McPherson – Australia 2022

LNP 12.2%

Incumbent MP
Karen Andrews, since 2010.

Geography
Southern end of the Gold Coast. McPherson covers the Gold Coast’s border with New South Wales and stretches up the coast to Burleigh Heads and covers inland Gold Coast as far north as Clear Island Waters and Merrimac.

History

McPherson was created as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives in 1949, and it has always been held by Coalition parties: by the Country Party until 1972 and by the Liberal Party from 1972 until the Liberal National Party merger in recent years.

The seat was first won in 1949 by Country Party leader Arthur Fadden, who became Treasurer in the post-war Menzies government. Fadden had briefly served as Prime Minister during the Second World War and had previously held Darling Downs since 1936.

Fadden held the seat until his retirement in 1958, when he was replaced by the Country Party’s Charles Barnes. Barnes served as a minister from 1963 until just before the 1972 election, and retired at that election.

At the 1972 election the seat of McPherson was lost by the Country Party to Liberal candidate Eric Robinson. Robinson served as a junior minister in the first term of the Fraser government and was appointed Finance Minister in 1977. He briefly stood down in 1979 due to a dispute with Malcolm Fraser, and was dropped from the ministry after the 1980 election. He died suddenly in January 1981.

The 1981 by-election was won by state Liberal MP Peter White, who defeated National Country Party senator Glen Sheil. White held McPherson at the 1983, 1984 and 1987 elections, and retired in 1990.

McPherson was won in 1990 by the Liberal Party’s John Bradford. Bradford held the seat until 1998. In April 1998 he resigned from the Liberal Party and joined the Christian Democratic Party. He contested the Senate in Queensland in 1998 for the CDP but was not elected.

McPherson was won in 1998 by Margaret May, who held the seat for the next four terms. May briefly served as a shadow minister under Brendan Nelson and Malcolm Turnbull but then returned to the backbench and retired in 2010.

At the 2010 election, the LNP’s Karen Andrews won the seat, and she has held the seat ever since. Andrews joined the cabinet in 2018 and now serves as Minister for Home Affairs.

Candidates

  • Karen Andrews (Liberal National)
  • Kevin Hargraves (One Nation)
  • Gary Pead (Federation)
  • Scott Turner (Greens)
  • Andy Cullen (Australian Values)
  • Joshua Berrigan (United Australia)
  • Glenn Pyne (Liberal Democrats)
  • Carl Ungerer (Labor)
  • Assessment
    McPherson has been a remarkably stable seat for the LNP, without much in the way of swings. It should stay solidly in LNP hands at the next election.

    2019 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Karen Andrews Liberal National 44,63448.2-5.1
    Aaron Santelises Labor 21,13822.8-3.2
    Alan Quinn Greens 10,16711.0+0.7
    John SpellmanOne Nation5,4215.9+5.9
    Scott CroweLiberal Democrats3,2223.5+3.5
    Fiona MackenzieUnited Australia Party3,0783.3+3.3
    Renee StewartAnimal Justice2,3672.6+2.6
    Michael KaffIndependent1,6481.8+1.8
    Sean GaffyConservative National Party8460.9+0.9
    Informal6,2506.3+1.9

    2019 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Karen Andrews Liberal National 57,54562.2+0.6
    Aaron Santelises Labor 34,97637.8-0.6

    Booth breakdown

    Booths have been divided into three areas:

    • North-East – Burleigh, Varsity Lakes.
    • North-West – Mudgeeraba, Reedy Creek, Robina.
    • South – Coolangatta, Currumbin, Elanora, Palm Beach, Tallebudgera.

    The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 56.4% in the south to 64.9% in the north-west.

    The Greens primary vote ranged from 9.7% in the north-west to 15% in the south.

    Voter groupGRN prim %LNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
    South15.056.418,21519.7
    North-West9.764.911,36212.3
    North-East12.957.410,47111.3
    Pre-poll9.564.339,77643.0
    Other votes9.465.412,69713.7

    Election results in McPherson at the 2019 federal election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.

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    28 COMMENTS

    1. Carl Ungerer is the Labor candidate for McPherson according to QLP twitter.

      I don’t understand why Labor would even put remote effort into this federally. They act as if this is winnable on twitter, It really isn’t. The last time the Gold Coast was Labor was probably during the Curtin years. It’s been 80 years. Not a chance in hell freezing over for Labor to win this unless the Liberals are absolutely annihilated nationwide.

