is connected to that union though.

Nope this this has the labor name on it. And in pliberseks case was basically just a flyer telling people who had moved into Sydney from the redistribution they are now apart of her electorate from her office

Ohh alright, just Labor MPs trying to distance themselves from Labor then. Nothing new, MPs from all parties have been doing this for ages.

Yea when the writings on the wall they try and make it about them not the party

Tanya Plibersek has used purple for her marketing and shirts for multiple elections, including in 2019 and 2022. Nothing new.

Yea because she’s under constant threat from the greens

I don’t think purple should be used for any federal party given it’s the colour used by the AEC. Just pick a different colour.

It’s a free country.

After UAPs good result here last time around, and the scenes from the local council meeting, how big will the Trumping the Patriots vote be?

Mostly I dunno but uap could push this close to themlibs

Depends how many Palmer voters live in Cranbourne South

Not comparable to UAP, totally different electoral landscape and vibe around that party

I really wonder why this seat did not as much attention as neighbouring Bruce as i mentioned above pretty much all of the urban area is mortgage belt home owning While in Bruce Dandenong and Doveton have more renters and a less settled population. This seat is more aspirational and apart from Hampton Park none it is Rock Solid Labor territory. The Libs candidate in Bruce is a diaster so maybe they should start shifting resources here instead.

Can’t comment as to the ground games, but driving through here today, there were plenty of Liberal signs around the place.

Seems like they’re at least putting in some sort of effort, above the typical “token sign or two” that usually happens if a party feels they have no hope.

@Nimalan I’d say Cranbourne and Clyde are fairly solid Labor areas (the latter more recently), whilst Cranbourne South and beyond the Royal Botanic Gardens are swingy areas that are trending right.

As for why there hasn’t been much attention, I can only guess that it’s because its margin is bigger than Bruce and unlike Hawke/McEwen/Gorton, the southeast seems to be fairly well covered in terms of services and utilities, and of course the Cranbourne Line services this area directly versus the Melton Line which is still waiting until forever to even be electrified.

@ Tommo9
At close state elections like 2010 and 2014 Cranbourne is very marginal. This is different to Dandenong which is among the strongest urban areas for Labor in the nation. Cranbourne is mortgage belt and more aspirational, young families buying the first home. It is a bit like Gawler in SA or Penrith WA but more ethnically diverse. The suburb of Doveton in Bruce is one the poorest places in metro Australia and like Davoren Park in Adelaide so welfare class area. I agree , the Southeast is better covered in services all level crossings on Pakenham and Cranbourne line will be removed by next year and will benefit from Metro Tunnel. However, extention of the line to Clyde is still needed. I agree Hawke is more of a concern due to Melton line issues and also problems on the Western Highway which is not of urban freeway standard.

I assume for Bruce, it is that there is a quite high proportion living in the eastern part which includes Berwick which is Anglo heavy and more middle class (to even quite upper class in some parts) whereas for Holt, the Liberal voting areas are just farmland which might look big on the map but small on the population.

@Nimalan, the reason why the state seat of Cranbourne was marginal in 2010 and 2014 was because the well known Aussie Rules footballer Geoff Ablett was the Liberal candidate for Cranbourne for both elections plus he was in fact the mayor for City of Casey between 2008 to 2013. Although since 2020, his reputation was destroyed due to corruption allegations.

Fair Point, Marh i agree Berwick is quite upper class in parts and very Anglo. In that way Bruce is a polarised electorate as it includes Upper Middle Class Anglo areas like Berwick and Narre Warren North and semi-rural Harkaway contasted by Dandenong which is among the least Anglo areas in the nation and more of a fresh of the boat suburb. In Holt the strong Liberal areas are farmland and coastal hamlets like Tooradin etc which dont have much population in contrast to Berwick. I always thought Cranbourne could be volatile as it is mortgage belt and more homeowning than Dandenong/Doveton.

If the Liberals want to win government without the Teal seats they need to look at seats such as Holt as an alternative. Tim Smith once said the Liberals need to take focus of Kew and put into Cranbourne unlike in Bruce there was no controversial Liberal candidate in Holt and she previously ran at the state election and got a small swing (albeit below state average) to her. The Biggest swings against the Libs this occured not in Teal areas but along the Pakenham/Cranbourne lines which includes a mix of established working class/outer suburban areas. I would say that that Princes Highway and South Gippsland highway are the Liberals Boulevarde of Broken Dreams this election. A good result here would have given momentum for the state election.

The libs issues were stacked against them and trump did them no favours. It wasn’t just in Australia where conservatives fell from a winning position to lose the election along with the leaders seat.

Holt now has a very margin. The near 7% 2PP swing to Labor in Holt was the second highest in Victoria. It was second only to Bruce. It seemed that Dutton and the Liberals had a repelling effect in various outer suburban electorates, most of which were thought of as targets.

I think the path for the Liberal recovery would include low hanging fruit – seats lost in 2022 and 2025 seats on low margins, not red wall or now safe Labor seats. I don’t think they should rule out teal seats completely since Bradfield and Kooyong have very low margins.

For the next state election, Bass is a key battleground seat whilst Cranbourne is safer due to a bigger buffer.

i think the libs can force labor to a very small minority at best.
seats they should easily pick up include Blair(subject to redistribution), Bullwinkel, Petrie, Solomon(maybe), Bendigo(NATS), Forde, Banks, Deakin, Moore, Hughes, Aston, McEwen, Gilmore, Chisholm, Werriwa, Pearce.

seats in the ? basket include Dickson(subject to redistribution), Leichardt, Whitlam, Paterson, Braddon, Eden-Monaro, Hawke, Macquarie, Bass(although) id say labor will retain it without Bridget Archer contesting), Corangamite, Hunter, Bennelong

in regards to the teal seats they should be able to win back Kooyong and Curtin, and maybe Ryan from the greens.

