Kingsford Smith – Australia 2022

Just my luck to have moved to an electorate no one is interested in… (Damn, my old one of Reid is way more fascinating). It’s a pity there’s no commentary here – as its hard for new arrivals (to any area) to discover “the lay of the land” of their new electorates now that local press no longer exists.

I have seem nothing written about Kingsford Smith in any media (and I consume it widely)

No one cares about it, and despite gentrification and skyrocketing property prices all along the coast, not even the Libs do. They didn’t even bother to nominate a candidate until well after the election was called. The only corflutes up are the incumbent’s and – (much less so) the Greens – the generic ones about climate, the ones they recycle every election. There’s been next to no volunteers outside shopping centres (Randwick anyway) on weekends, and the very few Ive seen have been Labor only. I have had two flyers (both Labor) in my Randwick mailbox, and that’s it.

Those corflutes are not on the font lawns of private homes – pretty well all are on Ausgrid’s posts, and unlike in Wentworth to my immediate north (I’m only a few blocks inside the borders), no one cares enough to complain. In terms of an election contest, this one is a dud.

Assessment: Er…I’ll go out on a limb, and say “no change!”

I may be wrong, but as far as I can work out, our incumbent MP Matt Thistlethwaite is Labor Party Royalty and was given this safe seat as a reward for services rendered. He’s been next to invisible since 2013. No one outside the electorate (and I suspect quite a few inside) knows who he is.

There might have been some Sussex St logic then, in giving Kingsford Smith rather than Fowler to KK. At least its adjacent (with some overlap) to her former State seat of Hefron (though still a long way from Scotland Island). However I’m guessing Matt is firmly entrenched, and can stay put as long as he wants.

I’ve had two flyers letter-boxed, both the same, both depicting Matt and his handsome and very blonde family under the slogan “We need more people like Matt”. I’ve no comment on his ethnicity, but the both the message and the imagery goes against current political marketing trends, where (it seems) the cult of diversity rules… Kingsford Smith is actually quite a diverse and varied electorate. It’s coastal wealth, with its hip Venice Beach, CA style co-exists with large swathes of 60s and 70s-style 3-story walk-ups providing (relatively) cheap rentals for students, health workers and recent immigrants. As well there’s still a lot of public housing. I’m sure Matt’s family are lovely people, but they wouldn’t look out of place in the Shire. Or maybe even in Katherine Deves’ turf.

I did see a photo of the Greens candidate on a flyer I picked up from the footpath. He’s very blonde too, but “Coogee cool” rather than Matt’s “Mr Shire”. He was sporting very fetching blue-framed spectacles. Unlike Albo’s, they were definitely not purchased from the 2-for $199 range at Specsavers…

Apologies to all serious Tallyroomers. I know my contribution here has been trivial… I really do wish there was something more substantial to say about this contest!

The area is definitely trending Liberal long-term but it seems to have stagnated over the past few elections. The rightward shift of the Liberal Party certainly won’t help them in a seat like this.

Agree, Long term trend here. This area is a mix of Macmanara and Gellibrand in Victoria . The coastal areas of this seat are gentrifying. The hope for Labor is that there is more High rises along Anzac Parade and near UNSW a bit like Hawthorn/Chapel street especially after the Light Rail. It is among the more affluent Labor held seats

It’s a shame Matt Thistlethwaite has such a chokehold on this seat. I fail to hear of anything he’s ever actually achieved in Parliament. Andrew Charlton or KK would be brilliant picks for this seat, a real waste unfortunately. It will be fascinating to see what happens to this seat in a redistribution.

Used to live here, I think Matt is a pretty visible member and works the seat fairly hard, alongside being an actual local. I remember Peter Garrett used to treat it like a safe seat and barely try, whilst Matt used to answer my emails and be around the place. Agree with comments that this likely will trend more marginal over the election cycles, especially if areas around Mascot get moved out of the seat

The high-rises around Mascot are surprisingly very strongly Labor leaning though it could simply be that mainly non-citizens live there hence don’t have any say in elections with the voters in Mascot being the traditional industrial blue collar worker.

