Hume – Australia 2022

LIB 13.0%

Incumbent MP
Angus Taylor, since 2013.

Geography
Southern NSW and outer south-western Sydney. Hume is a seat of two parts – the seat covers most of the Camden and Wollondilly areas on the fringe of south-western Sydney, including Camden, Picton, Douglas Park, Appin, Narellan, Mount Annan and Warragamba.

Hume also covers Goulburn, Crookwell and Boorowa in rural southern NSW. Hume covers parts of the southern highlands of NSW, connecting the two main population centres in the seat, but most of the towns in the highlands have been excised into the neighbouring seat of Whitlam.

History
Hume is an original federation electorate, and originally covered the NSW border region, including the towns of Albury, Gundagai and Cootamundra.

The seat was first won by William Lyne in 1901. Lyne was a Protectionist and had previously been Premier of New South Wales, and a leading opponent of federation.

Lyne had been originally offered the role of Australia’s first Prime Minister by Governor-General Lord Hopetoun, but failed to form a ministry and instead became a minister in Edmund Barton’s first cabinet.

Lyne served in Edmund Barton and Alfred Deakin’s Protectionist cabinets from 1901 to 1904 and 1905 to 1908. Lyne refused to join with Alfred Deakin when the Protectionist and Free Trade parties merged to form the Commonwealth Liberal Party in 1909, and served as an independent until 1913.

Lyne was defeated in 1913 by Commonwealth Liberal Party candidate Robert Patten, who held the seat until his retirement in 1917, when the seat was won by Franc Falkiner (LIB), who had previously held the seat of Riverina from 1913 to 1914. Falkiner abandoned Hume in 1919 in an attempt to move to the Senate.

Parker Moloney (ALP) won Hume in 1919. Moloney had previously held the neighbouring seat of Indi in Victoria from 1910 to 1913 and 1914 to 1917.

Moloney held the seat until 1931, when he was defeated by Thomas Collins of the Country Party. This began a period of Hume being a marginal seat between the ALP and the Country Party until 1974.

Collins was defeated by Arthur Fuller (ALP) in 1943, after serving as a minister in Robert Menzies’ first government.

Fuller was defeated in 1949 by Charles Anderson of the Country Party. Fuller won back the seat in 1951, and Anderson won it back again in 1955. Fuller defeated Anderson for the last time in 1961.

Fuller was defeated by John Pettiitt of the Country Party in 1963. Pettitt held the seat until he was defeated by the ALP’s Frank Olley at the 1972 election. Olley was defeated by Stephen Lusher of the Country Party in 1974. This was the last time the seat was held by the ALP, and the margin for future National and Liberal candidates increased to a safer range.

At the 1984 election, a redistribution saw the Liberal member for Farrer and former Fraser government minister Wal Fife challenge Lusher. Lusher came third and his preferences elected Fife.

Fife held the seat until his retirement at the 1993 election, when a redistribution saw the National member for Gilmore, John Sharp, move to Hume. Sharp served as a minister in the first term of the Howard government before his career was claimed by the travel rorts affair, and he retired in 1998.

The 1998 election saw the seat go to Alby Schultz, previously the Liberal member for the state seat of Burrinjuck since 1988. Schultz came first on primary votes, with the National candidate reduced to fourth place behind One Nation.

The 2000 redistribution saw Hume move into the Southern Highlands, and saw Macarthur move into more marginal territory in south-western Sydney. Finance Minister John Fahey, former NSW premier and member for Macarthur, planned to run for preselection in Hume, into which his home base of the Southern Highlands had been redistributed. Fahey, however, decided to retire due to ill-health, freeing up Schultz to run for re-election.

Schultz held Hume for five terms, and retired in 2013. Hume was won in 2013 by Angus Taylor. Taylor was re-elected in 2016 and 2019.

Candidates

  • Greg Baines (Labor)
  • Garry Dollin (United Australia)
  • Rebecca Thompson (One Nation)
  • Sheneli Dona (Independent)
  • Ross Seller (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
  • Karen Stewart (Greens)
  • Angus Taylor (Liberal)
  • Joaquim De Lima (Liberal Democrats)
  • Penny Ackery (Independent)
  • Assessment
    Hume is a safe Liberal seat.

    2019 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Angus Taylor Liberal 54,58953.3-0.5
    Aoife Champion Labor 27,22326.6-5.3
    Huw KingstonIndependent6,0685.9+5.9
    David Powell Greens 5,2245.1-1.5
    Lynda AbdoUnited Australia Party4,9394.8+4.8
    Tanya HargravesConservative National Party2,4932.4+2.4
    Ian NebauerChristian Democratic Party1,9061.9-1.9
    Informal7,0806.5+1.2

    2019 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Angus Taylor Liberal 64,52763.0+2.8
    Aoife Champion Labor 37,91537.0-2.8

    Booth breakdown

    Booths have been divided into six parts. Polling places in the town of Goulburn and in the Camden council area have been grouped together. Other polling places in the Goulburn Mulwaree council area and in the southern parts of the southern highlands have been grouped as “South”, while those to the west of Goulburn have been grouped as “West”.

