Hasluck – Australia 2022

LIB 5.9%

Incumbent MP
Ken Wyatt, since 2010.

Geography
Hasluck covers eastern parts of the Perth metropolitan area, stretching from Ellenbrook in the north, through suburbs including Midland, Guildford, Gooseberry Hill and Kalamunda, down to Lesmurdie in the south. The seat also stretches east along the Mundaring Shire parts of the Perth Hills to Wooroloo. The seat covers the entire Mundaring council area and parts of Gosnells, Kalamunda and Swan council areas.

Redistribution
Hasluck shifted north, losing Forrestfield to Swan and Beckenham and Kenwick to Burt, and gaining Bennett Springs and Whiteman from Cowan and Ellenbrook, Middle Swan, Dayton, Baskerville, Brigadoon, Upper Swan, The Vines and surrounding areas from Pearce. These changes slightly increased the Liberal margin from 5.2% to 5.9%.

History
Hasluck was created for the 2001 election. It had a notional ALP margin of 2.6% and was won for Labor by Sharryn Jackson, with a small notional swing to the Liberals. At the next three elections, the sitting MP was defeated at every election.

A 3.6% swing to the Liberals in 2004 saw Jackson defeated by Stuart Henry. Jackson returned to contest the seat again in 2007 and regained the seat from Henry on a 3.1% swing.

In 2010, the Liberal candidate Ken Wyatt won the seat off Jackson with a 1.4% swing. Wyatt has been re-elected three times.

Candidates

  • Jeanene Williams (Independent)
  • Brendan Sturcke (Greens)
  • Will Scott (United Australia)
  • Pauline Clark (Western Australia Party)
  • Ian Monck (One Nation)
  • Ken Wyatt (Liberal)
  • Marijanna Smith (Federation)
  • Tania Lawrence (Labor)
  • Steven McCreanor (Liberal Democrats)
  • Assessment
    Hasluck could be in play if Labor bounces back in Western Australia – the seat’s margin closely matched the state result, so a more even statewide result could be reflected in a close result here.

    2019 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
    Ken Wyatt Liberal 36,73543.6-1.344.0
    James Martin Labor 25,79230.6-4.630.3
    Lee-Anne Miles Greens 9,65111.5-1.210.8
    Tim OrrOne Nation4,4455.3+5.36.1
    Fiona White-HartigShooters, Fishers and Farmers2,4362.9+2.92.5
    Mike DaleUnited Australia Party1,9202.3+2.32.2
    Brady John WilliamsAustralian Christians1,6792.0-1.51.9
    Stephen PhelanWestern Australia Party1,5421.8+1.81.6
    Others0.6
    Informal4,8995.5+1.5

    2019 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
    Ken Wyatt Liberal 46,63755.4+3.355.9
    James Martin Labor 37,56344.6-3.344.1

    Booth breakdown

    Booths have been divided into four parts. The western end of the electorate contains most of the population and this area has been split into central, north-west and south-west. Those booths in the Mundaring Hills have been grouped as “east”.

    The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three out of four areas, ranging from 53.8% in the north-west to 62.4% in the south-west. Labor polled 53.9% in the centre.

    The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 8.5% in the north-west to 15.9% in the east.

    Voter groupGRN prim %LIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
    Central11.649.420,40522.4
    North-West8.553.813,78915.1
    East15.956.89,86610.8
    South-West11.962.49,61510.5
    Pre-poll8.458.022,22424.4
    Other votes11.058.915,24316.7

    Election results in Hasluck at the 2019 federal election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.

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    20 COMMENTS

    1. As I said in Pearce, Good chance of this holding for Wyatt.

      I don’t think he is that unpopular as a minister unlike his colleagues such as Dutton,Hunt and Porter are. This seat could flip but I personally think Labor is more likely to pick up a Canning or a Tangney/Moore than this due to the sitting members war-chest

      That being said however if the polls are correct the swing is on and Wyatt narrowly would lose but I expect them to throw everything at holding this instead of defending seats like Swan and Pearce which are seen as the 2 most vulnerable seats in WA and maybe even nationwide.

    2. The thing with Hasluck is that it’s vastly different to 2019. The seat now contains all of Ellenbrook, which has swung insanely over the last two state elections, losing the more electorally stable foothills to Swan and the conservative south to Burt. I agree the Libs should be able to win this if they try hard enough, and given Wyatt’s appeal, unless the swing is too big, I don’t see him losing.

