Melbourne – Australia 2022

GRN 21.8% vs LIB

Incumbent MP
Adam Bandt, since 2010.

Geography
Central Melbourne. Melbourne covers the Melbourne CBD, as well as the inner city suburbs of North Melbourne, Parkville, Carlton, Docklands, Abbotsford, Fitzroy, Ascot Vale, Clifton Hill, Richmond and East Melbourne. The seat covers most of the City of Melbourne north of the Yarra River, as well as a majority of the City of Yarra and a small part of the Moreland council area

Redistribution
Melbourne lost Kensington to Maribyrnong and gained Clifton Hill from Cooper and a small part of Brunswick East from Wills.

History

Melbourne is an original Federation seat, and was held by the ALP for over one hundred years before it was won by the Greens in 2010.

The seat was first won by Malcolm McEacharn, the former Mayor of Melbourne, who joined the Protectionist Party. Although McEacharn had defeated his Labor opponent William Maloney with over 60% of the vote in 1901, the 1903 election saw McEacharn only defeat Maloney by 77 votes, and the result was declared void after allegations that the result was tainted.

Maloney defeated McEacharn at the following by-election in 1904, and the ALP held Melbourne for the next century. Maloney polled over 60% at the 1906 election, and never polled less than 60% as he held the seat right through to 1940. Indeed, Maloney was elected unopposed at two elections. Maloney retired in 1940 but died before the 1940 election. He never held a frontbench role, and holds the record for the longest term of service without serving as a frontbencher.

The seat was won in 1940 by Arthur Calwell. Calwell held the seat for thirty-two years. He served as Minister for Immigration in Ben Chifley’s government from 1945 to 1949. He served as HV Evatt’s Deputy Leader from 1951 until 1960, when he became Leader of the Opposition.

Calwell led the ALP into three federal elections. The ALP was defeated by a slim margin at the 1961 election, but suffered a larger defeat in 1963 and a solid Liberal landslide in 1966. Calwell was replaced as Leader by Gough Whitlam in 1967 and Calwell retired in 1972. At no time did the seat of Melbourne come under any serious danger of being lost.

The seat was won in 1972 by Ted Innes, who held the seat until 1983.

He was succeeded by Gerry Hand, who served as a federal minister from 1987 until his retirement at the 1993 election.

The seat was won in 1993 by Lindsay Tanner. Tanner became a frontbencher following the defeat of the Labor government in 1996, and served on the Labor frontbench right until the election of the Rudd government, and served as Finance Minister in the first term of the Labor government.

The seat of Melbourne had been considered a safe Labor seat for over a century, but at the 2007 election the Greens overtook the Liberals on preferences and came second, and the two-candidate-preferred vote saw the ALP’s margin cut to 4.7%.

In 2010, Tanner retired, and his seat was won by the Greens’ Adam Bandt, who had first run for the seat in 2007.

Bandt was elected with the benefit of preferences from the Liberal Party, but in 2013 managed to win a second term despite the Liberal Party preferencing Labor. Despite losing these preferences, Bandt’s margin was only cut by 0.6%, and his primary vote jumped 7%. Bandt was re-elected with a much bigger margin in 2016, with Labor falling into third place. Bandt increased his margin further in 2019.

Bandt was elected leader of the Australian Greens in early 2020.

Candidates

  • Justin Borg (United Australia)
  • Keir Paterson (Labor)
  • Adam Bandt (Greens)
  • James Damches (Liberal)
  • Richard Peppard (Liberal Democrats)
  • Scott Robson (Independent)
  • Walter Stragan (One Nation)
  • Bruce Poon (Animal Justice)
  • Colleen Bolger (Victorian Socialists)
  • Assessment
    Melbourne is a very safe Greens seat.

    2019 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
    Adam Bandt Greens 45,87649.3+4.748.1
    Lauren Sherson Liberal 19,97921.5-3.321.2
    Luke Creasey Labor 18,37119.7-4.221.1
    Judy RyanReason4,7565.1+5.14.9
    Lawrence PopeAnimal Justice1,8492.0+0.22.0
    Dave BlakeIndependent1,1541.2+1.21.2
    Tony PecoraUnited Australia Party1,0791.2+1.21.2
    Others0.3
    Informal2,8963.0+0.5

    2019 two-candidate-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
    Adam Bandt Greens 66,85271.8+2.871.8
    Lauren Sherson Liberal 26,21228.2-2.828.2

    2019 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
    Luke Creasey Labor 62,41067.1+0.167.8
    Lauren Sherson Liberal 30,65432.9-0.132.2

    Booth breakdown

    Booths have been divided into three areas. Fitzroy, Carlton and Abbotsford are grouped as North-East. East Melbourne and Richmond are grouped as South-East. Booths close to the Melbourne CBD are grouped as Central.

