Curtin – Australia 2022

LIB 13.9%

Incumbent MP
Celia Hammond, since 2019.

Geography
Western Perth.  Curtin covers those suburbs between the northern shore of the Swan River and the Indian Ocean, stretching east to Subiaco and Leederville. Curtin stretches as far north as Doubleview and Joondanna. Key suburbs include Churchlands, Leederville, Wembley, Jolimont, Subiaco, Kings Park, Nedlands, Claremont, Swanbourne, Mount Claremont, Karrakatta, Floreat, Cottesloe, Peppermint Grove and Mosman Park.

Redistribution
Curtin expanded north, taking in Karrinyup and part of Trigg and Gwelup from Stirling. This reduced the Liberal margin from 14.3% to 13.9%.

History

Curtin was created as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives at the 1949 election. It has been won by the Liberal Party at all but one election, having been won by an independent former Liberal MP in 1996.

It was first won in 1949 by Paul Hasluck. He was appointed as Minister for Territories in 1951, and served in ministerial roles for the next eighteen years, eventually becoming Minister for External Affairs. In 1969 he left Parliament when appointed as Governor-General, a role he served in until 1974.

The 1969 Curtin by-election was won by Victor Garland. He joined the ministry under Billy McMahon in 1971, serving until the 1972 election. He then served as a minister in the Fraser government from 1975 to 1976 and again from 1977 until the 1980 election. In 1981 he resigned from Parliament to serve as Australia’s High Commissioner in London.

The 1981 Curtin by-election was won by Liberal candidate Allan Rocher. Rocher had been a Senator since 1977, resigning to run for the by-election. Rocher briefly served as a shadow minister in the early 1990s, but in 1996 was defeated for preselection by Ken Court, son of former Premier Charles Court, and brother of the then-Premier Richard Court. The Court government won re-election shortly before the 1996 federal election, but was engulfed in scandals involving his brother, and Rocher, running as an independent, managed to defeat Court in Curtin, winning re-election as an independent.

Rocher lost Curtin in 1998 to Liberal candidate Julie Bishop. Bishop was appointed Minister for Ageing in the Howard government in 2003, and in 2006 was promoted to cabinet as Minister for Education.

After the defeat of the Howard government in 2007, Bishop was elected as Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party. Bishop served as deputy leader for the next eleven years, including as Foreign Minister from 2013. She stepped down as deputy leader and from the ministry when Malcolm Turnbull was removed as prime minister in 2018, and retired in 2019.

Liberal candidate Celia Hammond won Curtin in 2019.

Candidates

Assessment
Curtin is traditionally a safe Liberal seat, but polling suggests Kate Chaney may have pulled away enough Liberal support to have a real chance of winning.

2019 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Celia Hammond Liberal 48,25654.2-11.354.0
Rob Meecham Labor 15,69217.6+1.918.6
Cameron Pidgeon Greens 13,84715.5+1.415.3
Louise StewartIndependent6,9027.7+7.86.9
Andrew ManganoWestern Australia Party1,3431.5+1.51.6
Bill EdgarOne Nation1,0541.2+1.21.4
Joan Anne LeverUnited Australia Party1,1141.3+1.31.3
Deonne KingsfordAustralian Christians8541.0+1.01.0
Informal2,9273.2+1.2

2019 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Celia Hammond Liberal 57,29664.3-6.463.9
Rob Meecham Labor 31,76635.7+6.436.1

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three parts: north, south, north central and south central.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 58.1% in the north to 70.2% in the south.

The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranged from 14.2% in the south to 18.5% in south central.

Voter groupGRN prim %LIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
North Central14.765.517,33617.3
South Central18.559.116,36116.4
North17.158.115,78015.8
South14.270.215,10915.1
Pre-poll13.365.518,09618.1
Other votes14.265.217,26617.3

Election results in Curtin at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.

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68 COMMENTS

  1. Oh, it’s getting very interesting in Curtin!

    Kate and Celia were both on ABC radio this week. Kate wiped the floor – very articulate and compelling.

    The boundary re-distribution of Curtin will also have an impact … moving into the more suburban (less traditionally affluent) areas of Karrinyup and Innaloo.

    Predict a Chaney [IND] win.

  2. Deeper reading appears to me Chaney has some very “Green” policies.

    There is enough disgruntled Libs in our electorate to certainly have Chaney pull some vote from the Libs, as they send their “message” to Canberra… Issue will be how many Disgruntled Libs did the deeper read like me, and how many of them will find Chaney too “Green” to tolerate…

    Chaney has certainly got a good shot id say, and agree totally that conditions ARE just right for various reasons as posters have suggested…

    Conditions are so much so, that Id say if Julie Bishop had came back as a IND she would of run as the Favourite even…

  3. “The boundary re-distribution of Curtin will also have an impact … moving into the more suburban (less traditionally affluent) areas of Karrinyup and Innaloo.”