    3. I don’t understand Wyatt’s appeal. There are always rumours about of him retiring. Last election was he was going to stay because of Turnbull, then Turnbull got rolled and he still stayed on. If he retires, then Husluck changes to Labor.

    4. > losing the more electorally stable foothills to Swan and the conservative south to Burt.

      The area transferred from Hasluck to Burt – Beckenham, Kenwick & Maddington – is Labor voting and largely explains why the notional Liberal margin has increased slightly.

    5. James I have always been committed to continuing in Hasluck and I am not retiring and as for the rumours there is a person or persons who are polling households and their opening statement is Ken Wyatt is retiring and they then go on to asking a series of questions. I have rung the number that came upon a telephone and there is no response. I intend to contest my seat. Ken

    6. Ryan, the suburbs of Beckenham, Kenwick and Maddington which refer as the Conservative south is actually very voting Labor voting area. Maddington has often had Labor’s highest primary in Hasluck

    7. Hey Ken
      Here is a job for you. See if you can get the PM to learn something from his political “Betters” like JFK, Hawke, & Beatty : How to embrace, & transcend failure (s)!!. Rather than contort himself in every possible way to avoid accepting them (FAILURES) , & DEALING WITH THEM OPENLY.
      iF you don’t succeed in this endeavour, then perhaps that “retirement” you maintain that you don’t desire, might manifest (for you personally) very soon indeed.
      Happy to help cheers WD

      ps i intend to elaborate in great detail on this subject on the Cook (PMs seat) thread

    8. No commentary on this seat despite it likely being a key marginal this election, anyone know anything about the campaign here? Currently see this as a pure tossup as Ken Wyatt’s popularity should help him hold off some of the swing to the ALP that will be seen across WA, but the question is will it be enough?

    9. Yes James, Wyatt receives $426,000 plus and he is asking for a rise? He will be last on my ballot.

    10. I was in Hasluck (Midland) about a week ago and there was nothing really to suggest that there was a campaign going on here. The Perth Hills section of the seat is reliably Liberal however the Midland and Ellenbrook areas are Labor leaning. There has been a lot of housing developments in the area south of Ellenbrook in the last 3 years, and I think that area in particular is going to swing heavily to Labor. It should be close but I’m leaning towards Hasluck being a Labor gain.

    11. I live in a conservative area of Hasluck. My daughter is an NDIS participant. She was part of the Hills trial group from 2013. It looked like a promising future. The Liberal party have overseen its degradation. It now a shambles. My advise is don’t vote for the Liberals, or any party that will preference them.
      Mr Wyatt the Main NDIS office is in Midland even if it is not your portfolio you should be on top of it.

    12. It will be interesting if Labor would have won here on 2001 or 1998 figures on these boundaries which were in fact better in WA than 2007 for Labor. Agree Ellenbrook is a mortgage belt area where interest rates and cost of living could have a major impact.

    13. The polling was generally wrong in this seat. The narrative in the media was Ken Wyatt would hold on. There was published polling shortly before the election that had Wyatt in Hasluck leading by 55-45. Even sources in the Liberals were talking up Hasluck and suggested Labor would gain 1 seat in WA at best. I even read whispers on the blogs the Labor campaign wasn’t going well in Hasluck.

      Wyatt comments on politicians should get paid more wouldn’t have helped. But pollsters and political commentators underestimated the strength of the Labor vote on a stateside swing in WA was a big factor in toppling Wyatt.

    14. The seat polls were way too favorable towards the Libs this election. Different from 2019 where they were too favorable to Labor. I guess that’s why the results seem so shocking.

    15. I see results in places like here, Chisholm, Corangamite and other seats as further evidence that political commentary during campaigns about which seats are at risk just muddies the picture about what really is going on rather than informing. That’s the entire purpose of the campaigns leaking such information, after all – to feed a narrative that is beneficial to their side. Disconnecting from the whole thing and focussing on numbers is much better for someone looking to predict.

      I commented elsewhere (not this site) that if Swan and Pearce went down, I thought it was very unlikely Hasluck would stay Liberal, simply due to the demographic similarity and margins (especially Swan and Pearce).

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