Isaacs – Australia 2022

ALP 6.4%

Incumbent MP
Mark Dreyfus, since 2007.

Geography
Outer south-eastern Melbourne. Isaacs covers suburbs along the coast of Port Phillip Bay on the south-eastern fringe of Melbourne. It covers southern parts of Kingston and Greater Dandenong council areas.

Redistribution
No change.

History

Isaacs was created at a redistribution before the 1969 federal election. The seat was long a marginal seat, but has become safer for the ALP over the last decade.

The seat was first won in 1969 by the Liberal Party’s David Hamer. Hamer held the seat until 1974, when he lost to the ALP’s Gareth Clayton, but Hamer won back the seat in 1975.

Hamer retired in 1977, and was succeeded by Liberal candidate William Burns. Burns failed to win re-election in 1980, when Isaacs was won by the ALP’s David Charles.

Charles held the seat for a decade, retiring in 1990. The Liberal Party’s Rod Atkinson won back the seat in 1990.

Atkinson was re-elected in 1993, but a redistribution before the 1996 election changed Isaacs’ margin from a 3% Liberal margin to a 3.9% Labor margin, and Atkinson lost to the ALP’s Greg Wilton.

Wilton was re-elected in 1998. His marriage broke down in 2000, and he faced strong media attack in 2000 after being found by police in a situation that some interpreted as an attempted murder-suicide. This ended with Wilton committing suicide in June 2000. He remains the only member of federal Parliament to ever die by suicide.

The ALP’s Ann Corcoran easily won re-election at the ensuing by-election, with the Liberal Party not standing a candidate. Corcoran’s margin was cut to around 1-2% at the 2001 and 2004 elections, and retired in 2007.

The seat was won in 2007 by the ALP’s candidate, prominent lawyer Mark Dreyfus. Dreyfus was has been re-elected four times.

Candidates

  • Boris Sokiransky (One Nation)
  • Mark Dreyfus (Labor)
  • Sarah O’Donnell (Liberal Democrats)
  • Robbie Beaton (Liberal)
  • Alex Breskin (Greens)
  • Alix Livingstone (Animal Justice)
  • Scott McCamish (United Australia)
  • Assessment
    Isaacs is a safe Labor seat.

    2019 result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing
    Mark Dreyfus Labor 43,364 44.8 +3.8
    Jeremy Hearn Liberal 34,089 35.2 -7.5
    Kim Samiotis Greens 10,822 11.2 +0.5
    Tony Seals United Australia Party 3,813 3.9 +3.9
    Bronwyn Currie Animal Justice 3,607 3.7 -0.6
    Ash Puvimanasinghe Rise Up Australia 1,142 1.2 +0.5
    Informal 4,180 4.1 +0.7

    2019 two-party-preferred result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing
    Mark Dreyfus Labor 54,645 56.4 +3.5
    Jeremy Hearn Liberal 42,192 43.6 -3.5

    Booth breakdown

    Polling places in Isaacs have been divided into three areas, east, north-west and south.

    Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 59.5% in the north-west to 62.1% in the east.

    The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 7.8% in the east to 13.9% in the north-west.

    Voter group GRN prim % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
    North-West 13.9 59.5 20,694 21.4
    South 11.6 61.1 17,632 18.2
    East 7.8 62.1 8,293 8.6
    Pre-poll 10.2 51.8 36,042 37.2
    Other votes 11.1 54.7 14,176 14.6

    Election results in Isaacs at the 2019 federal election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.

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    75 COMMENTS

    1. I would laugh like hell if One National preferenced Australian Labor Party In Longman and that made the difference between Albanese and Morrison being PM. I don’t think there is much to chose between them but suspect that most PHON voters are disenchanted Liberals certainly she is just a Liberal with a big mouth.

    2. @PJ

      I’m not sure what happens next. It “can” result in jail time, as far as I know, but that may require the AEC wanting to go down that road. Dunno.

      What’s happening with Rod Culleton in WA? His crime – nominating when he was clearly disqualified, as he seems to think his bankruptcy goes away if he doesn’t think about it – seems to be more likely to be investigated.

      I don’t think they actually can kick anyone off the ballot at this point, as postals have already started going out.

    3. @Mick

      Beaumaris will probably be on the ZD wagon this time (even moreso than the rest of Goldstein), so we’ll see about that…

    4. I can see a future redistribution where Isaacs move northwards to take in all of Kingston LGA, while losing its Dandenong end east of the Eastlink. Especially if Hotham is abolished, as some have suggested.