    The Greens won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 67.4% in the south-east to 77.6% in the north-east.

    Labor outpolled the Liberal Party in the north-east, while the Liberal Party outpolled Labor in the south-east and west.

    Voter groupLIB primALP primGRN 2CPTotal votes% of votes
    North-East12.419.677.620,75522.5
    South-East26.417.267.411,63712.6
    West21.218.471.59,60210.4
    Pre-poll23.423.167.933,67336.4
    Other votes24.023.365.716,74718.1

    Election results in Melbourne at the 2019 federal election
    Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Greens vs Labor/Liberal), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Greens, the Liberal Party and Labor.

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    79 COMMENTS

    1. What swing would be required to flip this from Greens to ALP? I find the 2PP with liberal party confusing to understand the actual margin in this seat.

    2. 2013 was the last time that the preference count was Green vs ALP. In that election it was 55.27% to the Greens on a primary vote of 42.6%. Taking into account that at the last election, the Greens won 49.3% of the PV, the margin is probably upwards of 12% – if not higher. For the ALP to be in with a show, it would seem that the Greens would need a primary vote starting with a 3 and a strong flow of Lib preferences to the ALP. I don’t think that Adam Bandt has much to worry about.

    3. Thanks redistributed.

      However, I do think it is relevant that Labor disendorsed their candidate in 2019, which would have inflated the greens vote. When you compare the result to Cooper, which saw a 15.5% swing against the Greens, Wills with a 4.3% swing against the Greens, and Macnamara with a stagnant Greens vote, it may be the case that the Greens would have suffered a swing against them in Melbourne with an endorsed Labor candidate.

      Obviously Bandt has a strong personal vote, and being leader of the party will add to that, but it is worth considering the loss of Greens primary votes in surrounding seats.

    4. Choice of candidate probably has an impact, with the Greens nominating a lower profile candidate for Cooper that caused some of the swing against them.

    5. Greens basically pulled out of Cooper to lick their wounds in 2019, after 2 major losses in 2018. Celeste Liddle is a star candidate and Greens seem to be putting resources into Darebin again, especially after they survived the 2020 council gerrymander.

      Melbourne isn’t a safe Green seat but Bandt seems to have a very strong local MP effect. The Greens vote collapsed in Ascot Vale as soon as it was moved to Maribyrnong. I think the seat is his for as long as he wants it, but if he retires Labor could win the election after.

    6. I don’t understand why Labor throw resources here, Tanya has visited this seat with Labor candidate. If Labor want to get into office they need to win seats from the LNP not here.

    7. This seat is guaranteed to be a OneNation Pick up!

      Firstly Adam Bandt and the Greens are extremely out of touch with the conservative electorates of Collingwood and Fitzroy, I’ve met neighbours that believe Adam is wasting tax payer dollars for fighting for funding to increase and improve the Kensington station, a lot of voters in this electorate are also against taking strong climate action, it’s home to around 85% coal miners and a Green’s MP just doesn’t make sense here

      Pauline Hanson made the right choice nominating someone for this seat

    8. Mark, how can Melbourne be home to coal miners when its right in the heart of the city centre? The seat might have small pockets of conservative voting suburbs like you indicated but I don’t see any way for one nation or the Liberals to flip this seat any time soon.

    9. Yeah could be, I recall there was a Queensland state district called Fitzroy based in the Capricornia area so maybe Mark is confusing Melbourne with central Queensland.

      Still, a quick check of the electorate name would be enough to confirm the general location.

    10. It was definitely sarcasm, a witty way of saying it makes no sense for One Nation to waste resources running a candidate here.

      Collingwood and Fitzroy are arguably the two most progressive suburbs in all of Australia.

    11. You’re probably right Trent, I did re-read Mark’s comment and it did sound more like sarcasm, poking fun at why One Nation would be running here. Although I would also add that the Greens also run in many rural seats where there vote barely reaches 4-5%, which wouldn’t be that different from One nation running in inner city seats like Melbourne.

    12. You’re probably right Trent, I did re-read Mark’s comment and it did sound more like sarcasm, poking fun at why One Nation would be running here. Although I would also add that the Greens also run in many rural seats where there vote barely reaches 4-5%, which wouldn’t be that different from One nation running in inner city seats like Melbourne.

