Fisher – Australia 2022

LNP 12.7%

Incumbent MP
Andrew Wallace, since 2016.

Geography
Sunshine Coast of Queensland. Fisher covers southern parts of the Sunshine Coast. The seat is centred on the town of Caloundra and includes the coast as far north as Alexandra Headland and inland towns including Landsborough and Maleny.

History
Fisher was created in the 1949 expansion of the House of Representatives, and has been won by Coalition parties at all but two federal elections, and was held by members of the same family for its first thirty-five years of existence.

The seat was won by Charles Adermann in 1949, after previously having served as Member for Maranoa since 1943. Adermann held the seat for over twenty years, serving as a minister in the Coalition government from 1958 to 1967. Adermann retired in 1972 and was succeeded by his son Evan Adermann.

Adermann held the seat from 1972 until the 1984 election, when he moved to the new seat of Fairfax. Adermann served as a minister in the Fraser government from 1975 until 1980, and served in Fairfax until his retirement in 1990.

Adermann was succeeded by Peter Slipper (NAT) in 1984, and was defeated by the ALP’s Michael Lavarch in 1987.

The Liberal Party first challenged in Fisher at the 1972 election when the senior Adermann retired, and started to regularly contest the seat in 1983. At the 1990 election, Lavarch was re-elected while the National Party was pushed into third place.

At the 1993 election, Fisher’s boundaries shifted and became notionally Liberal, and Lavarch shifted to the nearby seat of Dickson, where he won a special election a month after the general election due to the death of another candidate. Lavarch became Attorney-General and was defeated at the 1996 election.

In Fisher, the Liberal Party stood Slipper, the former National Party member for the seat, and won. Slipper’s margin exploded to over 70% in 1996 and stayed above 10% for the entirety of the Howard government, with Slipper serving as a Parliamentary Secretary from 1998 to 2004.

Slipper’s hold on Fisher was weakened in 2007 with a 7.9% swing. Slipper gained a 0.6% swing in 2010.

Slipper survived a push to replace him with Mal Brough prior to the 2010 election, but his relationship with the Coalition had begun to break down. After the 2010 election he was elected as Deputy Speaker with the support of the ALP, defeating the Coalition-endorsed candidate.

In November 2011, the sitting ALP Speaker resigned from the position, and Peter Slipper accepted the nomination and was elected as Speaker. Slipper was threatened with expulsion from the LNP, and resigned soon after being elected Speaker.

Slipper temporarily stepped aside as Speaker in May 2012, and resigned as Speaker in November 2012, following allegations of misuse of parliamentary entitlements.

At the 2013 election, the LNP’s Mal Brough was elected comfortably. Brough was a former minister in the Howard government and member for neighbouring seat of Longman from 1996 until his shock loss in 2007. Slipper ran for re-election as an independent, but came a distant seventh with 1.55% of the vote.

Brough returned to the ministry in September 2015, but was forced to step down in late December over his involvement in the Ashby affair. Brough retired in 2016, and was succeeded by LNP candidate Andrew Wallace. Wallace was re-elected in 2019.

Candidates

  • Sam Schriever (One Nation)
  • Judene Andrews (Labor)
  • Andrew Wallace (Liberal National)
  • Vickie Breckenridge (Animal Justice)
  • Renay Wells (Greens)
  • Tony Moore (United Australia)
  • Assessment
    Fisher is a safe LNP seat.

    2019 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Andrew Wallace Liberal National 49,56750.0+1.8
    Daniel Parsell Labor 22,01122.2-2.3
    Tracy Burton Greens 12,28912.4+0.1
    Christopher PatersonOne Nation8,5968.7+8.2
    Trevor David GrayUnited Australia Party3,4293.5+3.5
    Mike JessopConservative National Party1,5921.6+1.6
    Paul MonaghanLove Australia or Leave1,5641.6+1.6
    Informal4,9924.8-2.0

    2019 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Andrew Wallace Liberal National 62,10062.7+3.6
    Daniel Parsell Labor 36,94837.3-3.6

    Booth breakdown

    Booths have been divided into three parts. Most polling places lie near the coast. The largest cluster lie around the town of Caloundra. The remaining booths on the coast have been grouped as ‘Coast’, and the inland booths have also been grouped together.

    The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 56.8% inland to 60.5% on the coast.

    The Greens vote ranged from 12.7% in Caloundra to 16.5% inland.

    Voter groupGRN prim %LNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
    Inland16.556.816,69316.9
    Caloundra12.759.615,79515.9
    Coast15.160.57,0707.1
    Pre-poll10.665.445,43645.9
    Other votes11.865.714,05414.2

    Election results in Fisher at the 2019 federal election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.