    The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all six areas, ranging from 55.6% in Goulburn to 70.7% in the north-east.

    Voter groupLIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
    Camden62.821,77021.3
    East60.316,57016.2
    North-East70.77,7117.5
    Goulburn55.67,6107.4
    West67.54,4964.4
    South56.43,5953.5
    Pre-poll64.529,19528.5
    Other votes63.411,49511.2

    Election results in Hume at the 2019 federal election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.

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    21 COMMENTS

    1. Unless a reverse of 1996 or 1975/1977 happens (meaning Labor wins a massive majority) this will remain in Liberal hands. And don’t even think about suggesting this seat becoming marginal because Angus Taylor is a liberal hero and is popular here. He can hold the seat as long as he wants it unless he is defeated in a preselection.

    2. The growth around Camden will lead to redistribution troubles for Taylor but 2021/2 he should retain albeit with probably a lose of a percent or two.

    3. Camden and Goulburn should not be in the same seat…….Camden at the federal level is like Menai…….Angus despite his best efforts wil retain the seat

    4. Hume had a “Voices of…” candidate in 2019 – Huw Kingston- who gained about 6% of the vote. Hume has the silliest boundaries of any seat in the nation (except for Franklin) and the big divide was reflected in the vote. In those parts of the Southern Highlands that are not in Whitlam – Bundanoon, Wingello – the ind vote was >20%. In the areas around Goulburn, 6% but around Camden about 3% or even less. As much as Angus Taylor will be a lightning rod of discontent – and much more deserving of it than Katie Allen or Trent Zimmerman – the demographic and geographic divides in Hume will just be too much for a “Voices of ..” candidate to bridge or get a decent vote. If Bowral and Mittagong were in Hume they might have a chance of getting a vote in the high teens.

    5. @Redistributed Huw was not a “Voices” candidate.
      Just a regular Independent
      Penny has a serious chance to flip the seat this time

    6. I live in the Camden Council area, although in the Macarthur electorate. I pass through the areas of Camden that are covered by Hume daily.

      The Liberal Party are heavily advertising Angus Taylor through the area with corflutes around Narellan Town Centre (a very large one in that area), the intersection of Sheathers Lane and Cawdor Road, the old Milk Factory in Camden and outside the Camden Fruit Barn in Elderslie. I am certain there are others that I haven’t seen yet.

      Penny Ackery, by comparison, has a small corflute on the window of the chicken shop in Argyle St, Camden, another corflute outside a residential home on Macarthur Road, Elderslie, and a corflute outside the abovementioned Camden Fruit Barn.

      Camden and the surrounding suburbs are very much to Angus Taylor’s strength, and I do not detect a great deal of dissatisfaction with his performance in the area. More to the point, I think this is an area where you can say that he is admired and liked from my personal interactions with others in the electorate.

      The other parts of Hume may well be a different matter, and given the size of the electorate, it would not be surprising if Camden might be the outlier on election night for Mr Taylor, or the deciding factor in a tight result.

    7. Where is the Labor candidate? Slight oversight to not have Labor’s candidate even listed. No wonder Angus seems so comfortable.

    8. Noticed more corflutes for Angus Taylor today on the Northern Road, just past the new BP, north-bound, at Bringelly. Mixture of large and small corflutes. Nothing for Penny Ackery, or any other candidate when driving along that section today.

    9. Hume watch: Noticed a corflute on The Northern Road for the United Australia Party candidate, next to an Angus Taylor corflute that I hadn’t seen located before, just outside the northern carpark entrance to Narellan Town Centre.

      One Nation have two corflutes that I know of for Rebecca Thompson (This is Mark Latham’s home electorate). One corflute outside the Narellan Sports Hub, and another corflute on Camden Valley Way next to Camden Golf Club.

      About a week or so ago (before the election was called), I went to United Cinemas Narellan and saw an advertisement prior to the commencement of my movie from Angus Taylor spruiking his passion and commitment for Camden. There were only two people in the cinema at that time, myself and another person who was more interested in talking to somebody on their phone. Clear to me that Taylor and the Liberal Party are taking Penny Ackery very seriously, even if I haven’t noticed any great visibility for Penny around Camden.

    10. Liberals & Ackery each spending big in Hume on Facebook ads.

      Any local Hume residents know what is going on here? Is Taylor in serious danger against Ackery?