    13. Hey Guys, Mark here, it wasn’t sarcasm, firstly I respect all parties running in safe seats and same goes for One Nation in Melbourne, every vote is worth $2.97 ish according to the AEC so every vote literally funds the parties.

      I exaggerated a little bit but still believe Melbourne is OneNation’s for the taking, I currently live in Mildura but was told that it’s coal central over there and a extremely anti greens climate, assuming Melbourne is coal central, OneNation plays perfectly into the electorate

    14. Labor’s campaign in Melbourne is the best run since Bandt took the seat. I am confident that the seat will be marginal ALP-GRN after the election. My guess is ~54-46 to the Greens. Greens voters are starting to feel like voting green does not achieve a huge amount, after 12 years of Bandt and very little change in Aus climate policy, there is definitely an atmosphere that Labor is a more pragmatic alternative.

    15. Sprout

      There is zero chance this seat will be even remotely marginal, and the concept that Labor are strong on climate change is also laughable, you ALP hack.

    16. I agree more with Ryan, the Labor Party will struggle to defeat Bandt because he is a popular local member and his legal background is well suited for actively targeting issues like climate change and social justice.

      Also the reason why climate policy has struggled to gain traction whilst Bandt is the MP is because most of that time was during the Coalition government since 2013 who have pretty much stonewalled any meaningful action on climate change. The biggest changes started with Rudd post 2007 and were strengthened during the minority Gillard government.

    17. I expect Labor to come second on primaries, but still be significantly (around 25%) behind Bandt. The Green vote in Melbourne is solid. If most Liberal voters preference Labor it will close the 2PP gap, but I can’t see it getting anywhere near marginal this election.

    18. There is a significant chance that Bandt`s 2CP margin will significantly decline, however, this has very little to do with Bandt because it would be mainly due to Bandt`s 2CP opponent changing due to shifts in the 3CP. Bandt has a large margin against the Liberals, because he gets ALP preferences, which is what came through on the 2CP in the last 2 elections because the ALP came 3rd. Bandt usually has a significantly tighter margin against the ALP because the Liberals direct advise their voters to preference the ALP, however, this has been hidden by the ALP relatively narrowly coming 3rd in the 3CP (0.3% in 2016 and with a disendorsed candidate in 2019 it was 2.3%). The current election is looking like a very bad election for the Liberals and a better election for the ALP (particularly in the demographics of inner city Liberals who vote in Melbourne) and therefore there is a significant likelihood that Bandt will be facing an ALP candidate who gets the Liberals advising their voters to preference the ALP.

    19. There has been quite a lot of One Nation advertising material throughout the electorate, I noticed that most phone booths in Fitzroy and Collingwood are advertising the candidate.

      Unsure exactly what the intention is from One Nation here, considering the demographics of the area. This was pointed out a few weeks ago in these comments, but in the meantime they seem to have proliferated. Whether this is just a way of advertising the One Nation brand to the large number of out of division visitors, I am unsure.

    20. I find that so bizarre Connor, what a waste of money. I remember seeing movies in Carlton recently which had 2 minute UAP ads and trying to think of a worse seat for far right parties to advertise in.

    21. ^^Probably just about any seat in WA is worse for the UAP at the moment. Palmer is truly despised here after attempting to sue the state for $30 billion and then McGowan for defamation. I was shocked at the number of UAP billboards when I was in Sydney a few weeks ago – there are some billboards and ads in Perth but in Sydney it looked as if he’d bought out every second one!

    22. Ryan

      I am not saying ALP is strong enough on climate, I am just reporting what I have felt in the seat. I’ve lived in Melbourne my whole life, and this is the first election since Bandt won that people I know who previously voted Greens have decided to vote for Labor again. Obviously this is anecdotal, but I do not think it is unreasonable to predict that the final margin will be around 55-45 to the Greens.

    23. The ONP candidate’s online behaviour is fairly interesting. I think the amount of advertising here is due to the ONP candidate’s personal wealth and his bizarre notion that he is a genuine chance in one of the most left-leaning seats in the country. Something tells me he hasn’t been doing any door knocking in Fitzroy and Collingwood.

    24. Labor did indeed improve here and will finish second, but Bandt has also improved to win the seat on primaries.

      Labor might be best off to acknowledge they’re not winning here any time soon, and focus their efforts on battling the Greens elsewhere.

    25. It’s nice to see what the Green/Labor margin is this time, since Labor is always going to be a better challenger to the Greens here than the Liberals. Even when the Liberals come second.

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