Ryan – Australia 2022

LNP 6.0%

Incumbent MP
Julian Simmonds, since 2019.

Geography

Ryan covers the western suburbs of Brisbane. The seat covers the north side of the Brisbane river from Auchenflower through Toowong, Indooroopilly, Chapel Hill and Kenmore. It also covers suburbs further north including The Gap and Ferny Grove.

History

Ryan was first created in 1949. The seat was first won by Nigel Drury in 1949 for the Liberal Party. Drury held the seat until 1975, mainly serving as a backbencher. He was succeeded by John Moore in 1975. Moore served as a minister in Malcolm Fraser’s final term and served in the shadow cabinet during the Hawke/Keating governments.

Moore served as Minister for Industry, Science and Tourism in John Howard’s first government and become Minister for Defence after the 1998 election. He lost the portfolio in a reshuffle in December 2000 and proceeded to resign from Parliament early in 2001.

A swing of 9.7% gave the normally safe Liberal seat to Labor candidate Leonie Short by 255 votes. Liberal candidate Michael Johnson won back the seat at the 2001 general election. Johnson was reelected in 2004 and 2007. A 6.6% swing to the ALP in 2007 made the seat marginal, and the ensuing redistribution cut the margin further.

Michael Johnson was expelled from the Liberal National Party in May 2010 due to controversies surrounding his role as Chair of the Australia-China Business Forum.

The LNP preselected Brisbane city councillor Jane Prentice in 2010. Prentice won the seat comfortably. Michael Johnson ran as an independent, and came fourth with 8.5% of the vote. Prentice won two more terms in 2013 and 2016.

Prentice lost LNP preselection in 2019 to Brisbane City councillor Julian Simmonds, and he went on to win the seat with relative ease.

Candidates

  • Kathryn Pollard (United Australia)
  • Damian Coory (Liberal Democrats)
  • Janine Rees (Progressives)
  • Joel Love (One Nation)
  • Jina Lipman (Animal Justice)
  • Elizabeth Watson-Brown (Greens)
  • Peter Cossar (Labor)
  • Julian Simmonds (Liberal National)
  • Axel Dancoisne (Federation)
  • Assessment
    The 2019 election was the first time in at least 35 years that the LNP two-party-preferred vote was lower in Ryan than in Queensland overall. The seat is not quite as conservative (relative to the state) as it once was, but that result would have partly been an artefact of the involuntary removal of the sitting member. The new member should benefit from a personal vote that should help him out, but if Labor is looking for potential targets in Queensland, this seat may rank higher than seats Labor held when they were last in government.

    There is also a question here about which party is the main rival for the LNP. Labor polled just 4.1% more than the Greens in 2019, and that gap narrowed to 3.3% by the critical point in the distribution of preferences. It is not hard to see the Greens becoming the main opposition to the LNP here, but they would still have some way to go to win the seat.

    2019 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Julian Simmonds Liberal National 46,86948.6-3.5
    Peter Cossar Labor 23,56024.4+1.5
    Jake Schoermer Greens 19,62120.3+1.6
    Rodney MilesOne Nation2,0802.2+2.2
    Joanne WebbAnimal Justice1,8541.9+1.9
    Larry Edward CrouchUnited Australia Party1,4781.5+1.5
    Andrew BanksConservative National Party9641.0+1.0
    Informal2,3692.4+0.0

    2019 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Julian Simmonds Liberal National 54,02356.0-3.0
    Peter Cossar Labor 42,40344.0+3.0

    Booth breakdown

    Booths have been divided into four areas. Most of the population lies at the eastern end of the electorate, and these areas have been split into three areas. From north to south, these are Enoggera, The Gap and Indooroopilly. The remainder of the booths, most of which lie near the Brisbane River, have been grouped as “West”.

    The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three areas, with a vote ranging from 51.8% in The Gap to 63% in the west. Labor won 51.5% in Enoggera.

    Labor and the Greens both polled relatively similar numbers of votes, with Labor’s vote peaking in Enoggera while the Greens vote was highest in Indooroopilly.

    Voter groupGRN primALP primLNP 2PPTotal votes% of votes
    Indooroopilly24.522.754.722,50123.3
    The Gap22.926.551.814,19214.7
    Enoggera17.133.648.510,24710.6
    West17.719.663.06,7667.0
    Pre-poll18.523.958.225,84826.8
    Other votes18.522.259.716,87217.5

    Election results in Ryan at the 2019 federal election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.