    11. @Tam Tam – No he is not. Ackery likely to double the independent vote from last time (15%-20%), but still come third behind Labor. Hume is not in the same ‘Teal’ category as Kooyong or Wentworth. Taylor has plenty of money and not a lot to do on the national stage, so has stepped up the corflute distribution and digital advertising.

      If Ackery and Labor can get Taylor’s FP down to 45%, that would be an amazing achievement, but Taylor still get’s home on 2PP in the high 50’s.

    12. I agree with the previous poster. Taylor does not appear to be in danger in Hume. He has, however, taken the threat of Penny Ackery very seriously.

      His advertising campaign in Hume has been prolific, and it has had to be. Constant vandalism of his corflutes in and around the Camden area has meant that his team have been putting up old corflutes from 2019, 2016 and, in recent days, 2013. One must commend the campaign for their recycling. The worst of the vandalism has been around the old milk factory, although there were a couple of the larger ‘illegal’ corflutes which were defaced with the word ‘ICAC’ on them.

      If there was a place where such vandalism is not rewarded, it is Camden. A very conservative area that genuinely likes Taylor. Given that the Labor, UAP and Ackery corflutes were all untouched, I expect the vote in Camden to remain untouched unlike areas in Goulburn, Wollondilly and Wingecarribee.

      As a frequent patron of United Cinemas Narellan, I have also seen advertisements for Angus Taylor in the movie previews. They are slick and professional.

      I’ve been struck down with COVID since Wednesday, so won’t be able to offer more observations on Hume when I see them. However, the scenes on Tuesday at the Camden Civic Centre were quite crowded and all parties allocating resources, unlike in my seat of Macarthur where at Oran Park Library, there were no Liberal volunteers at all.

      Taylor to win by probably 57-43 2PP at the worst.

    13. Agree DLH.

      In 2019 the Liberal 2PP across the three Hume areas were;

      Camden – 66%
      Goulburn – 60%
      Picton – 61%

      I predict Camden and Picton won’t swing much if at all. It will be fascinating to see what the swing in Goulburn will be, with both Ackery and Baines (Labor) being “Goulburn” locals and it is Taylor’s weakest area, plus this is where the Vote Angus Out group is loudest. Could it be over 10%?

      The bigger question is what does Taylor do if Labor wins Government?? Stick around and go for OL or jump ship and hence trigger by-election. He doesn’t seem to be a guy who wants to stick around and wait another 6 years before getting back into Government.

    14. Argyle Street and DLH, the next NSW redistribution due after this election might completely alter Hume and return it back to being a Goulburn based seat losing Camden and the fringe parts of Sydney to a redrawn Macarthur electorate.

      The large number of Western Sydney seats in the Bankstown-Liverpool corridor being under quota will mean Fowler will be pushed south absorbing more of Campbelltown council. This will free up room for Macarthur to gain Camden and then Hume returns to being a purely rural district.

    15. Yoh.. .next redistribution is any ones guess..Camden and Goulburn do not belong in the same seat. NOR do Bowral and Shellharbour.

    16. Agree with you Mick that the current Hume is kind of an odd mixed or hybrid urban-rural division as Camden has barely any connection with Goulburn and the Southern Highlands. It is probably like the old Pearce district in WA or the former division of Wakefield in SA as both also attempted to combine urban and rural areas together.

    17. I had given passing thought to Angus Taylor’s prospects following this election, and I’m glad this has been mentioned.

      Sportsbet has Taylor at $18.00 to be the next Liberal Party leader. It is quite feasible that this might happen, especially if Frydenberg and Dutton lose their seats. Even though there has been some scandal surrounding Taylor over the years, he seems to be very popular with the Liberal base, and Liberal MP’s in electorates all over the country have been welcoming him over the campaign, independent of the Prime Minister, which suggests some residual goodwill for Taylor. If Dutton becomes Opposition Leader or Prime Minister down the track, I could see Taylor being a Deputy Liberal leader.

      As for Hume, is there a possibility the seat gets redistributed more into Sydney rather than further down south? I am no expert on redistribution, nor would pretend to be.

    18. DLH, I initially thought that moving Hume towards Sydney would be better, but looking at all NSW district enrolment numbers show that all Western Sydney seats stretching from Liverpool (Fowler) to Parramatta are >5% under quota. This also affects the North Shore and Eastern suburbs.

      In fact, the only over quota seats are on the outer suburbs and fringes of Sydney, and also in some regional hotspots like North Coast, Hunter and Illawarra south of Wollongong. This suggests the way to resolve much of the enrolment imbalance is for the inner and middle ring suburban districts like Watson, McMahon and Fowler to expand outwards which will in turn expel the fringe parts of Sydney from Hume.

      Unless population statistics show NSW losing a seat in reapportionment, which will result in Hume moving more towards Sydney to fill in the gap caused by a metropolitan seat being abolished.

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