Hinkler – Australia 2022

LNP 14.5%

Incumbent MP
Keith Pitt, since 2013.

Geography
Central Queensland. Hinkler covers the city of Bundaberg and rural areas south of the city.

History

Hinkler was created in 1984. It has been held by the National Party for most of the last quarter-century. The seat was originally considered notionally Labor when it was created in 1984.

Hinkler was won in 1984 by the Nationals’ Bryan Conquest, who only held the seat until 1987, when Labor’s Brian Courtice won Hinkler. Paul Neville won the seat in 1993 and held the seat for the next twenty years.

Neville’s margin was cut to less than 2% in 2007, but a swing of 8.9% in 2010 strengthened his hold on the seat.

Neville retired in 2013, and the LNP’s Keith Pitt held onto the seat despite a small 1.3% swing back to Labor. Pitt was re-elected in 2016 and 2019.

Candidates

  • Keith Pitt (Liberal National)
  • Kristie Nash (United Australia)
  • Zak Menhennett (One Nation)
  • Jason Scanes (Labor)
  • Andrew McLean (Greens)
  • Jack Dempsey (Independent)
  • Assessment
    Hinkler is a safe LNP seat.

    2019 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Keith Pitt Liberal National 42,37446.0+2.2
    Richard Pascoe Labor 21,11022.9-3.8
    Damian HuxhamOne Nation13,62514.8-4.4
    Joseph EllulUnited Australia Party4,0294.4+4.4
    Anne Jackson Greens 3,4223.7-0.2
    Moe TuragaIndependent2,5832.8+2.8
    Aaron ErskineConservative National Party1,4711.6+1.6
    Amy ByrnesAnimal Justice1,3911.5+1.5
    David NormanIndependent1,3271.4+1.4
    Adrian WoneIndependent7350.8+0.8
    Informal7,8107.8+3.2

    2019 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Keith Pitt Liberal National 59,38464.5+6.1
    Richard Pascoe Labor 32,68335.5-6.1

    Booth breakdown

    Booths have been divided into four areas. Hinkler covers parts of Bundaberg and Fraser Coast council areas. Those in the Fraser Coast council area, including Hervey Bay, have been grouped together. Those in Bundaberg Region have been split between those in the Bundaberg urban area, those rural booths near Bundaberg as Woongarra, and those to the south of Bundaberg as Isis (the name of the former council).

    More than half of the total vote was cast through pre-poll voting, so the geographic breakdown only covers a minority of votes.

    The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 56.8% in Bundaberg to 67.3% in Isis.

    The One Nation primary vote ranged from 12.2% in Woongarra to 17.6% on the Fraser Coast.

    Voter groupON prim %LNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
    Fraser Coast17.662.714,16415.4
    Bundaberg13.156.811,13412.1
    Woongarra12.265.14,9355.4
    Isis15.767.31,9052.1
    Pre-poll15.066.249,21253.5
    Other votes13.166.410,71711.6

    Election results in Hinkler at the 2019 federal election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and One Nation.

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    62 COMMENTS

    1. Peter Knopke I very much doubt if Liberals concerns result in them directing their volunteers to abuse the Australian Labor Party candidates mother. I think Libs are heading for defeat but I very much doubt that their concerns are being communicated Beyond a very small campaign committee.

    2. I’m sure they haven’t been told to harass Labor candidates.

      BUT all but the most fervent true believers would know they’re not in a good place right now. I’ve seen others describe the mood of LNP poll volunteers as pretty glum. So maybe we’ll see more tempers fraying.

      Which seat was it that the LNP candidate allegedly assaulted an ALP volunteer today?

    3. Andrew … I was not suggesting that the LNP directed the volunteer to do anything but hand out the HTV. I’m saying that when elections get closer or even are perceived to be close, some people become emotional and abusive. I’ve worked on booths on a few occasions over the years and have noticed that everyone is friendly and calm (except maybe some One Nation supporters) if the election is in a safe seat. On two occasions when I’ve worked in a closely contested seat there was a marked difference in attitude of some of the participants.

    4. More than 50% of electors have already voted in Hinkler (including pre-poll and postage votes).

      What this means for the results is anyone’s guess.

    5. SEQ … I’d expect that seats like Hinkler with a large proportion of older voters eg. the number of people on Age Pensions is about 20% which is double the State average, would be more likely to vote early. Given that both State seats (Bundaberg & Hervey Bay) switched to Labor in the State Election with ‘protection from Covid’ as a major reason, it is feasible to assume that voters are voting early because they don’t want to mingle with a lot of people on election Day. My ‘anyone’s guess’ is that there is a lot of dissatisfaction with Morrison over the handling of Covid and they have been waiting their chance to vent their anger. I will not be surprised if Labor or so-called Independent Dempsey win the seat.

    6. Peter, not sure what your take is on this but I feel that ‘protection from covid’ is not really that relevant now that all state borders have re-opened and the omicron strain is sort of endemic with 90%+ people vaccinated in most places.

    7. Yoh An .. Older people particularly those with underlying health issues are still very wary and don’t want to put themselves in a higher risk situation. Might point out that this is despite the fact that the Wide Bay area (inc. Hinkler Electorate) is one of the most highly vaccinated parts of Australia.

    8. @Daniel 25.5% of Hinkler is aged 65 and over so this may explain the lower income with a more retired population. The only other thing i know about this area is Bundaberg produces sugar cane. Maybe LNP policies are beneficial to sugar cane farmers and/or the sugar cane industry so they have support from the community.

    9. Daniel. Hinkler has a large proportion of retirees and pensioners. This reflects their low median income.

    10. I can’t really speak for Bundaberg and why it’s abandoned Labor at both the state and federal level in recent decades (I am aware Labor won the state seat by like 0.04%, that is abysmal considering the statewide TPP), even if I have my theories, but I am familiar with Hervey Bay, and despite the description of the electorate on this page, it’s a significant regional city as well, and on its way to surpass Bundaberg’s population within a decade or so.

      The retiree vote is the standout factor here, but aside from that, the Australian-born population and where the few immigrants come from is another aspect. Internal immigration and foreign immigration largely comes from elderly and/or retired WASPs. Hervey Bay has always catered to these groups, but in its rapid growth over the past few decades, countless aged care facilities and retiree estates have popped up and continue to pop up and attract these people to stay permanently. For the most part they drive the city’s population growth, whereas elsewhere you generally expect younger job seekers or international migrants to fill that role. Tourism plays a big role as well, given the proximity of Fraser Island and (apparently) very good whale-watching grounds.

      tl;dr, if you’re familiar with Yeppoon (might not be helpful to out of state people I’m afraid), think of Hervey Bay as the same, but much further progressed along that path.

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