Greens have slept on this seat in the past and should be getting a much higher vote in the area around UNSW than they are. They seem to do consistently well on Randwick council and have produced several mayors and deputy mayors, but that hasn’t translated at all to other tiers of government.

If the seat is gentrifying and densifying as other commenters say, that seems to benefit Greens. If the Greens pick up a few seats this time, this seat could be in play for 2025, especially if Thistlethwaite is a hack (his history suggests so, but also doesn’t seem to be a particularly bad local MP) and the Labor government is disappointing to progressives.

Greens will benefit from the donkey vote and a small ballot paper with only the 2 majors and 2 fairly polarizing right wing parties in a fairly low activity seat. A decent swing up for grabs.

I’d say Matt is a popular member because he is genuinely involved in the community – Surf life saving etc. He is also quite accessible and visible, not only during elections. I have received at least three pamphlets from Labor.

As for the Liberals, they’ve really dropped the ball this time around. They need to get a strong candidate and build their profile over multiple elections. I have seen two corflutes in Eastlakes/Mascot area and received no material.

As for the Greens they put very minimal effort in building up their profile beyond Coogee-Randwick-Clovelly. The eastern booths may get a reasonable swing but they won’t pick up any extras in Botany.

John, Anton, budgie

Full disclosure : Greens member and long-term resident of this seat for the last 12+ years – personal opinions only

Matt Thistlewaite is a good, active and engaged local member with roots in the community and his is in a position to increase his 2pp numbers.

I don’t think this area is gentrifying as much or as quickly as everyone says it is, aside from some pockets in South Coogee and Little Bay.  There is not a lot of movement out of the area, and there is no large scale movement in (the K2K project has not changed the makeup of the electorate). The potential redevelopment of Long Bay or the public Housing around soldiers settlement may change this trajectory, but it feels 10+ years away.  Large parts of the electorate have not changed in 20+ years. Many residents will argue this is a good thing.

FYI John – The Greens were also #1 on the ballot paper in fed19 so there will be no measurement of donkey vote this time around :). I think you will find the Council and Fed greens results are actually very similar, its just that with the strong greens vote in the north can deliver 4 councillors in the Randwick LGA, but that may only translate to a ~12% primary vote across all of Kingsford Smith.

James, Zep, happy to amend my view of Matt, especially in view of that generous assessment from an opposing party member. I’m new to electorate, and still feeling my way around. It’s quite ritzy where I live up in its northern reaches, but I do like the area’s diversity and air of unpretentious “genuineness.” I’ll be one of those newcomers who hopes that never changes (unlikely, I know).

Uninspired by this blah campaign, my partner said she’d “have to vote Greens” this time, totally flooring me, as she’s been rusted-on Red for as long as I’ve known her. I went and picked up some HTVs from Randwick Town Hall yesterday just to make sure her vote would eventually get to Matt. I come from the inner west, where the Grn/Lab relationship is poisonous, so especially in State and council elections, you can never be sure.

This was around lunchtime, and all three majors were handing out, as well as Allegra’s people (we’re close to the border). There were several Lib corflutes for Grace as well, so I finally got to put a face to the name. She’s pretty, but that’s all I know about her – clearly they’re not trying very hard… And, this would NEVER happen in the inner west, but Matt’s guy asked if I wanted their HTV or a Greens one, as he had both…

On the HTVs, only the Greens note the party of the other candidates, something I wish Labor and the Libs would do too to be totally transparent. And the avoid voting mistakes – many people are totally confused by preferences and the talk of “deals”. Grace’s prefs won’t be counted, but she has Matt as no 2 as well. UAP were nowhere in sight (no garish signage either), and phew, nothing for PHON, thankfully.

So yep, Matt’s 2PP will probably go up. Don’t know what PHON or UAP are doing with prefs, an don’t want to google “how to vote One Nation in my electorate” – in case I’m forever digitally tarnished.