Gilmore – Australia 2022

ALP 2.6%

Incumbent MP
Fiona Phillips, since 2019.

Geography
Gilmore covers parts of the south coast and the southern Illawarra. This includes the entirety of the City of Shoalhaven and Kiama LGA, and northern parts of the Eurobodalla council area. The southernmost significant settlement is Moruya.

History

Gilmore was created in 1984 when the House of Representatives was expanded in 1984. The seat was first held by the National Party’s John Sharp until 1993, when he moved to the nearby seat of Hume. Sharp served in the first Howard cabinet until he resigned over the travel rorts affair in 1997.

The seat was won by the ALP’s Peter Knott in 1993, and he was defeated by Joanna Gash of the Liberal Party in 1996. The  seat was considered marginal after the 1996 and 1998 elections, but a large swing in 2001 saw Gash hold the seat by a much larger margin. This was cut back to a margin of about 4% in 2007.

Gilmore’s boundaries were redrawn before the 2010 election, making the seat a notional Labor seat. Gash gained a 5.7% swing.

Gash announced her impending retirement in 2012, and was elected as the directly-elected Mayor of Shoalhaven.

In 2013, Gash was succeeded by Liberal candidate Ann Sudmalis, who won despite a 2.7% swing to Labor. Sudmalis suffered a further 3% swing in 2016, but narrowly won a second term.

Sudmalis retired in 2019, and a contentious Liberal preselection resulted in the imposition of a candidate, and the leading preselection candidate running as an independent. A former state minister also ran as a Nationals candidate. Labor candidate Fiona Phillips defeated this crowded conservative field.

Candidates

Assessment
Gilmore is a very marginal seat that has usually gone with the Liberal Party, but Phillips should benefit from her new incumbency.

2019 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Fiona Phillips Labor 38,97236.2-3.0
Warren Mundine Liberal 31,42729.2-16.1
Katrina Hodgkinson Nationals 13,46212.5+12.5
Carmel Mary Mccallum Greens 10,74010.0-0.5
Grant SchultzIndependent7,5857.0+7.0
Milton LeslightUnited Australia Party3,6383.4+3.4
Serah KolukulapallyChristian Democratic Party1,8531.7-3.3
Informal5,9705.3+1.1

2019 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Fiona Phillips Labor 56,65252.6+3.3
Warren Mundine Liberal 51,02547.4-3.3

Booth breakdown

Booths in Gilmore have been divided into five areas. Polling places in Eurobodalla and Kiama council areas have been grouped along council boundaries. Those polling places in Shoalhaven have been divided in three. From north to south these are: Nowra, Jervis Bay and Ulladulla.

The ALP won the election-day vote in all five areas, ranging from 53.5% of the two-party-preferred vote in Kiama to 57.8% in Jervis Bay. Labor won the pre-poll vote more narrowly and lost the other votes (including postal votes) narrowly.

Voter groupGRN primNAT primALP 2PPTotal votes% of votes
Nowra10.516.455.416,70915.5
Batemans Bay10.810.255.09,9269.2
Jervis Bay9.812.157.89,0808.4
Kiama14.710.453.57,4056.9
Ulladulla10.211.554.76,8446.4
Pre-poll8.612.750.347,78744.4
Other votes11.310.149.79,9269.2

Election results in Gilmore at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party, the Nationals and the Greens.

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85 COMMENTS

  1. I’m surprised Amanda Findley isn’t running for Greens. Incumbent Mayors are eligible for federal elections (McBain was the incumbent Bega Valley mayor).

    Carmel McCallum is a competent candidate, who performed quite well in a Sky News forum here in 2019. But with Findley’s profile, and having recently been reelected, she could guarantee that Liberals have no chance.

    I’m still tipping a Labor retain based on local government results and Labor’s strength on the coast in the Eden Monaro and Bega byelections.

  2. Ahh John, but Mr Shoebridge running for the Senate will create a casual vacancy in the NSW Upper House, won’t it? A shame and disservice to the Shoalhaven people who elected her if she was to fill that spot, but a potential outcome.

  3. It’s not a potential outcome. The Greens have already chosen Shoebridge’s successor, and it’s Sue Higginson. As far as I can tell Amanda Findley hasn’t run for a state upper house seat since 2009. You’re just making stuff up.

