Longman – Australia 2022

LNP 3.3%

Incumbent MP
Terry Young, since 2019.

Geography
Moreton Bay region of Queensland. Longman covers the former Caboolture Shire and parts of the former Pine Rivers shire. The main towns in the seat are Caboolture, Morayfield, Burpengary and Narangba. The seat also covers a majority of Bribie Island.

History
Longman was created for the 1996 election. It was first won by Mal Brough. Brough held the seat from 1996 until 2007, during which time Brough served as a minister from 2001 and joined the Howard cabinet in 2006.

Brough was defeated in 2007 in one of the nation’s largest swings against a Coalition MP, with a 10.3% swing giving the seat to the ALP’s Jon Sullivan. Sullivan was previously the state member for Caboolture for nine years before losing to the One Nation candidate in 1998.

In 2010, Jon Sullivan was defeated by Liberal National candidate Wyatt Roy. Roy was elected at the age of 20 in 2010, and is the youngest ever member of the House of Representatives. Roy was elected to a second term in 2013. Roy lost in 2016 to Labor candidate Susan Lamb.

Lamb was forced to resign from parliament in early 2018 due to her late citizenship renunciation in 2016, but she was re-elected at the resulting by-election.

Lamb’s by-election success was not repeated in 2019, when she lost to Liberal National candidate Terry Young.

Candidates

  • Rebecca Fanning (Labor)
  • Stefanie Sutherland (United Australia)
  • Nigel Quinlan (Legalise Cannabis)
  • Earl Snijders (Greens)
  • Ross Taylor (One Nation)
  • Jens Lipponer (Liberal Democrats)
  • Paula Gilbard (Animal Justice)
  • Terry Young (Liberal National)
  • Assessment
    Longman is a very marginal seat and is the most marginal LNP seat in Queensland.

    2019 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Terry Young Liberal National 38,41138.6-0.4
    Susan Lamb Labor 33,94934.1-1.3
    Matthew ThomsonOne Nation13,16013.2+3.8
    Simone Dejun Greens 6,6846.7+2.3
    Bailey James MaherUnited Australia Party3,3443.4+3.4
    Dave PaulkeConservative National Party1,9672.0+2.0
    Peter Keith SchubackAustralia First1,0691.1+1.1
    Jono YoungProgressives9651.0+1.0
    Informal6,1735.8-2.7

    2019 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Terry Young Liberal National 53,03753.3+4.1
    Susan Lamb Labor 46,51246.7-4.1

    Booth breakdown

    Booths have been divided into four areas. Booths near Bribie Island have been grouped as Pumicestone. Booths in the remainder of the seat have been divided in three: from north to south, these are West, Caboolture-Morayfield and Burpengary.

    The Liberal National Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three areas, with a vote ranging from 50.8% in Burpengary to 60% in the west. Labor polled 55.5% in Caboolture-Morayfield.

    One Nation came third, with a primary vote ranging from 10.1% in Pumicestone to 15.6% in the west.

    Voter groupON prim %LNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
    Caboolture-Morayfield14.844.515,14715.2
    Burpengary11.650.813,86913.9
    Pumicestone10.155.57,9047.9
    West15.660.04,8444.9
    Pre-poll13.555.844,56144.8
    Other votes13.153.813,22413.3

    Election results in Longman at the 2019 federal election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and One Nation.

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    78 COMMENTS

    1. I took a drive up to Bunnings at Morayfield. Passed a Australian Labor Party street stall on Morayfield Rd. Once again appeared to be unmanned. Have our candidates lost all support volunteers?

    2. @Andrew Jackson My speculation is, as part of each party’s appeal to win over the apathetic center with vague policies and lack of compelling vision and/or narrative, they both have lost punters enthused and engaged in politics. The most engaged are relied upon to be volunteers. The parties are both opting to try and win-over the person that turns up and makes up their mind on polling day for the most banal of reasons. What they are forgetting about is, it actually is important to have an animated base for your party or candidates, not only to be volunteers but to also be advocates/influences for your campaign to their low-information family and friends.

      Given this vacuum of enthusiasm, people that have an interest in politics have likely been drawn to independents or micro-parties that offer an exciting model for change or which better tailored towards specific political issues (ones that were probably put in the too-hard or too-risky basket by the majors) or simply have a trendier brand.