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    123 COMMENTS

    1. The problem with that poll is that assumes no swing to the Greens whereas in 2019 they already got 20%. There can be NO doubt of a swing towards them (sources on the ground) so I would be stunned if when it comes to the final three they are not closer to 25%. But Peter on 27-30% I can well believe also – except it is not showing at the prepoll – at least not if you look at how many take HTV.- there are of course a number of prepolls, so what I am saying may not relate everywhere.

      I would expect that Bellbowie will swing ALP and outnumber the Greens, likewise Everton Hills. On the other hand Indooroopilly and The Gap will see Greens outnumber the ALP

    2. @Wilson

      Your drawing a very long bow because Labor hasn’t mentioned the Greens. That’s completely different to what others (UAP etc) have done in the past which have specificly mentioned Labor and connected it to a lie.

      That’s why the Greens complaint to the AEC is a joke because it’s to vague to be taken seriously.

      Realistically the Greens or any other minor party will not win government. That’s why Labor suggesting its the only alternative to Morrison to form government is not a ‘barefaced lie’ as you suggest.

    3. Political Nightwatchman, I disagree, I’m not drawing a very long bow at all. The hypothetical example I gave also didn’t mention any other party besides the one making the ad.

      You’re also trying to change the wording and therefore the meaning of what was on the ad. Labor said “the only way to change the government is to vote 1 Labor”. That is not equivalent to “the only alternative government to Scott Morrison will be led by Labor”. They are two different things and you are conflating them. Voting a Greens representative in means one fewer potential number for Morrison in a confidence vote, therefore a first preference vote for the Greens (or any other party that has committed to not supporting an LNP government) is a vote for changing the government. That’s why the statement on the ad is a barefaced lie.

    4. It will very, very hard for most observers in NSW or Vic to grasp a seat like Ryan.

      Looking at Ben’s map you will see that there are areas that get 30% green. Well these are inner city areas, that are most like Richmond or Paddington (NSW). Walking distance to the CBD. Also nearby the main University so thing Glebe or Parkville.

      Go out a tiny bit and you get leafy green suburbia with some parts being very blue, some very green, some mixed and some slightly red leaning. Go a bit further out and you have essentially rural hobby farm areas- acreage sites hence the 27 way out west) with one suburb actually closer to Ipswich/Wacol than the CBD.

      In other words you have the inner city cyclists and the pony clubs in the same electorate.

    5. There seems to be a narrative getting pushed out there in the media that this seat is actually in play for Labor, not the Greens, and I don’t really buy it. It’s not like I have any fancy source to back my thoughts up but I really don’t think this seat will ditch the LNP unless it’s for the Greens, but if it somehow votes Labor on election night whilst electorates like Petrie stick firmly with the Libs I will enjoy all the talk about it.

    6. Hi Laine,
      I was convinced this would be an LNP retain prior to the election being called. Not anymore. I’m almost certain the party that finishes second here will win this one. LNP primary between 30-35% will be well short. ALP 25% primary, and a Greens primary around 20%.

      As Maverick mentioned earlier, this seat is a seat like no other.

    7. I’ve said this before but Brisbane and Ryan are pretty similar really, bar the rural hobby farms. You’ve even got the Saddle Club out in Hendra and Ascot.

      Brisbane’s much more likely to fall imo, the LNP aren’t putting nearly the same amount of manpower into it. I put this down to factionalism; Julian Simmonds has the support of the party base whereas Trevor Evans doesn’t. And the Liberal Democrats seem much more active in Ryan too, for whatever reason. So I’m betting the MRP poll won’t be too far off, at least as far as the 2PP vote goes. As to their accuracy re: Labor vs Greens, it’ll depend whether the models based on 2019 results are applicable to 2022, and also, frankly, the usual wild card that there are still gonna be tons of undecideds on election day.

    8. I’ll be very surprised if the Greens are on less than 25% when it reaches the 3PP stage here. Their campaign has been much larger than last time and has been going on for about a year. Greens MP Berkman also got a 40% primary in 2020, in an area that overlaps with about 1/3 of Ryan.

      ALP on the other hand haven’t been campaigning strongly until recently, so it’s a question of whether a last minute injection of advertising money will make up for the lack of a sustained ground game.

      For the seat to flip the combined ALP + GRN 3PP vote needs to be at 55+ (because about 20% of their preferences will leak back to the LNP), so I think they’ll fall just short of that.