    5. @MQ, This seat is winnable even if it does not include Beaumaris. See my comments earlier in the thread. Note on the current boundries it would have been won by the Libs in 2004. Also look at the corresponding state electorates at competitive state elections such as 2010 and 2014 and how these areas are very close and sometimes even more Liberal than the state-wide vote. The Coastal suburbs of Kingston LGA are becoming more affluent similar to Georges River area in the federal electorate of Banks Also note Issacs is in the top 1/3 of seats for SEIFA ranking- https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-03/fact-check-barnaby-joyce-poorest-electorates/11437932. Its really on the Greater Dandenong area that is solidly Labor. If a future redistribution removes Dandenong and includes all of Kingston LGA it will likely remain Labor leaning as the part of Kingston LGA north of Dingley Bypass is solidly working class and industrial similar to Monash LGA south of the Monash freeway.

    6. So…. AFP are investigating Beaton. Interesting to see if they charge him, question may be whether they deem it was deliberate.

      Surely Lobo is cooked in Lilley though.

    7. I don’t know how deep the AFP investigates but a shallow dig of social media shows Beaton saying he lives in aspendale, not Camberwell.

      Ben may be able to say, I assume you put your address on a piece of paper when you nominate to run? Surely that’s a smoking gun there? It’s not like he can forget where he lives.

      In any case, Beaton has got zero election commitments I can see for Isaacs. Looks like Libs focussing on neighbouring seats of Goldstein, Chisholm and (interestingly) Dunkley.

    8. This seat is interesting as it had the identical result for the Republic (adjusted to current boundaries) to the Voice referendum 50.6% Yes, which is interesting considering the Voice result was much worse both nationally and statewide. This area has gentrified a lot in the last 24 years but the Bayside suburbs have not really become more ethnically diverse in this time period in stark contrast the rest of Greater Melbourne. The Seaford booths in neighboring Dunkely have also shown a strong Yes vote. It also shows the increase in education levels along the Sandbelt. All the Bayside suburbs from Mentone to Frankston votes Yes it was only Dingley Village and Paterson Lakes more inland which voted No (These two suburbs have an older age demographic)/

    9. Sorry Nimalan, I live in this side of Melbourne and you are plane wrong …in short this is not Melbourne’s answer to the Shire…… a more nuanced reflection would have also considered the southwards growth of the Eruv since the late 1990’s.

      Because of the Eruv, you can’t just look at the booth results (which typically overreports the ALP vote) you have to look at the postal votes as well….and the northern parts of Isaacs crosses into the southern section of Eruv.

    10. I wonder if Dandenong South and Keysborough would finally be moved out of Isaac’s given it lacks the community interest with Frankston Line Suburbs? Keysborough is more associated with Springvale with a large SE Asian community although with higher like Endeavour Hills whereas Dandenong South is working class with a large Albanian and Afghan Community so it more associated with Dandenong.

    11. @marh doubtful I’ve given isaccs the rest of Kingston from Hotham and push the areas south of Patterson’s River to dunkley. There simply isn’t enough voters in Kingston lga to ,are up a division

    12. @Marh only 125 people live in Dandenong South, hard to really characterise the suburb demographically on those numbers.

    13. “Dandenong South” tends to be used to refer to Dandenong south of the rail line, even though technically Dandenong South is an industrial suburb south and east of this area.

    14. If a seat like Higgins was abolished, perhaps Isaacs could move up the coast to take in more of Cheltenham, Black Rock, Beaumaris, etc, and then lose all of its ‘inland’ component.

      That would probably be the ideal arrangement for Isaacs. Not sure how likely that is, though.

    15. @mark mulcair i doubt higgins will be abolished. ideally the highest under quota should be but given that is aston and thats perfectly situated in the knox lga i oubt that will happen

    16. Another suggestion would be to abolish Casey with it being replaced with Deakin, La Tribe, Aston and perhaps even McEwen as Antony Green suggested

    17. @John, I wouldn’t support abolishing Jagajajga for a similar reason why I wouldn’t support abolishing Aston because the boundaries are already the best for community of interest

    18. Well it’s probably gonna happen one way or the other regardless if it’s called jagjagjaga or not. In reality I’ve abolished Menzies but transferred the name

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