      Perhaps this could set him up for a run in Currumbin in 2024 against Laura Gerber?

    2. Carl Ungerer was a Labor candidate for Mermaid Beach at the 2020 QLD state election. He didn’t do too bad either with a 5.7% increase on his primary vote. The margin for Mermaid Beach is now only 4.4%. Funny enough, I thought it was a safer LNP state seat then that.

      This is an obvious LNP retain. But I disagree with Daniel in terms for Labor of completely non-competing in these seats. As a good result for Labor in these type seats can translate to the senate vote. Labor only knows that too well after winning only one senate seat at the last federal election in Queensland. By saying that yeah I wouldn’t expect too many resources from Labor in this seat.

    3. Labor Twitter is very dumb, but I think PN is pretty much spot on here. The Greens have similar thoughts about the Coasts; we can imagine modest gains in our primary vote, but nobody seriously thinks we’ll get lower house seats out of them anytime soon. But of course, we want another Senator too.

      I’ve always wondered why the Coasts have such a huge number of ‘split ticketers’, or state Labor/federal LNP voters. The intuitive answer is taxes, especially ‘retirement’ taxes, but the LNP didn’t increase their margins all that much at the last election. I wonder how much research has been done on it.

    4. I tend to think a large part of Ungerer doing well at the last QLD state election is in large part due to who he was running against, Mermaid Ray should have been given his marching orders years ago

      A less contentious and controversial LNP state candidate, and the margin would be considerably lagrer in all likelihood

    5. Carl Ungerer is a good Labor candidate,
      although the Liberal scare campaign on supposed tax increases and the loss
      of franking credits under Labor worked well on the Gold Coast last time .Albanese won’t make himself as much of a target for a scare campaign as Shorten did. There will be a slight swing against the coalition, but Liberals will retain.

    6. Joshua Berrigan from the United Australia Party is the BEST candidate running this election. He is a impressive person with a strong business and legal background. Josh has spent the past 15 years working in the community to help our most vulnerable kids build a better future. He genuinely loves and cares about his community. And everyone who meets Josh quickly see’s he is the person we NEED in politics… as is evidence by the hundred’s of video testimonials you can watch on his Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/joshuaberrigan.mcpherson/

    7. Voting Josh Berrigan for United Australia Party this year. Always voted for the majors in the past but I’ve lost confidence in them after the past few years atrocious decision making. Josh is an everyday family man and a stand up Bloke who is a part of our community that’s wanting to effect change. I read the other day Karen Andrews has half a dozen investment properties- what a joke! Give locals a chance of home ownership rather than being the Landlord fattening your pocket Karen!! Josh Berrigan for UAP has my vote.

    8. The LNP and ALP will fight each other thinking we stand no chance. The best way to win this is focus on the Greens 11percent . We must honesty discredit using their own stated policies and what they will do in concert with Labour. They ARE NOT actually a Green Party, they are a hard LEFT of Labour party simply using the green lobby to dupe voters with fear of the unknown. If we can get that 11percent, with other preferences this is winable. Go to it.

    9. Jacqueline, it’s perfectly understandable to lose confidence in the major parties given how out of touch they’ve been on issues like affordable housing. But may I ask, what leads you to be confident in the UAP to create change on this matter? From what I’ve seen of their policies, the only one relating to housing affordability is their desire to cap interest rates at 3%, but I’m stumped as to how they’ll accomplish that, since interest rates are set by commercial banks, influenced by Reserve Bank policy, not government policy. What leads you to believe they can make this happen if it’s not something the government has control over?

    10. Josh Berrigan for me he is not a career politician he is a genuine person who i believe has a genuine interest in making our country a better place for everyone. I have met josh and i was taken back for the first time in 40 years I I believed in what he had to say and the policies were great and a chance to get this country back on track. I have voted labor for 40 years time for change something we will not get from Liberal, Labor or Greens. Vote 1 Josh Berrigan. If you would like to see Josh in person go to the Palmer Colonial golf course at 6.30 pm on Tuesday evening for an hour and listen to what Josh has to say you will be impressed.

    11. Wilson, the other UAP policy that will focus on housing affordability is the $1T in super to be invested in Australia. Much of that will go to affordable housing to increase supply. I will definitely be voting 1 UAP with preference to LNP. Having g me Josh Berrigan, he is an outstanding human being. We need them in parliament. The UAP policies are the only ones that MIGHY save us from the economic catastrophe that is about to rain down on us.