  4. A few weeks ago I would have given Gilmore to Andrew Constance no questions asked. But Labor is at a very high tide right now in NSW. No forgone conclusion but think Constance may struggle to overcome an underlying groundswell going against the Coalition. Thoughts?

  5. yeah, tighter now…but the ‘economic uncertainty’ debate which will now dominate up to 21st will get him over the line…would think constance is milking his post-fires anti-ScoMo chest-poking like crazy on the ground, and keeping the PM away…

  6. Constance will lose. his state seat did not overlap any more than 30% of Gilmore and his colleague state mp for Kiama suspended from.the state parliament by his own side.

  7. Given the remaining votes are postals all favouring the Liberals, Constance might get in and we might get a decent moderate MP. Shame Frydenberg was defeated though, even as a Liberal I feel Dutton would be bad.

  8. I knew the Libs would win at least one seat from Labor but didn’t expect it to be this one.

    Anyone know how/why Andrew Constance bucked the national trend and won?

  9. Not called yet but looks very likely to win. Constance was a reasonably popular challenger. Although if he does win the redistribution may push this into Bega Valley which would be the end of his career.

  10. Analysing the results further there has apparently been an issue with the preferences in one booth – this will be exceptionally close.

  11. Votante, not only is Andrew Constance a moderate but he was quite active in his local community whilst serving as a state MP, particularly helping out with the bushfire recovery effort in 2020.

  12. This is still extremely close on the count and could go either way. Though now Kevin Bonham points out an error on the booth counting in Gerringong which would mean Constance is behind if corrected.

    https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/05/2022-house-of-reps-summary-page-and.html

    “There is no way Constance is getting nearly 80% of preferences in a substantial booth with a decent sized Greens vote. It seems the numbers (247 and 69) have been credited to Gilmore and Phillips the wrong way round and in fact, Constance’s lead is not 360 votes; it’s 4.

    [Edit: And Constance’s lead has dropped another 54, so he is effectively now behind.]”

  13. Yes that is obvious- -or int might just be that greens preferences have been wrongly allocated.

    How can this happen!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Either way it makes the seat much more possible for Labor

  14. My latest projection has Labor winning by 158 votes, depends on the remaining postals, declaration pre-polls and absent votes.

  15. Gilmore Labor 2PP in LGA’s:
    Kiama: 52.93% (+1.36%)
    Shoalhaven: 50.69% (-2.67%)
    Eurobodalla: 47.47% (-4.49%)

    Interesting to see the small swing to Labor in Kiama and the big swing to the Liberals in northern Eurobodalla…

  16. Possible that their star candidate does not win…. Gilmore overlapped less than 30% of his previous state seat

  17. From the recent update it would seem Fiona has this in the bag. Absentees and Prepolls have heavily favoured her and there are more of these to be processed than all the missing oistals, even assuming they all are received by Friday

  18. Despite being ultra marginal, Constance would have been a credible leadership contender and could have played a similar role to Turnbull while Abbott was opposition leader (Q&A leather jacket). Labor must be over the moon they retained here, and now have a floor majority.

    A seat to watch in 2025. Much harder sell for Findley and likely the top of the LNP target list, but not sure Dutton is the man to win here.

  19. Will be glad to see Constance gone. A disgustingly arrogant man and possibly the worst Transport Minister in NSW history.

  20. The ABC has just called Gilmore for Labor. The margin is still super narrow. Albo and Fiona Phillips have accepted the win.

  21. The issue for the Libs is that this is a seat where an incumbent can entrench themselves like Joanna Gash. When she retired in 2013 it had a swing to Labor in a year which Labor did poorly in NSW. This seat was only previously won in 1993 which was a high water mark for Labor in NSW. If Andrew Constance had not won i expect Fiona Phillips would have got a swing to her. I wonder if Andrew Constance will try and take back Bega at the next state election like Warren Entsch did in 2010.

  22. Batemans Bay is Andrew Constance’s home base. Should it end up in E-M he may run there or decide to give politics away.

  23. Why the hell hasn’t Constance conceded in Gilmore? Everyone knows Labor has won the seat, the ABC has called the seat, The Liberals lost. The ALP and LNP candidates who lost tough races last month had the humility and respect for democracy to concede when the race was over. So should Andrew Constance.

  24. Constance really waited until 2 hours before the seat was scheduled to be finalized by the AEC to request a recount.

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