Fraser – Australia 2022

ALP 18.1%

Incumbent MP
Daniel Mulino, since 2019. Previously member of the Victorian Legislative Council for Eastern Victoria, 2014-2018.

Geography
Western Melbourne. Fraser covers most of the Brimbank council area, as well as a small part of the Maribyrnong council area. The seat covers the suburbs of Ardeer, Braybrook, Calder Park, Kealba, Keilor, Kings Park, St Albans, Sunshine, Sydenham, Taylors Lakes and Tottenham.

Redistribution
Fraser was pulled closer to the city, taking in Maidstone, Seddon and Footscray from Gellibrand and Maribyrnong, and losing Keilor, Keilor Downs, Keilor North, Calder Park, Sydenham and Delahey to Gorton. These changes increased the Labor margin from 14.2% to 18.1%.

History
Fraser was first contested at the 2019 election, covering areas previously included in Calwell and Maribyrnong. The seat and its predecessors were very safe Labor seats.

Labor candidate Daniel Mulino won Fraser in 2019. Mulino had previously served as a member of the Victorian upper house for one term.

Candidates

  • David Wood (Liberal)
  • Daniel Mulino (Labor)
  • Anthony Cursio (Liberal Democrats)
  • Bella Mitchell-Sears (Greens)
  • Keith Raymond (United Australia)
  • Sabine de Pyle (One Nation)
  • Catherine Robertson (Victorian Socialists)
  • Assessment
    Fraser is a very safe Labor seat.

    2019 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
    Daniel Mulino Labor 46,70950.5-8.150.8
    Peter Bain Liberal 23,92925.9+0.523.9
    Rebecca Scorgie Greens 7,6458.3-1.513.9
    Vinh Van ChauUnited Australia Party7,3147.9+7.96.5
    Van TranIndependent5,3065.7+4.33.9
    Tony DobranGreat Australian Party1,6561.8+1.81.0
    Informal6,0466.1+0.5

    2019 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
    Daniel Mulino Labor 59,40364.2-5.668.1
    Peter Bain Liberal 33,15635.8+5.631.9

    Booth breakdown

    Polling places in Fraser have been divided into three areas: north-west, south-east and south-west.

    Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 69% in the north-west to 76.6% in the south-east.

    The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 7.9% in the north-west to 26.2% in the south-east.

    Voter groupGRN prim %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
    South-East26.276.614,87415.9
    South-West13.870.59,1669.8
    North-West7.969.08,2958.9
    Pre-poll11.066.447,10450.3
    Other votes13.962.314,28715.2

    Election results in Fraser at the 2019 federal election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.

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    12 COMMENTS

    1. The West of the seat in Brimbank Council is one of the most deprived areas of Melbourne along with the suburbs around Dandenong/Springvale so i don’t see the Green vote growing there for now. However, the east is becoming trendy and gentrifying. Ideally, all of Yarraville should be in this seat. the Greens should at least come second as there really is no areas except for the suburb of Maribyrnong (more middle class) which have a significant Liberal vote.

    2. If we take the “South-East” area of Fraser and “East” area of Gellibrand (as designated in the booth breakdowns), that’s 34,146 electors with a Green primary vote of 22.3%.

    3. The Greens have benefited by the latest Redistribution by having Footscary and surrounds to be in Fraser rather than Gellibrand although they would have wanted all of Yarraville to be in one seat. Gellibrand has areas with a decent Liberal vote.

    4. Dark horse for a Green gain if they manage to secure Liberal preferences and actually campaign in the seat. Probably the only seat with this property that the Greens have never targeted.

      Mulino seems like the beneficiary of a factional deal and probably doesn’t have what it takes to win a competitive election, but he’s in an area where he probably won’t have to worry about that.

    5. Hard to see the Greens winning this seat on these boundaries. But they’d probably have a good shot at a hypothetical inner-west seat that mostly focuses on Footscray, Yarraville and Williamstown (rather than them being split between Fraser and Gellibrand).

      The Greens are arguably pretty unlucky with the way boundaries are set in Melbourne: inner-city progressive areas tend to be paired with more conservative suburban areas. They could pretty easily win three seats (and potentially even five or six) with more favourable boundaries: the division of Melbourne + the aforementioned inner west seat + an inner-north seat composed of the southern halves of Cooper and Wills (and they’re also at competitive in Macnamara, Higgins, and Kooyong).

    6. The issue is that if it goes back into Williamstown or the Bay then there is fair Liberal vote same with Altona. Gentrification along the Bay has increased the Liberal vote so it could be more of 3 corned contest.

    7. If there are no Vietnamese candidates, who will they vote for? I’d say Labor, Mulino is quietly confident, he doesn’t even need to try. I think the UAP will do well, the Libs may gain some, the Greens will stay the same, and Pauline Hanson will also see an increase in numbers. But with the Lib Dems in the mix, they might get the angry Labor voters. Interesting times in Fraser.

    8. A solid result for the Greens in the parts that make up the state electorate of Footscray, which should definitely be a Greens target for November.

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