    3. Yesterday another Terry Young “ Delivering for the long man community” pamphlet delivered. Once again a commercial delivery service not party members
      The concerning part about this delivery was that the LNP pamphlet was en loses in an AEC 6 sided “ Your official guide to 2022 federal election” pamphlet.
      I am not accusing either the LNP or AEC of misconduct but the consequence of using commercial delivery services is that you do not have any say in what is delivered with your material.
      AEC conditions of contract should require that contractors do not deliver political material at the same time as AEC material.
      Yesterday. Terry Young Advert popped up when using Tallyroom. Commercial intrusion into the election campaign is a concern.
      It is best addressed by commercial operators self regulating and thereby avoiding the need for government regulation.

    4. I predict whoever wins in Burpengary will win the seat. 5 booths surround the area. All will be key in determining whether Fanning or Young wins. Unless Labor pulls even more substantial numbers in Morayfield and Caboolture.

      Any information down on the ground in Burpengary? Fanning needs to win there in order to have any chance unless as I said she can poll even better in already Labor area’s of the seat.

    5. Other than my own investigations ( ie far greater than ordinary voter) I have seen only the one flyer from
      Australian Labor Party and no party activity in streets for ALP. The pre polls have been manned.
      with eight candidates running only to have managed to communicate with me before I went to the pre-poll Booth. Palmers candidate has managed to get up Corflutes and signs but I have not seen a single piece of paper with her name on it. The rest of them have done nothing but a national campaign with nothing occurring in Longman as far as I know.
      I have not set eyes on Terry Young since 2019 election. It is fair however to note that I this might be my own fault. It however not alter the fact that the only communication I have had re-Terry Young is what the taxpayer has paid for until the start of the campaign.

    6. Quinlan’s Legalise canabis Corflutes appeared in Burpengary East last night. Pity that a group that want legalisation have taken do
      Little care that they do not take the trouble to see that placing signs on road signs is illegal.

    7. Yesterday’s mail box delivery
      4 * 1/2 A 4,4 colour printed brochures:
      1* ALP anti Morrison aimed at cost of living issues
      1 * ALP anti Scott Morrison Hard to see a Dr
      1 * Liberal anti Albanese Labor = economic risk
      1 * Aust Christian Lobby Anti Greens and Labor tick to One Nation, Liberal Democrat and Liberal Party

      Just now Liberal Party Robo call to both Landline and Mobile . Anti Labor party campaign on Centrelink Compulsory cash cards. Stating Labor are spreading falsehoods.
      Looks like another case of Blitzcrieg by commercial distribution companies. Looks like neither ALP nor LNP have volunteers to distribute their negative messages.

    8. Andrew, do you know if the large amount of letterbox ads is more pronounced in swing districts? I am residing in the seat of Brisbane (also a marginal Liberal seat targeted by Labor) and frequently receive several of these political ad pamphlets in the mail each day.

    9. @ Yoh An I’ve not gotten a single one which is kind of funny given Labor at least wants to appear to take my seat (Flynn) seriously. I would imagine what you suggest is the case though as it would be common sense to assume they direct their resources most to the electorates in play.

    10. I must admit that I have often wondered what the point of letterbox ads are these days. Given that I send no personal letters these days, and most of what I get in the mail is bills, I don’t actually check it all that often. And there has been a deluge of political ads in the past 10 days, all of which I have put directly in the bin without even looking at it.

      Granted, I am politically engaged, so perhaps I am not the target market, and I appreciate it may be a low-cost way to reach many people, but I do seriously wonder whether the return on investment is worthwhile. Obviously I can’t extrapolate my own views onto everyone, however I feel with all of the advertising on TV and Internet, the last thing I want to see is more of it.

      Perhaps it’s more useful as name recognition for minor party or independent candidates, but if a sitting candidate thinks that a glossy brochure is going to convince me to vote for them, they are way off the mark. Either they have done a good job, in which case they’re in a with a chance, or they haven’t, in which case no amount of paper will shift my view.

    11. Today’s Australia Post brought a letter from John Howard advising my wife and I to re- elect the Morrison Government and warning of the economic mismanagement of an Albanese Government.
      The letter is far more professional than the flyers I referred to yesterday. It sounds like the Libs are worried about Longman. The letter makes no mention of Terry Young so the same letter may have gone to every voter in the country.

    12. I suspect that it’ll be a tight race. At the last election, the LNP’s 2PP was boosted by a statewide and seat swing to One Nation and UAP. I hear that the combined major parties’ vote will fall a bit this time.

    13. I feel like this seat fits Scomo’s brand well and that could help Terry Young hold out on election night even if other seats like Brisbane and/or Ryan fall, despite both of them having safer LNP margins than Longman. But maybe I’m influenced by thoughts in earlier comments as I haven’t been down here in a very long time and have heard it’s developed quite a bit.

