|Term due to expire 2022||Term due to expire 2025|
|Concetta Fierravanti-Wells (Liberal)||Tim Ayres (Labor)|
|Kristina Keneally (Labor)||Andrew Bragg (Liberal)|
|Jenny McAllister (Labor)||Perin Davey (Nationals)|
|Jim Molan (Liberal)1||Mehreen Faruqi (Greens)|
|Deborah O’Neill (Labor)||Hollie Hughes (Liberal)|
|Marise Payne (Liberal)||Tony Sheldon (Labor)|
1Jim Molan replaced Arthur Sinodinos on 14 November 2019 following Sinodinos’ resignation.
Dating back to 1951, when the Senate for the first time was entirely made up of Senators elected by proportional representation, Senate representation from New South Wales has been relatively stable. Up until 1958 the numbers remained steady with 5 ALP senators, 4 Liberal senators and 1 Country Party senator. 1958 saw the Country Party win a seat off the ALP, giving the Coalition a 6-4 majority amongst NSW senators. The ALP gained two seats in 1961, giving them a 6-4 majority. The Country Party recovered a second seat in 1964, restoring an even balance of ALP and Coalition senators. In 1970, the sitting Country Party senator was defeated, as was the Country Party senator who had filled a casual vacancy, meaning that the party lost both its seats, while the Democratic Labor Party won a NSW senate seat for the only time. The result produced a 6-4 majority for the ALP over the right-wing parties.
The 1974 double dissolution restored the 5-4-1 balance between the Labor, Liberal and Country Party, which was maintained in 1975. 1977 saw the ALP lose one of its five senate seats to the Australian Democrats. This 4-4-1-1 balance was maintained in 1980. The 1983 double dissolution saw the Liberal Party lose a seat to the ALP, seeing five ALP senators, three Liberals, and one senator each for the Democrats and National Country Party. This result produced a 6-4 majority for parties of the left for the first time 1970. The ALP and Democrats collectively maintained a majority in the NSW senate delegation for the entirety of the Labor government.
The 1984 election saw the Senate’s size increased, with New South Wales gaining an eleventh and twelfth senator. The Democrats and the National Country Party each maintained a single senator whilst the ALP gained a sixth and the Liberals a fourth. The 1987 double dissolution saw the ALP lose its sixth senator to the Nuclear Disarmament Party. The 1990 election saw the ALP and Democrats each gain a senator, at the expense of the Liberals and NDP, producing a result of 6 ALP, 3 Liberals, 2 Democrats, 1 National. This gave the ALP and Democrats an 8-4 majority. In 1993 the Democrats lost a seat, with the Nationals gaining a second senator in NSW for the first time since 1970.
In 1996, the ALP lost a senate seat to the Liberals, producing an even split between the ALP and Democrats and the Coalition. The left gained a majority again, however, in 1998, when the Nationals lost a senator to the Democrats. In 2001, Democrat Vickie Bourne was defeated by Greens candidate Kerry Nettle, maintaining a 7-5 left-right split.
The last Democrat, Aden Ridgeway, was defeated in 2004, replaced by Nationals candidate Fiona Nash, restoring a 6-6 split between the ALP and Greens and the Coalition. The 2007 election saw the ALP win a sixth senate seat at the expense of the Greens. This was the first election since 1975 to result with NSW having no minor party senators, with a 6-6 split between the ALP and the Coalition.
In 2010, the Greens won back a single Greens seat, with former state MP Lee Rhiannon moving to the Senate. The ALP lost one of their three seats to the Greens, while the Liberal Party maintained their three seats.
In 2013, the Coalition maintained their three seats, while Labor lost their third seat to the Liberal Democrats’ David Leyonhjelm. The LDP benefited from a massive donkey vote thanks to a good ballot position on an extremely large ballot, polling 9.5%. Labor was reduced to four NSW senators for the first time since the Senate was expanded.
The 2016 double dissolution only produced one change in the party balance. Labor maintained four seats, while the Greens and the Liberal Democrats held on to their single seats. The Coalition lost one of their six seats, which went to One Nation.
The right-wing minor parties were pushed out in 2019. The Liberal Democrats lost their single seat, while Brian Burston, who had left One Nation and joined the United Australia Party, also lost. Both Labor and the Coalition gained a seat.
|Shooters, Fishers and Farmers||119,408||2.5||+0.6||0.1780|
|Help End Marijuana Prohibition||99,644||2.1||+1.5||0.1486|
|Christian Democratic Party||75,510||1.6||-1.1||0.1126|
|United Australia Party||69,911||1.5||+1.5||0.1042|
|Rise Up Australia||33,269||0.7||+0.5||0.0496|
|Independents For Climate Action Now||26,734||0.6||+0.6||0.0399|
Four seats were won on primary votes: two for the Coalition and two for Labor.