Labor will also face threats again if the inds recontest Calwell, Bean and Fremantle. Franklin dpending onn the candidate

seats like Holt and Bruce, are probably at least 2 elections away although if Jacinta Allen gets back in i wouldnt write off any of the vic seats.

labor probably wont be able to hold onto Wills this time and the greens will probably give labor a good run in Macnamara and Fraser.

In my subission for mayo its probably gonna be a labor seat on 2pp so the libs would be better off with Sharkie hanging around.

@ Votante
Holt has the second biggest margin in its history for Labor after 1998 when they got 15.51% back then it included Dandenong. The 2004 redistribution (created Gorton) removed 5.4% from Labor’s margin followed by 4.3% fall in the Labor margin due to 2019 redistribution which created Fraser so the seat is 9.7% more Liberal than in 1998 so in those terms it is Labor’s best ever result in Holt. In Bruce, the margin is even bigger than 2019 when the seat had very Pro-Labor boundaries and Labor’s best ever result. Far from the Outer South East Red Wall crumbling it is the highest its ever been. At a state level the Narre Warrens and Cranbourne have been cited as an alternative to the Sandbelt but unlike in the West there are not many local issues hurting Labor such as Melton electrification

@ Darth Vader
The point i am trying to make is that many right wing Liberals say is that there is a pathway without Teal seats but your path includes Kooyong and Curtin as well as more educated seats such as Corangamite, Deakin, Bennelong and Ryan.
If the right flank of the party does not want the follwong seats
1. Kooyong
2. Wentworth
3. Bradfield
4. Mackellar
5. Warringah
6. Curtin
7. Ryan
8 Brisbane
9. Boothby

There will need 9 seats which Tony Abbott did not win in 2013 if they embrace the realignment theory.

Really it’s not impossible to win both. The election was bad timing all around Trump was on the Ballot and was making waves across the world as it effected the Canadian election too. The libs kept making headlines for the wrong reasons backflipping. The campaign was poorly executed and the fear and vote buying by Labor was obvious. I mean 20% off your HECS debt? Who wouldn’t sell their vote for a few thousand dollars?

@ Darth Vader

Even before Trump won his second term there has been debate on whether the Teal seats are a lost cause and should be forgotton. That is the realingment theory which i am trying to discuss in context of the results in Bruce and Holt. See the debate on the thread below it has been citied the effort squandered on the Teal seats could have been used in Holt.
I dont think any party is big enough to the party of Dover Heights (wentworth) and Meadow Heights (Calwell) so you have to choose you cant keep both people happy.

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/aus2022/lindsay2022/comment-page-2#comments

Is it possible that in 2022 the Holt margin was bruised a little by the nature of the former MP’s departure (branch stacking) and possibly some Covid anger at the Labor brand while this time around the Fernando was able to make decisive inroads with the Sri Lankan community (which I believe is most concentrated in this seat but may be wrong) while Dutton completely lost the plot with Asian minorities? Similar cultural issues may have influenced the result in Bruce and yet in Dunkley and nearby Latrobe the swings were not nearly as severe

@ Maxim
I agree that the margin with the following points you correctly pointed out
1. Last time the margin was deceptively low due to Covid backlash in both Holt and Bruce
2. This seat and Bruce have the biggest Sri Lankan communities. Holt and parts of Bruce also many other South Asians. Aston also has a big Sri Lankan community.
3. I think Dutton was hated by CALD voters which drove the big swing

A few other points
1. La Trobe also had a big swing to Labor which was concentrated in the more ethnic urban parts like Clyde North, Officer and newer parts of Pakenham a simmilar story to Holt. However, it had a big Liberal margin so an even bigger swing was required.
2. Dunkley did not swing as much as it is a very White seat compared to Holt. Dutton would be less feared among white voters than CALD voters
3. With a large Muslim community typically working class in both Bruce and Holt i think there was a UAP (due to Covid) to GRN (Palestine is now a priority) this would have impacted the ALP/LIB TPP
4. I think Scomo did ok among South Asians last time unllike Chinese Australians so having Dutton instead of Scomo had an impact.

@Nimalan, I agree with many of your points. The Covid backlash in 2022 saw primary vote swings away from Labor but the votes went to UAP and One Nation instead of the Liberals in Holt and Bruce. The 2025 saw a further decline in the Liberal primary vote whilst Labor increased their primary votes.

I mentioned in the Corangamite thread that there was eastern/south-eastern Melbourne seats saw much bigger swings to Labor than western Melbourne seats. At least 5 seats in the east had swings of over 4%. Holt and Bruce were two of them.

Both Holt and Bruce are on 2PP margins of over 14%. Bruce’s margin might be a bit inflated due to a gaffe-prone and controversial Liberal candidate. There’s also the pro-Palestine vote making people switch to the Greens and preferencing Labor.

The Liberals/LNP suffered big swings in outer-suburban electorates with smaller migrant communities like Dickson, Petrie and Hughes (the Sutherland Shire part east of Heathcote Rd). The swings weren’t just confined to seats with migrant communities.

@ Votante
Totally Agree Roberson/Shortland is another example of an Anglo electorate with a big swing in adition to those you correctly mentioned and the best example in Probably the 3 Northern Tasmanian Seats which are among the least diverse in the nation