    12. I think people that think this is a two party race still are dreaming after what the coalition has done to Australia in the last 2 years. They’ve racked up the same amount of debt in 2 years than the last 40 years. How the hell did they do that… they do everything for the benefit of the lobbyists groups and global powers that threaten them. Josh Berrigan is a weapon and under United Australia party will change the course of this big party globalist monopoly sell out of Australia. “For we are young / one and free”. Lets try and keep it that way! United Australia Party and Josh Berrigan only choice to keep Australia free. The two majors may as well be the same party

    13. I will have no hesitation Voting for Joshua Berrigan UAP at this upcoming election. Josh is not a career politician but, someone who understands and has a passion for people and their needs. He is a family man married to Shea, they have 2 young children and live locally in Elanora. In the past I have voted for the Liberal party.
      They have badly lead our great country of Australia into a disastrous position and Labor and the greens are no better.
      Vote 1 Joshua Berrigan for McPherson. ✅

    14. Not sure what detail there is in that policy but from the way you describe it, forcing super funds to invest more in Australian markets is probably going to result in them spending more on property that’s already on the market, which would be the last thing you want in terms of increasing affordable housing.

      Very curious coincidence that five separate, very real and unrelated people decided to pick today to share their psephological insight and intense excitement for the UAP candidate

    15. Okay I’ve been letting comments through until now but a flood of people talking about why they’re voting for one candidate is not really in the spirit of this comments section.

    16. Well said Ben. The comments above seemed to be a deliberate attempt to give relevance to the UAP.The endless UAP media ads are bad enough without this blatant attempt above at campaigning.

    17. Ben fully support your reasonable position. 90% on this site have some sort of political alliegence. So all of us expect the occasional warning overtly written or implied. We all stray of the straight an narrow occasionally and the sight of a veiled fist is part of the cost of political commentary. So far I give you a mark of 10/10.

    18. Okay, no more comments praising the UAP candidate from new commenters thank you very much. You’re not adding anything. The comments policy specifically prohibits using the comments section to run your campaign. No-one is being fooled into thinking it’s organic.

    19. Furtive, I get your point on the super companies spending, but if you create a scheme where the properties they build can only be sold for say cost+15%, then that keeps the supply affordable and gives the super company a good return.

    20. Plenty of internal national migration to the GC in the past three years, they bring their politics with them. Karen Andrews’ stance on the Biloela family and deafening silence on climate change is going to hurt her.

    21. I’m a local dude. I’m not in any campaign. I randomly came here from a Google search to see if there was any early results.

      I do know Josh and will be voting for him after being left leaning most my voting life. I can genuinely say that there isn’t anyone I know who is more suited to this task. He is the real deal. Not only a smart and excellent communicator, but also genuinely integrous and caring.

      And knowing him and the effect he has on people, I also will straight up say I don’t think there is any targeted campaign to spam these comments sections. So many of us have been hurt by government and he has genuinely given us hope. I think you are seeing a genuine groundswell campaign though I don’t deny that the amount of signage funding probably was decent hahaha!

    22. McPherson, along with Fairfax and maybe Wide Bay, is really starting to look like the ideal Climate 200 beachhead in Queensland. The LNP still has a commanding lead on 2pp with Labor, but it’s now under 60/40 in the LNP’s favor, which obviously the Teals overcame multiple times at the recent election. The numbers of irreligious people are now comparable to Ryan, Griffith and Brisbane, and most of Sydney’s North Shore for that matter- while not a perfect rubric by any means, it does indicate somewhat less socially-conservative demographics than most LNP seats. However the minor right-wing parties still command a significant combined vote, far more than they do in Brisbane or inner-city Sydney and Melbourne, so there definitely is more of a rusted-on socially conservative vote. Still, not insurmountable imo.

      The Greens now poll well 20% in many McPherson booths, particularly the state seat of Burleigh, and parts of Currumbin. At a glance you could even go so far as to say it’s almost looking competitive for them, perhaps comparable to Clayfield and Stafford, and maybe even Moggill. I suspect however that postal voting is more prevalent there which could skew the on-the-day booth results to look more significant than they are. Might be worth treating as an outside chance at least.

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