    14. More than half of the electors here have now voted as of COB yesterday (pre-poll & postal).

      Other divisions where more than half of the electors have voted:
      Hinkler QLD
      Flinders VIC
      Fraser VIC
      Fairfax QLD
      Bowman QLD
      Fisher QLD
      Dickson QLD
      Bonner QLD
      Indi VIC
      Eden-Monaro NSW
      Gilmore NSW
      Maranoa QLD
      Aston VIC
      Fadden QLD
      Hawke VIC

    15. The majority of early voters favour the Coalition but that does not mean that the majority of new early voters do likewise. From my experience on Bribie Island pre poll in a few elections and on polling day there is a definite tendency for the older voter to vote pre poll and for working voters to vote on Election Day. This trend was not nearly as marked at Woodford which I manned during the Council election. Farmers and their families during eeek and commuters to Brisbane on Election Day.
      What we can’t tell is is the 10% increase in pre- polling since 2019 been a similar demographic to the 40% who pre polled in 2019.

    16. The Morrison strategy of targeting the suburbs only really worked in retaining Longman and in Tasmania.

      It hasn’t helped in Dickson, Bonner, Forde or Petrie where their position has really weakened. It certainly didn’t help in Macquarie, Greenway, Parramatta, Dobell, Robertson, Corangmite. They’ve even possibly lost Menzies, Deakin and Casey when pit hing this suburban strategy.

      It might get passed over because of the focus on what happened in the inner city seats and in seats with Chinese comminities, but the other end is how the sacrifice of those seats didn’t help in the seats it was supposed to help.

    17. I think there’s a pretty clear education divide between suburbs that swing towards Labor and those that had low swing or went to LNP. That’s consistent for basically all the cities (maybe a little less evident in Perth since everything swung by so much relatively uniformly). Most middle ring established suburbs have gone hard against LNP but there are a collection of fringe/outer suburban areas which haven’t. But even if they haven’t swung much, there’s still been very little apparent gain.

    18. How did the LNP get a swing to them here? Makes absolutely 0 sense. Either Labor is still toxic with locals up here (Every other seat except Herbert) swung to Labor on the TPP in Queensland. Although late counting may change this.

      According to the ABC there is exactly a 0% swing right now with Young on 53.3 the same as last time. However as more postals come he is likely to get a swing. Why is this? Someone help me understand how Young managed to get a swing as well on primaries 0.1% up as of right now.

      Why did Young get a sophomore surge but not other Liberal MP’s around the country? Incidentally Longman and Herbert are the only 2 seats swinging to the LNP which were the 2 gains at the last election. Makes you wonder if the LNP had won Lilley and Blair last time that they would have held them this time?

    19. I doubt the LNP would have held Lilley had they won it last time, Blair would be a more likely hold IMO.

    20. Daniel, as I said, take a look at educational attainment. This seat is well below the national average. It’s a similar story in Lindsay, outer north/west Melbourne and northern Tasmania. Meanwhile suburbs with above average swung substantially towards Labor. Even if the result in most places with lower attainment is closer to status quo or small Labor swings rather than Liberal, the continued realignment from 2019 is evident.

      Terry Young is also a recipient of a sophomore boost and probably has a decent profile and background for the types of people in this electorate.

    21. I don’t know the area – but is Longman largely an anglo (or at least caucasian majority) area? If so, that’s happening everywhere, same as the US – working class whites swung behind populist conservatives like Trump, Morrison, Palmer etc.

      Whereas working class migrant communities are still holding for the left. Although the Muslim vote in Sydney is suggested to have swung somewhat to the Libs this time.

    22. To those who know this area well – am I wrong in thinking this district and region could swing to Labor in the future? I see that there is a lot of population growth particularly around Caboolture and Burpengary that could strengthen the Labor vote more.

      It is probably like the Camden and Campbelltown area of Sydney (once semi-rural in nature but now with significant urban development in places like Leppington and Oran Park, which are like Burpengary and Narangba.

    23. Especially if future redistributions are forced to slowly remove more of the rural townships and consolidate Longman into the narrow coastal band around Caboolture.

    24. I don’t know it all that well but I tend to agree with Adda. Relatively lower education levels, not that wealthy but certainly moreso than Ipswich and Logan, good turnout for UAP and ON, barely swung at the recent election. On current boundaries at least I’d expect it to trend more reliably LNP.

    25. Yeah agree with both your assessment and Adda – even the equivalent areas for Sydney (Penrith and also some parts of the south west covered by the district of Werriwa had swings against Labor)

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