|Term due to expire 2022||Term due to expire 2025|
|Eric Abetz (Liberal)||Catryna Bilyk (Labor)|
|Wendy Askew (Liberal)||Carol Brown (Labor)|
|Jonathon Duniam (Liberal)||Claire Chandler (Liberal)|
|Helen Polley (Labor)||Richard Colbeck (Liberal)|
|Anne Urquhart (Labor)||Jacqui Lambie (Jacqui Lambie Network)|
|Peter Whish-Wilson (Greens)||Nick McKim (Greens)|
Tasmania elected five senators for each major party at the 1951 double dissolution. In 1953, the Liberals gained a sixth seat from the ALP. The Liberals were reduced to five seats in 1955, when one of the ALP’s senators left the party to join the party that became the Democratic Labor Party. In 1961, the Liberals lost their fifth seat to independent Reginald Turnbull, and until 1964 Tasmania was represented by four Labor senators, four Liberal senators, one DLP senator and Turnbull.
The 1964 election saw the ALP regain the seat previously held by the DLP. This 5-4-1 split remained until the 1970 Senate election, when the ALP lost their fifth seat to conservative independent Michael Townley, producing a result of four Labor, four Liberal and two independents. Turnbull retired at the 1974 double dissolution, and the ALP won back a fifth senate seat. Prior to the 1975 election Townley joined the Liberal Party, and in 1975 the Liberals won five seats, the ALP won four (down one from 1974) , and the final seat was won by ex-Labor independent Brian Harradine.
Tasmania continued to be represented by five Liberals, four Labor and Harradine from 1975 until the 1984 election, when Labor won a fifth seat and the Australian Democrats won a seat. This 5-5-1-1 balance remained steady until the 1996 election, when the Democrats lost their single senate seat, and Greens candidate Dr Bob Brown was elected to that seat. This balance remained steady until 2004, although prior to the 2001 election Labor Senator Shayne Murphy resigned from the ALP to serve as an independent.
At the 2004 election, Harradine retired, and his seat was won by the Liberal Party, whilst the ALP lost one of its seats to Greens candidate Christine Milne. At the 2007 election, the ALP won a fifth seat back off the Liberal Party. In 2010, the ALP again won three out of six seats, which resulted in Labor holding half of Tasmania’s Senate seats, with Liberal reduced to four.
In 2013, Labor lost its sixth Senate seat to Jacqui Lambie of the Palmer United Party, who subsequently left the party and founded the Jacqui Lambie Network.
There was no change at the 2016 double dissolution election. Labor maintained their five seats, the Liberal Party maintained four, the Greens two, and Jacqui Lambie was re-elected.
Lambie was removed from the Senate in 2017 due to citizenship problems, and she was replaced by her running mate Steve Martin, who eventually joined the Nationals.
The group of senators given a short term by the double dissolution leaned to the left, including three Labor senators, one Greens, one Liberal and one National.
At the 2019 election, Lambie regained her seat, but the Liberal Party gained a second seat off the expense of Labor, who were reduced to just two seats (for a total of four).
|Jacqui Lambie Network||31,383||8.9||+0.6||0.6241|
|United Australia Party||9,281||2.6||+2.6||0.1846|
|Shooters, Fishers and Farmers||6,133||1.7||+0.4||0.1220|
|Help End Marijuana Prohibition||4,141||1.2||+1.2||0.0824|
|Craig Garland independent group||3,649||1.0||+1.0||0.0726|
Three seats were won on primary votes: two Liberals and one Labor. The total Labor vote was over two quotas, but was split between the above-the-line vote and a substantial below-the-line vote for Lisa Singh, who was fourth on the Labor ticket.
Fast forward to the last ten candidates for the last three seats:
- Nick McKim (GRN) – 0.9329 quotas
- Catryna Bilyk (ALP) – 0.7381
- Jacqui Lambie (JLN) – 0.7104
- Lisa Singh (ALP) – 0.4499
- Matthew Stephen (ON) – 0.2835
- Tanya Denison (LIB) – 0.2500
- Kevin Morgan (UAP) – 0.2111
- Rebecca Byfield (SFF) – 0.1724
- Steve Martin (NAT) – 0.1207
- Karen Bevis (AJP) – 0.1194
AJP preferences flowed most strongly to the Greens:
- McKim (GRN) – 0.9704
- Bilyk (ALP) – 0.7556
- Lambie (JLN) – 0.7247
- Singh (ALP) – 0.4518
- Stephen (ON) – 0.2941
- Denison (LIB) – 0.2623
- Morgan (UAP) – 0.2160
- Byfield (SFF) – 0.1847
- Martin (NAT) – 0.1251
Nationals preferences favoured the Liberal candidate, pushing her ahead of One Nation:
- McKim (GRN) – 0.9945
- Bilyk (ALP) – 0.7636
- Lambie (JLN) – 0.7353
- Singh (ALP) – 0.4538
- Denison (LIB) – 0.3206
- Stephen (ON) – 0.3033
- Morgan (UAP) – 0.2210
- Byfield (SFF) – 0.1880
Shooters preferences favoured Lambie, the UAP and One Nation most strongly, but just enough went to the Greens to elect McKim to the fourth seat.
- McKim (GRN) – 1.0049
- Bilyk (ALP) – 0.7886
- Lambie (JLN) – 0.7827
- Singh (ALP) – 0.4560
- Denison (LIB) – 0.3453
- Stephen (ON) – 0.3353
- Morgan (UAP) – 0.2544
The small Greens surplus was distributed, and then UAP preferences flowed most strongly to Lambie and One Nation:
- Lambie (JLN) – 0.8681
- Bilyk (ALP) – 0.8243
- Singh (ALP) – 0.4589
- Stephen (ON) – 0.4059
- Denison (LIB) – 0.3925
Liberal preferences again favoured Lambie and Stephen:
- Lambie (JLN) – 0.9824
- Bilyk (ALP) – 0.9055
- Stephen (ON) – 0.5089
- Singh (ALP) – 0.4799
Singh had received very few preferences, as she could not receive any preferences above the line. Her preferences elected Lambie and Bilyk for the final two seats:
- Bilyk (ALP) – 1.2733
- Lambie (JLN) – 1.0617
- Stephen (ON) – 0.5119
- A – Todd Dudley (Sustainable Australia)
- B – Steve Mav (One Nation)
- C – Ivan Davis (Animal Justice)
- D – Labor
- E – Matt Owen (Legalise Cannabis)
- F – Ray Williams (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
- G – Ray Broomhall (Federation)
- H – Leanne Minshull (Local Party)
- I – Peter Whish-Wilson (Greens)
- J – Topher Field (Liberal Democrats)
- K – Diana Adams (United Australia)
- L – Liberal
- M – Tammy Tyrrell (Jacqui Lambie Network)
- N – Lynne Kershaw (Informed Medical Options)
- Steve Crothers (Independent)
- Fenella Edwards (Independent)
The left currently holds three seats up for election, and the right holds three. The most likely outcome would be a continuation of the status quo.
Labor and Liberal should each win two seats, with the Greens winning one. The Liberal Party are the favourites for the final seat, but a big swing to Labor could see that seat go to the left, as it has done in the past.
Another unknown factor is the performance of the Jacqui Lambie Network. Lambie herself is not up for election, and she has not yet demonstrated an ability to attract votes for other candidates on her platform.
If the JLN can do well, they may be able to take votes off the Liberal Party that aren’t open to Labor or the Greens, and then win the final seat off Labor and Greens preferences.