Rankin – Australia 2022

ALP 6.4%

Incumbent MP
Jim Chalmers, since 2013.

Geography
Rankin covers suburbs in both the City of Brisbane and the City of Logan in the southern parts of the greater Brisbane region. Suburbs include Algester, Calamvale, Hillcrest, Regents Park, Heritage Park, Crestmead, Kingston, Chatswood Hills and Springwood.

History
The seat of Rankin was created in 1984 as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives. It has always been held by the Labor Party. It originally covered Beaudesert and the Gold Coast hinterland but it has gradually moved into safer areas closer to Brisbane.

The seat was first won in 1984 by Labor MP David Beddall. Beddall had won the marginal seat of Fadden off the Liberal Party in 1983 before moving to Rankin. Beddall joined the Hawke ministry after the 1990 election and joined the Labor cabinet after the 1993 election, serving as a cabinet minister until the defeat of the Keating government in 1996. He retired from Rankin in 1998.

Rankin was won in 1998 by Labor candidate Craig Emerson. Emerson held Rankin for the next fifteen years. Emerson joined the Labor shadow ministry following the 2001 election, and served as a minister from 2007 to 2013.

Emerson retired at the 2013 election, and Labor candidate Jim Chalmers retained the seat. Chalmers has been re-elected twice, and has served as Shadow Treasurer since the 2019 election.

Candidates

  • Paul Darwen (Liberal National)
  • Neil Cotter (Greens)
  • Jeff Crank (United Australia)
  • Glen Cookson (One Nation)
  • Suzanne Clarke (Animal Justice)
  • Jim Chalmers (Labor)
  • Assessment
    Rankin is a reasonably safe Labor seat.

    2019 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Jim Chalmers Labor 35,15641.4-7.9
    Clinton Pattison Liberal National 26,60831.4+2.7
    Neil Cotter Greens 7,7099.1+2.8
    Jesse SchneiderOne Nation7,2618.6+8.6
    Shyamal ReddyUnited Australia Party3,1343.7+3.7
    Ric DaviesLiberal Democrats2,3792.8-1.3
    Peter AndrewsConservative National Party1,5931.9+1.9
    Yusuf MohammadIndependent1,0241.2+1.2
    Informal7,1117.7+2.0

    2019 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Jim Chalmers Labor 47,89356.4-4.9
    Clinton Pattison Liberal National 36,97143.6+4.9

    Booth breakdown

    Polling places have been split into four geographic areas. Booths in the City of Brisbane have been grouped as “west”. Booths in the City of Logan have been split into South, East and North-East.

    The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 51.5% in the north-east to 63.6% in the east.

    Voter groupGRN prim %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
    South9.262.811,44913.5
    West10.053.711,42713.5
    East10.663.69,90211.7
    North-East12.451.57,8609.3
    Pre-poll7.255.630,60236.1
    Other votes9.352.913,62416.1

    Election results in Rankin at the 2019 federal election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal National Party and the Greens.

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    23 COMMENTS

    1. Excerpts from 2019

      winediamond December 14, 2018 at 7:06 am
      The assistant shadow treasurer, Dr Jim Chalmers. What a smart bloke. He reckons he can collect $25 Billion P/A from the black economy !!!!!. If it were that easy wouldn’t it have already happened ??. No .This bloke is so so smart that he knows stuff that has escaped everybody else !!. He knows best.!! More!! Better !!. A complete menace to the well being of our country.
      Consequently i remain extremely sceptical of anything this “genius” says.
      If he says our borders will remain secure, then i’ll be looking to buy shares in the business that runs detention centres !!

      winediamond December 14, 2018 at 7:07 am
      Jim Chalmers has an article in the Australian today. Predictably it is all about the govt budgetary failures, highlighting regime deficiencies, yada yada yada. Of course there is not the slightest acknowledgement of the previous govt ‘legacies”!!. Nor is there any comprehension of the total obstruction of the opposition to any spending reduction measures. The man is a totally unconscionable lying reprobate, & hypocrite.
      The good thing is that i now know that there is no point in listening to any thing the man says

      Obviously Chalmers has not evolved much. More like (he has) degenerated into a shallow, jokey, parody. Perhaps someone can explain how they can possibly see this bloke as a leader?

      Cory Bernardi is the same fixation :- Enthusiast/ Epicure TYPE 7 (Enneagram ). The differences are obvious Cory is decisive ,clear, passionate, & counter phobic (courageous ). In contrast Chalmers is vague, opaque , devious, & conflicted. He covers it up by attempting to appear casual, factual, logical, reasoned etc. However Chalmers is betrayed by his own shallowness, anger, arrogance, pride, & expediency. At least Shorten (type 5) never bothered to hide his vaulting ambition, & was prepared to ruthlessly do, whatever it would take to win. This bloke (Chalmers) doesn’t even really comprehend, let alone possess, that kind of strength of will/ ambition, or resolution.

    2. I think Labor will retain Rankin. There isn’t any ultra safe seats federally for Labor in Queensland, but I just don’t see the Liberals taking Rankin.

      There is no doubt Jim Chalmers is a rising star in the Labor party. But he still is very young, and there is risk of flaming out too soon if he took over the leadership if Anthony Albanese loses the next election. Mark Latham and Alexander Downer are classic examples.

      The obvious traits is he is based in Queensland (where Labor needs to make inroads) and he is very bright. From reports though Chalmers seems more content in playing the long game and hasn’t been pushing himself for the top job just yet.