There are ten candidates left in the race for the final two seats. This included three incumbent minor party senators from the Greens, the Liberal Democrats and United Australia. It also included the third Labor and Coalition candidates. Sitting Liberal senator Jim Molan, who was placed in the fourth spot on the Coalition ticket, remained in the race with a strong below-the-line vote:
- Mehreen Faruqi (GRN) – 0.7380 quotas
- Perin Davey (NAT) – 0.5397
- Kate McCulloch (ON) – 0.4033
- Brett Cooke (SFF) – 0.2159
- Andrew Katelaris (HEMP) – 0.2146
- Jim Molan (LIB) – 0.2142
- Jason Yat-Sen Li (ALP) – 0.1588
- Duncan Spender (LDP) – 0.1568
- Silvana Nile (CDP) – 0.1417
- Brian Burston (UAP) – 0.1332
Burston was eliminated. About a third of his preferences went to his former party, followed by the Coalition and Labor:
- Faruqi (GRN) – 0.7452
- Davey (NAT) – 0.5655
- McCulloch (ON) – 0.4461
- Cooke (SFF) – 0.2250
- Katelaris (HEMP) – 0.2204
- Molan (LIB) – 0.2145
- Li (ALP) – 0.1701
- Spender (LDP) – 0.1629
- Nile (CDP) – 0.1474
44% of CDP preferences flowed straight to the Nationals. One Nation, the Liberal Democrats and Labor also received over 0.01 quota:
- Faruqi (GRN) – 0.7514
- Davey (NAT) – 0.6309
- McCulloch (ON) – 0.4638
- Cooke (SFF) – 0.2322
- Katelaris (HEMP) – 0.2231
- Molan (LIB) – 0.2171
- Li (ALP) – 0.1830
- Spender (LDP) – 0.1803
Liberal Democrat preferences favoured the Nationals and One Nation:
- Faruqi (GRN) – 0.7691
- Davey (NAT) – 0.6813
- McCulloch (ON) – 0.4961
- Cooke (SFF) – 0.2426
- Katelaris (HEMP) – 0.2299
- Molan (LIB) – 0.2177
- Li (ALP) – 0.2067
Labor preferences primarily favoured the Greens, with some going to the Nationals:
- Faruqi (GRN) – 0.8547
- Davey (NAT) – 0.7134
- McCulloch (ON) – 0.5090
- Cooke (SFF) – 0.2543
- Katelaris (HEMP) – 0.2413
- Molan (LIB) – 0.2185
Molan had been largely stranded on slightly more than one fifth of a quota, unable to gain preferences from above-the-line votes as long as Davey remained in the race. His preferences mostly flowed to Davey, pushing her into the lead:
- Davey (NAT) – 0.8697
- Faruqi (GRN) – 0.8571
- McCulloch (ON) – 0.5527
- Cooke (SFF) – 0.2610
- Katelaris (HEMP) – 0.2431
HEMP preferences scattered across the four remaining candidates. The Greens received the most preferences, but it was barely a quarter of the HEMP total:
- Faruqi (GRN) – 0.9269
- Davey (NAT) – 0.9124
- McCulloch (ON) – 0.5751
- Cooke (SFF) – 0.3040
At this point it was numerically impossible for McCulloch to catch up to Faruqi and Davey, even if she received every Shooters preference, which she did not:
- Davey (NAT) – 0.9743
- Faruqi (GRN) – 0.9576
- McCulloch (ON) – 0.6771
Davey and Faruqi won the last two seats.
- A – Darren Brollo (Animal Justice)
- B – Steve Keen (New Liberals)
- C – Kingsley Liu (Citizens Party)
- D – Georgia Lamb (Sustainable Australia)
- E – David Shoebridge (Greens)
- F – Max Boddy (Independent)
- G – Liberal/Nationals
- H – Jane Caro (Reason)
- I – Paula Sanchez (Socialist Alliance)
- J – Ross Jones (Federal ICAC Now)
- K – Steven Baty (Democrats)
- L – Owen Whyman (Indigenous-Aboriginal Party)
- M – Shane Djuric (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
- N – Dessie Kocher (Seniors United)
- O – Michael O’Neill (Informed Medical Options)
- P – Matthew Hopkins (Great Australian Party)
- Q – Michael Balderstone (Legalise Cannabis)
- R – Andrea Leong (Fusion)
- S – Kate McCulloch (One Nation)
- T – John Ruddick (Liberal Democrats)
- U – Selena Clancy (Australian Values)
- V – Labor
- W – Domenic Martino (United Australia)
- Danny Lim
- Julie Collins
- Warren Grzic
- Guitang Lu
- William Laing
Labor and the Coalition will each retain two seats. This will see the Nationals regain the second New South Wales Senate seat which was lost when Fiona Nash was disqualified from her Senate seat in 2017.
It is likely that the last two seats will split between the left and the right. The Coalition would be favourites for the third right-wing seat, but sitting senator Fierravanti-Wells will need to see off challengers from parties like One Nation.
The third left seat may go to Labor or the Greens depending on how well the two parties perform. Labor would need a substantial swing to them to overtake the Greens. If the two parties have similar votes to 2019 but with a small swing to Labor, those preferences will just make the Greens position more secure.