Grayndler – Australia 2022

ALP 16.3% vs GRN

Incumbent MP
Anthony Albanese, since 1996.

Geography
Inner West of Sydney. Grayndler covers most of the Inner West council area and a small part of the Canterbury-Bankstown council area. Main suburbs include Annandale, Balmain, Rozelle, Leichhardt, Petersham, Lilyfield, Sydenham, Hurlstone Park, Summer Hill and Haberfield, and parts of Ashfield, Dulwich Hill, Marrickville, Newtown.

History
Grayndler was created in the 1949 redistribution, and has always been held by the ALP. The seat was first won by Fred Daly, who had previously held the nearby seat of Martin since 1943. Daly was a highly popular MP and served as a minister in the Whitlam government before his retirement in 1975.

The seat was won by Tony Whitlam at the election following his father’s dismissal as Prime Minister in 1975, but he was replaced by Frank Stewart at the 1977 election following the abolition of Stewart’s former seat of Lang. Stewart had previously served as a minister in the Whitlam government, and had been in Parliament since 1953. Stewart died in 1979, and the following by-election was won by the Assistant General Secretary of the NSW Labor Party, Leo McLeay.

McLeay held the seat until the 1993 election, serving as Speaker from 1989 until 1993. At the 1993 election he was forced to move to the neighbouring seat of Watson in order to free up Grayndler for federal minister Jeannette McHugh, whose seat of Phillip had been abolished.

McLeay held Watson until 2004, and McHugh retired at the 1996 election, when the seat was won by another Assistant General Secretary of the NSW Labor Party, Anthony Albanese, after Albanese had arranged McHugh’s move to Grayndler in 1993.

Anthony Albanese has been re-elected eight times. He served as a senior minister in the last Labor government, including a brief term as Deputy Prime Minister in 2013, and then served as a senior shadow minister until he become Labor leader after the 2019 election.

Candidates

  • David Smith (United Australia)
  • Anthony Albanese (Labor)
  • Ben Zhang (Liberal)
  • James Haggerty (Fusion)
  • Sarina Kilham (Independent)
  • Paul Henselin (One Nation)
  • Michael Dello-Iacovo (Animal Justice)
  • Rachael Jacobs (Greens)
  • Assessment
    On paper, Grayndler is one of Labor’s safest seats. The Greens do a lot better in this area at the state and local level, and this seat would be much more competitive if the Greens could convert those votes at a federal level. It’s unlikely that will happen as long as Albanese holds the seat, but there’s potential for this seat to change dramatically in his absence.

    2019 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Anthony Albanese Labor 48,72850.9+4.8
    Jim Casey Greens 21,60722.6+0.3
    Derek Henderson Liberal 20,84621.8-1.6
    Majella MorelloScience Party2,6132.7+1.4
    Paris King-OrsbornUnited Australia Party1,1551.2+1.2
    Gui Dong CaoChristian Democratic Party8650.9-0.3
    Informal4,2584.3-2.5

    2019 two-candidate-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Anthony Albanese Labor 63,52966.3+0.5
    Jim Casey Greens 32,28533.7-0.5

    2019 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Anthony Albanese Labor 70,73973.8+1.5
    Derek Henderson Liberal 25,07526.2-1.5

    Booth breakdown

    Booths have been divided into five parts based on the former local government areas. Polling places in the former Leichhardt council area have been split into “Leichhardt” and “Balmain”. Those booths in the former Ashfield council area have been grouped as “Ashfield”, and those in the former Marrickville council area have been split into “Marrickville” and “Petersham”.

    The ALP won sizeable majorities of the two-candidate-preferred vote (against the Greens) in all five areas, ranging from 61.6% in Petersham to 69.6% in Ashfield.

    The Greens primary vote ranged from 18.2% in Balmain to 29.6% in Petersham.

    The Liberal Party came third, with a primary vote ranging from 13.8% in Petersham and Marrickville to 29.4% in Balmain. The Greens outpolled the Liberal Party in Marrickville, Leichhardt and Petersham, while the Liberal Party outpolled the Greens in Balmain and Ashfield.

    Voter groupGRN primLIB primALP 2CPTotal votes% of votes
    Marrickville24.114.667.213,62113.9
    Leichhardt22.321.566.112,92313.2
    Petersham29.613.861.611,95112.2
    Balmain18.229.468.510,21110.4
    Ashfield19.324.769.610,12710.3
    Pre-poll20.923.567.927,45728.0
    Other votes24.823.961.411,65611.9

    Election results in Grayndler at the 2019 federal election
    Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Labor vs Greens), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Greens and the Liberal Party.

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    56 COMMENTS

    1. @Chaisa Wills and Copper both have Labor in the mid-70s vs Libs on TPP. The Vic state seat of Northcote has 82-18 TPP. There are probably some state seats in WA probably have similarly high margins after last election.

    2. Actually, now that I take a look at primary votes, Cooper and Wills won’t beat out Grayndler’s 2PP this election.

      WA’s got Rockingham with 37.7% but I don’t know what would be higher from past Federal elections. O’Connor and Maranoa were both a shade under 26% in 1996.

    3. It’s hard to see the Greens winning in Metro Sydney as long as Tanya Plibersek and Anthony Albanese are MPs. They’re from Labor Left and they would appeal to Green voters. The electoral border runs through Newtown (arguably the most “Green” suburb in Metro Sydney) and that makes it harder.

    4. My comment:
      – It seems despite being an inner-city electorate, The Greens did not perform that well here possibly due to Albanese for obvious reasons
      – It seems many of the Green voters voted early
      – The areas around the railway have the weakest Lib vote and the strongest Libs vote is in the northern half since many are old money voters. Strangely Balmain seems to have a strong Lib vote and a weaker Green vote despite its industrial past but maybe again could be old money voters moving in (like Carrum in Melbourne)

    5. It’s interesting how Kingsford-Smith and Grayndler have grandiose, waterfront properties and harbourside or seaside suburbs with median house prices well over $2 million and yet be safe Labor. In most parts, the Labor primary vote exceeds 45% or even 50%. Ironically, the Liberal vote in both seats has been trending downwards since 2013. There was a drop in the Liberal vote in 2019 as was in many inner-city electorates.

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