Isaacs – Australia 2022

ALP 6.4%

Incumbent MP
Mark Dreyfus, since 2007.

Geography
Outer south-eastern Melbourne. Isaacs covers suburbs along the coast of Port Phillip Bay on the south-eastern fringe of Melbourne. It covers southern parts of Kingston and Greater Dandenong council areas.

Redistribution
No change.

History

Isaacs was created at a redistribution before the 1969 federal election. The seat was long a marginal seat, but has become safer for the ALP over the last decade.

The seat was first won in 1969 by the Liberal Party’s David Hamer. Hamer held the seat until 1974, when he lost to the ALP’s Gareth Clayton, but Hamer won back the seat in 1975.

Hamer retired in 1977, and was succeeded by Liberal candidate William Burns. Burns failed to win re-election in 1980, when Isaacs was won by the ALP’s David Charles.

Charles held the seat for a decade, retiring in 1990. The Liberal Party’s Rod Atkinson won back the seat in 1990.

Atkinson was re-elected in 1993, but a redistribution before the 1996 election changed Isaacs’ margin from a 3% Liberal margin to a 3.9% Labor margin, and Atkinson lost to the ALP’s Greg Wilton.

Wilton was re-elected in 1998. His marriage broke down in 2000, and he faced strong media attack in 2000 after being found by police in a situation that some interpreted as an attempted murder-suicide. This ended with Wilton committing suicide in June 2000. He remains the only member of federal Parliament to ever die by suicide.

The ALP’s Ann Corcoran easily won re-election at the ensuing by-election, with the Liberal Party not standing a candidate. Corcoran’s margin was cut to around 1-2% at the 2001 and 2004 elections, and retired in 2007.

The seat was won in 2007 by the ALP’s candidate, prominent lawyer Mark Dreyfus. Dreyfus was has been re-elected four times.

Candidates

  • Boris Sokiransky (One Nation)
  • Mark Dreyfus (Labor)
  • Sarah O’Donnell (Liberal Democrats)
  • Robbie Beaton (Liberal)
  • Alex Breskin (Greens)
  • Alix Livingstone (Animal Justice)
  • Scott McCamish (United Australia)
  • Assessment
    Isaacs is a safe Labor seat.

    2019 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Mark Dreyfus Labor 43,36444.8+3.8
    Jeremy Hearn Liberal 34,08935.2-7.5
    Kim Samiotis Greens 10,82211.2+0.5
    Tony SealsUnited Australia Party3,8133.9+3.9
    Bronwyn CurrieAnimal Justice3,6073.7-0.6
    Ash PuvimanasingheRise Up Australia1,1421.2+0.5
    Informal4,1804.1+0.7

    2019 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Mark Dreyfus Labor 54,64556.4+3.5
    Jeremy Hearn Liberal 42,19243.6-3.5

    Booth breakdown

    Polling places in Isaacs have been divided into three areas, east, north-west and south.

    Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 59.5% in the north-west to 62.1% in the east.

    The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 7.8% in the east to 13.9% in the north-west.

    Voter groupGRN prim %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
    North-West13.959.520,69421.4
    South11.661.117,63218.2
    East7.862.18,2938.6
    Pre-poll10.251.836,04237.2
    Other votes11.154.714,17614.6

    Election results in Isaacs at the 2019 federal election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.

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    62 COMMENTS

    1. I would laugh like hell if One National preferenced Australian Labor Party In Longman and that made the difference between Albanese and Morrison being PM. I don’t think there is much to chose between them but suspect that most PHON voters are disenchanted Liberals certainly she is just a Liberal with a big mouth.

    2. @PJ

      I’m not sure what happens next. It “can” result in jail time, as far as I know, but that may require the AEC wanting to go down that road. Dunno.

      What’s happening with Rod Culleton in WA? His crime – nominating when he was clearly disqualified, as he seems to think his bankruptcy goes away if he doesn’t think about it – seems to be more likely to be investigated.

      I don’t think they actually can kick anyone off the ballot at this point, as postals have already started going out.

    3. @Mick

      Beaumaris will probably be on the ZD wagon this time (even moreso than the rest of Goldstein), so we’ll see about that…

    4. I can see a future redistribution where Isaacs move northwards to take in all of Kingston LGA, while losing its Dandenong end east of the Eastlink. Especially if Hotham is abolished, as some have suggested.

    5. @MQ, This seat is winnable even if it does not include Beaumaris. See my comments earlier in the thread. Note on the current boundries it would have been won by the Libs in 2004. Also look at the corresponding state electorates at competitive state elections such as 2010 and 2014 and how these areas are very close and sometimes even more Liberal than the state-wide vote. The Coastal suburbs of Kingston LGA are becoming more affluent similar to Georges River area in the federal electorate of Banks Also note Issacs is in the top 1/3 of seats for SEIFA ranking- https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-03/fact-check-barnaby-joyce-poorest-electorates/11437932. Its really on the Greater Dandenong area that is solidly Labor. If a future redistribution removes Dandenong and includes all of Kingston LGA it will likely remain Labor leaning as the part of Kingston LGA north of Dingley Bypass is solidly working class and industrial similar to Monash LGA south of the Monash freeway.

    6. So…. AFP are investigating Beaton. Interesting to see if they charge him, question may be whether they deem it was deliberate.

      Surely Lobo is cooked in Lilley though.

    7. I don’t know how deep the AFP investigates but a shallow dig of social media shows Beaton saying he lives in aspendale, not Camberwell.

      Ben may be able to say, I assume you put your address on a piece of paper when you nominate to run? Surely that’s a smoking gun there? It’s not like he can forget where he lives.

      In any case, Beaton has got zero election commitments I can see for Isaacs. Looks like Libs focussing on neighbouring seats of Goldstein, Chisholm and (interestingly) Dunkley.

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