Swan – Australia 2022

LIB 3.2%

Incumbent MP
Steve Irons, since 2007.

Geography
Swan covers suburbs in the inner south of Perth. This includes the entire Belmont, South Perth and Victoria Park council areas and parts of Canning and Kalamunda council areas. Swan covers the suburbs of Victoria Park, Cloverdale, Kewdale, Rivervale, Bentley, Cannington, Como, Manning and Forrestfield.

Redistribution
Swan rotated around, losing its south-eastern corner and gaining more to the east. Swan lost Beckenham and Kenwick to Burt and gained Forrestfield from Hasluck. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 2.7% to 3.2%.

History

Swan is an original federation electorate. It was first held by John Forrest for the Protectionist party from 1901. Forrest was the first Premier of Western Australia and moved to federal politics in 1901. He served as a minister in various governments, including four stints as Treasurer, the last being in the year up until his death in 1918 under Billy Hughes.

The ensuing by-election was won by 21-year-old Labor candidate Edwin Corboy when the Nationalist and Country Party candidates split the conservative vote. This led to the government introducing preference voting, and he lost the seat at the 1919 election to John Prowse of the Country Party. The  Country part held the seat until 1943, first John Prowse then Henry Gregory and Thomas Marwick. Marwick was defeated by the ALP’s Donald Mountjoy in 1943, and Mountjoy was defeated by the Country Party’s Leonard Hamilton in 1946.

The Parliament was expanded in 1949 and Hamilton moved to the new seat of Canning, and the Liberal Party’s Bill Grayden won the seat. The ALP’s Harry Webb won the seat in 1954 and held it for one term until 1955, when he moved to the new seat of Stirling. Richard Cleaver of the Liberals won the seat in 1955 and held it until his defeat in 1969.

Adrian Bennett held the seat for the ALP from 1969 until 1975, when John Martyr won the seat for the Liberals. Martyr was a former state secretary of the Democratic Labor Party. He was defeated in 1980 by Kim Beazley.

Beazley held the seat until 1996, when he moved to the safer seat of Brand. Don Randall won the seat for the Liberals in 1996 and was defeated in 1998. He later moved to the nearby seat of Canning and held it from 2001 until his death in 2015.

ALP candidate Kim Wilkie won Swan in 1998. He held the seat until the 2007 election, when he was the only sitting Labor MP to be unseated, losing to Steve Irons. Irons has been re-elected four times.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Steve Irons is not running for re-election.

  • Paul Hilton (United Australia)
  • Matthew Thompson (Liberal Democrats)
  • Timothy Green (Animal Justice)
  • Zaneta Mascarenhas (Labor)
  • Carl Pallier (Federation)
  • Rod Bradley (Western Australia Party)
  • Peter Hallifax (One Nation)
  • Kristy McSweeney (Liberal)
  • Clint Uink (Greens)
  • Dena Gower (Australian Christians)
  • Assessment
    Swan is a very marginal seat, and if Labor is resurgent in Western Australia it will be their first target. This seat has been trending to the right over the last two decades, which has partly reflected a shift to the right in Western Australia, but Swan has still shifted further than the state overall. Despite this trend, the seat remains very marginal and has always voted to the left of the state.

    2019 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
    Steve Irons Liberal 37,59144.7-3.544.7
    Hannah Beazley Labor 27,95333.2+0.232.9
    Liberty Cramer Greens 10,36712.3-2.712.0
    Tshung-Hui ChangOne Nation2,0382.4+2.42.9
    Peter MclernonUnited Australia Party1,4821.8+1.81.8
    Steve KlompAustralian Christians1,4501.7-2.11.7
    Sharron Hawkins ZeebWestern Australia Party1,1021.3+1.31.4
    Virginia Anne Thomas-WurthAnimal Justice1,3041.5+1.61.3
    Carmel AddinkConservative National Party5990.7+0.70.6
    Michael ChehoffAustralia First2510.3+0.30.3
    Others0.4
    Informal5,1965.8+2.2

    2019 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
    Steve Irons Liberal 44,33352.7-0.953.2
    Hannah Beazley Labor 39,80447.3+0.946.8

    Booth breakdown

    Booths have been divided into four parts, mostly along local government boundaries. Polling places in the South Perth council area have been grouped as “west”. Those in Victoria Park and Belmont have been grouped as “central”. Those in Kalamunda are “east” while those in Canning (and a small part of Victoria Park) are “south”.

    The outer edges of the seat lean to the Liberal Party while the middle is more pro-Labor.

    The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote on election day in two areas, winning 54.5% in the east and winning a large 60.9% majority in the west.

    Labor polled 53.6% in the centre and 55.8% in the south.

    The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 8.9% in the east to 14.3% in the south.

    Voter groupGRN prim %LIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
    Central13.946.421,44322.7
    West12.160.916,37817.3
    East8.954.512,94813.7
    South14.344.28,3218.8
    Pre-poll10.454.718,46919.5
    Other votes12.156.516,99418.0

    Election results in Swan at the 2019 federal election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.

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    63 COMMENTS

    1. This is Labor main chance in WA won’t be a bloodbath. McGowan was rewarded for being the voice for protectionism but when it comes down to it both federal leaders are from NSW and that won’t transfer

    2. Swan isn’t a primary marginal seat because it went liberal since 2007 + it’s a secondary marginal seat. Liberal 1996 till 98 & from 2007 since & the alp from 1998 till 9 years later.

    3. Swan is a polarised seat between affluent South Perth and More industrial labor voting suburbs such as around Kewdale. At a state level this area usually does not gain much attention for this reason. This seat is still more Labor leaning than WA as a whole although it closely tracks the statewide TPP. This seat is evidence how Labor has underperformed in WA since 2001.

    4. My apologies I’m backing Zaneta Mascarenhas over Kristy Mcsweeney seriously thanks to preferences from minor parties + greenies.

    5. At this stage, Zaneta Mascarenhas will probably have more first preferences than Kristy McSweeny. Add the Greens preferences and this seat will be a comfortable Labor gain.

    6. Feel pleased that Zaneta won as it will be a set forward for Diversity regardless of party allegiance. As some of South Asian background this election was a watershed moment. Swan has existed since Federation and she is also the first woman to represent the seat.

    7. In addition to Zaneta being the first woman in Swan and one of very few federal parliamentarians of South Asian background, she is also an engineer. We have very few parliamentarians from a STEM background. Gender and racial diversity are important, and so is diversity of expertise outside parliament.

    8. Exactly my thoughts too, @Wilson, I’m delighted that we have more parliamentarians with STEM backgrounds. Anandah-Rajah in Higgins is another one.

    9. Agree Wilson and Nicholas, i could also Dr Gordon Reid in Robertson who is indigenous as well

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