Julian Simmonds, since 2019.
Ryan covers the western suburbs of Brisbane. The seat covers the north side of the Brisbane river from Auchenflower through Toowong, Indooroopilly, Chapel Hill and Kenmore. It also covers suburbs further north including The Gap and Ferny Grove.
Ryan was first created in 1949. The seat was first won by Nigel Drury in 1949 for the Liberal Party. Drury held the seat until 1975, mainly serving as a backbencher. He was succeeded by John Moore in 1975. Moore served as a minister in Malcolm Fraser’s final term and served in the shadow cabinet during the Hawke/Keating governments.
Moore served as Minister for Industry, Science and Tourism in John Howard’s first government and become Minister for Defence after the 1998 election. He lost the portfolio in a reshuffle in December 2000 and proceeded to resign from Parliament early in 2001.
A swing of 9.7% gave the normally safe Liberal seat to Labor candidate Leonie Short by 255 votes. Liberal candidate Michael Johnson won back the seat at the 2001 general election. Johnson was reelected in 2004 and 2007. A 6.6% swing to the ALP in 2007 made the seat marginal, and the ensuing redistribution cut the margin further.
Michael Johnson was expelled from the Liberal National Party in May 2010 due to controversies surrounding his role as Chair of the Australia-China Business Forum.
The LNP preselected Brisbane city councillor Jane Prentice in 2010. Prentice won the seat comfortably. Michael Johnson ran as an independent, and came fourth with 8.5% of the vote. Prentice won two more terms in 2013 and 2016.
Prentice lost LNP preselection in 2019 to Brisbane City councillor Julian Simmonds, and he went on to win the seat with relative ease.
The 2019 election was the first time in at least 35 years that the LNP two-party-preferred vote was lower in Ryan than in Queensland overall. The seat is not quite as conservative (relative to the state) as it once was, but that result would have partly been an artefact of the involuntary removal of the sitting member. The new member should benefit from a personal vote that should help him out, but if Labor is looking for potential targets in Queensland, this seat may rank higher than seats Labor held when they were last in government.
There is also a question here about which party is the main rival for the LNP. Labor polled just 4.1% more than the Greens in 2019, and that gap narrowed to 3.3% by the critical point in the distribution of preferences. It is not hard to see the Greens becoming the main opposition to the LNP here, but they would still have some way to go to win the seat.
|Julian Simmonds||Liberal National||46,869||48.6||-3.5|
|Rodney Miles||One Nation||2,080||2.2||+2.2|
|Joanne Webb||Animal Justice||1,854||1.9||+1.9|
|Larry Edward Crouch||United Australia Party||1,478||1.5||+1.5|
|Andrew Banks||Conservative National Party||964||1.0||+1.0|
2019 two-party-preferred result
|Julian Simmonds||Liberal National||54,023||56.0||-3.0|
Booths have been divided into four areas. Most of the population lies at the eastern end of the electorate, and these areas have been split into three areas. From north to south, these are Enoggera, The Gap and Indooroopilly. The remainder of the booths, most of which lie near the Brisbane River, have been grouped as “West”.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three areas, with a vote ranging from 51.8% in The Gap to 63% in the west. Labor won 51.5% in Enoggera.
Labor and the Greens both polled relatively similar numbers of votes, with Labor’s vote peaking in Enoggera while the Greens vote was highest in Indooroopilly.
|Voter group||GRN prim||ALP prim||LNP 2PP||Total votes||% of votes|