    3. If Labor can’t retain Chalmer’s seat then not only would they not have a hope of winning the election, but they’d basically be at the stage where they’re only left with a seat or two in the entire state, if any. That sounds like a pretty far fetched scenario after just romping the state election last year, even with Albanese’s awful leadership.

      I suspect ON’s ballot harvesting won’t be nearly as much of a factor this election so there might even be a chance the ALP do better on 2PP, even in these satellite seats.

    4. Mark Mulcair
      Initially i felt a little hurt that you should say such a thing to me !. Then i wondered if you were trying to stir, have a go at me with a crack like that !?.

      So i’ll be (shockingly) self -indulgent in a dramatic lamentation :

      It is SO unfair to be cast as negative, judgemental or critical ( of politicians) Ive suffered so much ,& been so endlessly, forgiving, understanding & compassionate. I’ve searched endlessly for qualities, & attributes to admire & respect. So much disappointment & disillusionment. Still i’ve stayed the course. Kept faith with the promise of better things to come !. I’ve seized on any hint of relief like a thirsty traveller. Fulsome & expansive in my praise, for the slightest demonstration of competence, let alone enlightenment. AT Times almost sycophantic with adulation, & the smallest hint of promise. To the point of feeling self -betrayal, & humiliation. in reaching so hard & far as to feel (at times almost) disingenuous , & inauthentic in my acknowledgements.
      Have i nor eulogised the rare politician even showing the smallest sign of growth ?
      I demand to know who could have striven harder, endured & given more encouragement than i ?

      ” Geez “yourself….!
      cheers WD

    5. If a future redistribution pushes this seat more into Forde then this will become marginal. Same if Griffith got pushed into Bonner. If Brisbane continues to grow (it is one of if not the most fastest growing city in Australia) then some of the city seats may be pushed outwards and we may end up with another seat in Brisbane.

    6. Daniel
      Don’t you think Rankin will lose i’t area east of the M1? .That would mean it being drawn west not south.
      Similarly Griffith will probably move into Bonner as you suggest wouldn’t that mean being wholly east of the M1 ? Surely the next assessment will yield QLD/Brisbane a new seat?

    7. With the gentrification and skyscrapers coming to the South Brisbane area, Griffith will probably only get a little bit bigger. Having said that the Greens are closing in rapidly, albeit in small bursts, which makes their chances of winning the seat much better and more sustainable.

    8. A redistribution is unlikely to make Rankin competitive. If it shifts south (which I agree is likely) it would probably shed the marginal-ish suburbs in Brisbane City and retain the staunchly Labor suburbs in Logan City. Additionally, the suburbs it would pick up from Forde are marginal-to-Labor leaning.

      Secondly, Griffith is not going to push into Bonner. Bonner is more than 5% under quota on latest figures! (And in the unlikely event it did, Griffith would probably pick up Labor-leaning Mount Gravatt.)

      And it’s most unlikely there’ll be a new seat in Brisbane. If there’s a surplus in the south-east, then peripheral electorates like Blair and Longman will be drawn closer in.

    9. With population growth in SEQ, Queensland may be entitled to a 31st seat in the next redistribution. This would probably add a seat on the fringe of Brisbane metropolitan area, most likely in the Caboolture/Moreton Bay area as both Petrie and Longman are over quota.

    10. Hmm yeah, Queensland is once again the fastest growing state. I doubt that will be enough to reach 31 seats in the next term, and the seven year rule isn’t due to kick in until 2025. So the next Queensland redistribution will be the term after next, which could either be for 30 or 31 seats.

    11. NSW is due for a federal redistribution in the next term – not sure if new census figures will suggest its entitlement will fall to 46 seats or not.

    12. David
      There is a simple view of this. Griffith’s area west of the M1 is about the same as the eastern area (m1 ) of Rankin, & Forde. There are few stronger boundary’s than a freeway.
      Nt will lose a seat, & Vic will probably lose one too. So either, or both WA or QLD will get one.

      Yoh An. NSW has been growing strongly . Hard to see it losing a seat.

    13. I though NT had new legislation specifying a new harmonic mean, lowering the threshold to 1.33 quotas for a 2nd seat. Unless population decline has been so strong that NT will drop below 1.33 by the next apportionment date.

    14. Should the 2020 population growth rates be maintained in 2021 and 2022 – then it is likely that Victoria will lose a seat and WA gain one.
      If the same growth rates keep going, then by 2025, Victoria would lose another seat and Queensland pick up the extra.

    15. I am residing in the seat of Brisbane, living in the suburb of Kalinga/Wooloowin. It is just south of the border between Brisbane and Lilley Districts.

      In response to redistributed – this would be a reversal of the current redistribution with WA losing 1 seat and Victoria gaining one.

    16. John T(uchus)
      It will be interesting to see whether he pays more attention to mentor Keating in the future, than he did to dud Swan in the past. Either way he is in for a nightmare so bad it will probably destroy his political career, possibly his mental health too.

    17. Dear Winediamond, you are obviously in a state of annoyance that I called you a political whinger, although I believe I wasn’t alone in that sentiment. I apologise and will refrain from referring to you as Whingediamond as long as you grow up as well and don’t get personal with John T(uchus) Let’s show respect to each other. I still believe on the balance of all probabilities that Jim Chalmers will be Australia’s next Treasurer based on current polling indications. How good he is in that position time will tell, although I agree with you that he will have a rocky time of it.

    18. John T, I’ve said it before but it never hurts to repeat – polling this far out is less predictive than simply assuming a 50/50 result.

      Only one example (among many) but in 2001, Howard was down 45-55 in March and went on to win comfortably. Much can change in six months.

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