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    17 COMMENTS

    1. Not this chestnut again.

      Surely the last few decades have shown that state and federal results have very little connection to each other. SE Queensland, western Sydney, and eastern Melbourne all happily voted Lib federally and Labor state for years and years.

    2. Mark I never said this would be competitive I’m just curious as to what the results would have been on the state results just out of curiosity.

    3. People who sometimes or usually vote for the ALP at state level but the Coalition at Commonwealth level, outside NSW, would have some of the highest potential to be driven away from voting for the Coalition at Commonwealth level by the Prime Minister for NSW. So state level ALP results may not be as far from Commonwealth results as usual in Queensland.

    4. I agree with Tom – I think you may be right. There will be a big campaign of Morrison is the PM for NSW. I think the rest of the country has been forgotten.

    5. The Greens could do well here. According to the 2019 detailed result the Greens won the Conondale booth. which is strange why they do so well? does anybody know why the Greens polled 31% in that area. Astonishing in my view.

    6. Labor have preselected environmental sustainability manager Judene Andrews as their candidate. Greens apparently have a strategy at campaigning hard at urban safe Liberal seats to bump up their senate vote. It might be a strategy Labor needs to be weary after winning one senate seat at the last campaign.

      Labor held this seat once in Bob Hawke’s hey day in 1987. Michael Lavarch held it for two terms but then abandoned it for the seat of Dickson after a unfavourable redistribution. I know there were insiders who also thought Labor was a good chance in Fisher when Kevin Rudd had a massive lead in the polls late in 2009. Rudd failed go through with the double disillusion which cost Labor chances of ever picking up the seat.

      I don’t know much about the member Andrew Wallace, but apparently he is in the running to be the next speaker which will be decided on Tuesday.

      LNP retain.

    7. Daniel
      Conondale, a small regional town, also seems to contain an ecovillage called Crystal Waters, with about 200 residents.

    8. Is this the first time in Australian history 2 speakers came from the same seat? I also suspect the people of Fisher are disappointed that yet again their MP only votes to break ties.

    9. Daniel, the seats of Casey and Wakefield (now abolished and renamed Spence) also had 2 speakers each. Casey had Tony Smith and Bob Halverson (both Liberals) whilst Wakefield had Neil Andrew and Frederick Holder.

    10. Actually also forgot another seat – Scullin. This one is particularly notable for not only having 2 speakers but both were from the same family (Harry Jenkins Sr and Jr), the only father and son combo who were both Speakers during Labor governments.

    11. Morrison is a NSWophile. And hasn’t NSW done brilliantly with its Covid Response. Expect Morrison not to be the great Coalition Warrior in Queensland as he was in 2019. People are starting to see through his rhetoric.

    12. Much of what was the original Fisher is now in Dickson and Longman such has been the population sprawl north of Brisbane. The Sunshine Coast is Liberal territory although Queensland Labor did pick up the Sunshine Coast seats of Nicklin and Caloundra at the last State Election but Fisher will be retained by the Coalition, but is likely to have lower margin this time as Franking credits won’t scare the older voters this time around.

    13. In explaining why Conondale went Green in 2019, it’s obvious that parts of the SC hinterland are mini Nimbins – lots of hippies, alternative lifestylers, and dope smokers. On the subject of dope, the local member Andrew Wallace would have to be the most uninspiring dope ever to occupy the Speaker’s chair. Anyone who makes Peter Slipper look good, just has to be called out. He’ll be re-elected, but as John T notes above, some good progress was made last state election that just may translate to the federal sphere. With Albo’s conservative agenda, the retirees just may acknowledge that they can live well under an ALP govt and ‘Scott the Ripper’ and his party represent a Covid threat to their cosseted lifestyles.

    14. After the fair but firm Tony Smith. Andrew Wallace is a disaster as the Speaker. He has allowed question time to become a rabble. He does nothing but allow Government ministers ,particularly Peter Dutton, to engage in disorderly conduct, ranting, interjecting and avoiding giving answers and this stirs up the opposition to then interject more. However Fisher will most probably remain a government seat, but Andrew Wallace will thankfully no longer be the speaker.

    15. I meant to say a coalition seat as I believe in my opinion that Andrew Wallace will be an opposition backbencher after this election.

    16. John T
      Agreed. Wallace is spectacularly underwhelming. Even the job of speaker is beyond him.
      My favourite moment with Tony Smith was the moment he nearly punted the PM !. Now that would have been truly historic !. Those 5 seconds or so were an eternity !. But Smith was just too decent a man. I’d have done it. The humiliation of Morrison would have been everlasting.

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