      People predicting big falls in the LNP primary but not matching rises in ALP or GRN primaries, where do you think the rest of the vote is going?

      JohnnyBee is suggesting that only 75-80% of the primary will go to the three largest parties, which implies that the micro party vote will increase by 3 to 4 times (from 6.6%) which I find completely unbelievable.

    9. @Leo, on closer analysis you are correct calling out my sloppiness in Primary breakdown. This is certainly a seat that can’t be defined as a sloppy and rounded 35/25/20 split. Micros and Informal vote will only account for between 7 to 10% and I feel even that’s being generous.

      On closer analysis this looks a real cliffhanger between the ALP and Greens with both parties polling in the high 20% low 30% range. I’m pretty confident the 3PP scenario is in play and well above the required 55% to flip. Just haven’t seen any evidence suggesting the LNP vote being above 40% unless the LNP faithful come out of the woodwork on polling day.

      I’ll stick to my prediction of ALP gain but a green win won’t shock. LNP preferencing ALP above the Greens will be the difference here.

    10. JohnnyBee, why would the LNP preferences be the difference considering they’re likely to make the final count?

    11. @ Wilson. It’s been long day. Correcto. LNP preferences are irrelevant. I’m 2 bad comments now in half an hour – dinner and bedtime for me.

      Got me thinking, what would the LNP primary vote need to be to realistically hold this seat. The UAP and PHON vote is basically non existent. I have a number in mind which makes me think this could be the most intriguing seat on election night. How good are 3PPs!

    12. @JohnnyBee the LNP vote gained 3.44% off preferences before reaching the 3PP last time.
      If we assume they’ll get a similar amount this time, and that they only need to reach 45% at the 3PP to hold, then Julian is almost certainly gone if the primary is anything under 40%, it’s lineball between 40 and 42%, and probably a hold for 42% and above.

      That’s all assuming that the ALP and GRN votes are fairly close. It’s actually harder for the LNP to win if there’s a big imbalance in the left votes. If we assume that whoever is eliminated in 3rd will give back 20% of their vote to the LNP, a result like 28-27 leaks 5%ish, whereas something like 35-20 has the same combined left vote, but only leaks 4% back.

    13. The Labor candidate here and in Brisbane have been dropping Robo calls, posting on social media, and even have phyiscal placards that say “the only way to change the government is to vote for Labor.”

      Just like Maiwar 2017 a year long Greens campaigns have done all the work making the seat marginal and Labor comes in late and tries to spoil it by confusing left wing voters into voting Labor instead of for the Greens.

    14. What happened here? Both Labor and the Greens primary vote combined is well over 50% yet the ABC says the LNP is ahead with under 40% of the primary vote and the Greens in 2nd place.

      No way Simmonds holds’ on these numbers. Either it’s on the AEC or Labor voters have gone our their way to put the Greens last like I did. (And similar to what happened in 2009 in Indooroopilly (Now Maiwar) ALP voters went out their way to put Rowan Lee last)

      Pollbludger on the other hand has the Greens ahead.

    15. @Daniel the AEC is only showing the results from postal votes right now (something to do with resetting the count because they started with the wrong pairing for the 2CP count). Per Kevin Bonham’s blog, the Greens have won.

    16. I was discussing with a friend on election day that I thoughts the Greens might do well in inner Brisbane due to the floods and without a teal, could snag a seat. Wasn’t really expecting it though, and certainly not 2, possibly 3, seats. Definitely beat all expectations, much like the teals.

    17. Moggill on these figures would be in danger of falling to the Greens at the next state election if the Greens can hold and grow support in this area. It will CERTAINLY be an LNP vs GRN instead of its usual ALP vs LNP.

      Crisafulli has no chance of becoming premier unless he can prevent losing seats like this to the Greens, he might be able to forge a minority but a majority looks unlikely unless he can win all but 1 or 2 seats in regional/North QLD and take all the Sunshine Coast/Gold Coast seats back.

      A Labor/Green alliance after 2024 is quite possibly in Queensland.

    18. Rod, you know very well federal and state doesn’t overlap. It never does. Labor will not get under 30% at the next state election. Many LNP voters federally will refuse to vote for them at the state level after what Campbell Newman did.

      If anything there the LNP will do worse here on state figures than on federal figures here, meaning the Greens have room to improve their vote here and claim Moggil at the next state election.

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