    Karrinyup at least is chock full of “second generation” bluebloods who either grew up in the “golden triangle” of Perth (Perth–>City Beach–>Fremantle) or went to private schools there…

    Innaloo perhaps a little less so…

    If there is individual ballot box figures anywhere they would be interesting to look at, but Id figure Karrinyup would be Strongly Lib with Green Preferences, and Innaloo a genuine hodge podge of Lib/Labor/Green

    The difference will probably be the MARGIN of just how strongly Liberal Karrinyup is… versus… say Cottosloe…

    On 2PP Karrinyup might be 60% vs Cottosloe’s 70% for example (Lib v Labor)

    So why it may weaken the position technically by dragging the Average 2PP vote towards Labor, Karrinyup I would not call it a pro Labor Surburb…

    When it comes to a Green vote however… I think the redistribution probably matters more… The demographics added I suspect will be greener than expected… This is largely why I give Chaney a good shot at it…

  4. The Karrinyup, Doubleview, Scarborough areas have many 2nd Gen bluebloods who will heavily favour Chaney, whether their parents will shift is more doubtful. In the long term it will be an increasingly less safe Liberal seat. I’m unsure whether the Chaney campaign has gained enough traction to win this election, however it seems it still has a good chance.

  5. Many of these areas are experiencing what having a local Labor MP is like for the first time ever. Not sure what impact that will have

  6. Poll has independent ahead here. I have heard drips and drabs on Curtin but I have heard so much more from the Teals fight in NSW and Victoria that I just feel their a better chance there especially in Victoria. Celia Hammond primary vote leaves her vulnerable if repeated on polling day though.

    “Utting Research poll for The West Australian showing teal independent Kate Chaney leading Liberal member Celia Hammond 52-48 in Curtin, from primary votes of 38% for Hammond, 32% for Chaney, 13% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 3% for the United Australia Party. “

  7. In Curtin this election, I have seen more corflutes than I have ever seen in my life. Chaney is putting up a good campaign, and the Liberals have had to campaign harder in this seat than they have ever done in recent memory. This seat is definitely in play for Chaney. The east coast media is just ignoring it.

  8. “In Curtin this election, I have seen more corflutes than I have ever seen in my life.”
    100% agree, and as each one costs $50-100, its been a very expensive for the libs to defend, plus all the letters, and other crap.

    Based on Chaney’s website
    $500K has been raised by Chaney plus another $400K invested by Simon Holmes a Court ‘son of Australia’s first billionaire’.
    Looking at the donor wall Mum Rose chucked in another $10K about a fortnight ago. So Im guessing the Chaney camp has burnt through it.
    Imagine that phone call
    “Hi Mum’
    ‘Hello Dear, hows the campaign, how much do you need this time’
    ” Mum, I don’t only call you when I need money, Happy Mothers Day, but seeing you menitoned it??”
    (this just a bit of fun, please don’t sue me KAte or Simon’

    Unfortunately, the parties dont breakdown how much is spent on each electorate, but it would be interesting to see Curtin vs a Pearce.
    YouPoll last week had a win for the Libs, the West had a win for Chaney.
    My tip, winners will be, the voters of Curtin, because in future, they wont be taken for granted as much
    As for who sits to represent them in Canberra
    Liberal Celia Hammond

  9. What size corflutes are you getting over there that they cost $50-100?

    Standard size ones in Brisbane are $5-10, depending on how many you’re ordering at a time.

  10. It might be time to move this seat into the “in doubt” column. Plenty of postals left to be counted and the Teal candidate is being hauled in. What do others think? I’m not sure the outcome is clear given the momentum of the postal count in favour of the Liberal candidate.

  11. Current count
    • Hammond: 44,119
    • Chaney: 45,754

    5,661 declaration votes yet to be counted.

    Let x denote the proportion of remaining votes favouring Hammond.

    Assuming all votes are formal, a tie would be produced if:
    x * 5661 + 44119 = (1 – x) * 5561 + 44754

    The solution to this equation is x ≈ 55.21%.

    So if more than 55.21% of remaining votes favour Hammond, Hammond will win.

    So far, 58.78% of postal votes have favoured Hammond.

    It’s a bit scary, although I should point out:

    • Some votes will be informal.
    • Other types of declaration votes should not favour Hammond as much as postal votes.
    • The EAV votes have not yet been counted.

  12. @SM Bruce that’s a fair point, I’ve been looking at all the teal contests and it’s noticeable that Curtin is really the only one where postals are making a big difference to the margin. The only other seat to show such a huge turnaround is Deakin where Sukkar looks certain to hang on by the skin of his teeth.

  13. Unless Hammond can get 45% she has no chance. Everyone is preferencing Chaney except for Palmer and One Nation.

  14. I have been watching the count here as well, I reckon there are enough absents and provisional votes for Chaney to comfortably hold on. Absents are typically more left leaning than normal votes.

  15. I concur with others here in regards to Curtin, it looks like the last 2000 odd postals counted late today were better for Chaney she won half of them whereas prior to that Hammond was winning 59% of them on average. Chaney maintains a 1600 vote lead overall. There’s 2000 postals left to count, maybe a few more thousand will come in prior to the deadline but there are still 8000 absents and provisionals uncounted that are highly likely to favour Chaney based on prior election results. By the end of it Chaney should win by around 2,500 votes.

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