Casey – Australia 2022

LIB 4.6%

Incumbent MP
Tony Smith, since 2001.

Geography
Eastern fringe of Melbourne. Casey covers the entire Yarra Ranges Shire along with a very small part of the Cardinia council area. Major centres include Lilydale, Montrose, Mooroolbark, Seville, Yarra Junction, Healesville and large areas in the Yarra Ranges with small populations.

Redistribution
Casey expanded slightly on its southern edge, taking in a small area near Emerald from La Trobe.

History
Casey was created for the 1969 election and has almost always been considered to be a marginal seat. Despite the slim margins, the Liberal Party has managed to hold onto the seat consistently since 1984, after an early period where the ALP managed to hold it during the Whitlam government and the Hawke government’s first term.

Casey was first won in 1969 by Peter Howson. Howson had been Member for Fawkner since 1955, and had served as Minister for Air from 1964 until John Gorton’s first cabinet reshuffle, when he was dropped. He returned to cabinet as Australia’s first Minister for the Environment in William McMahon’s cabinet in 1971, but lost his seat in 1972 to the ALP’s Race Mathews.

Mathews held Casey for both terms of the Whitlam government, losing the seat to Peter Falconer (LIB) in 1975. Mathews went on to hold the Victorian state seat of Oakleigh from 1979 until 1992, and served as a state minister from 1982 to 1988.

Peter Falconer was reelected in 1977 and 1980, but lost Casey to the ALP’s Peter Steedman in 1983. Steedman held the seat for one term, and lost to Liberal Bob Halverson in 1984.

The Liberal Party never lost Casey again, and Halverson went on to serve as Speaker of the House of Representatives in the first term of the Howard government until his retirement in 1998.

Casey was won in 1998 by Dr Michael Wooldridge, the Howard government’s Health Minister. Wooldridge had previously held Chisholm since 1987, moving to Casey in 1998. He held it for one term before retiring from politics in 2001.

The seat was won in 2001 by Tony Smith. Smith has been re-elected six times, and was elected Speaker of the House of Representatives in August 2015.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Tony Smith is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Casey has remained in Liberal hands for decades, but has rarely been held by a safe margin. If Labor is doing well in Victoria they could have a chance here, particularly with the retirement of the long-term sitting MP.

2019 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Tony Smith Liberal 45,16845.2-2.345.2
Bill Brindle Labor 28,55128.6+0.428.6
Jenny Game-Lopata Greens 10,91910.9-1.911.0
Ryan Leslie ClarkDerryn Hinch’s Justice3,3093.3+2.63.3
Travis BarkerAnimal Justice3,1053.1-1.23.1
Wendy StarkeyUnited Australia Party2,6072.6+2.62.6
Peter CharletonIndependent2,3022.3-0.32.3
Ross McpheeDemocratic Labour Party2,2462.2+2.32.2
Antony CalabroRise Up Australia8200.8-1.60.8
Jayden O’ConnorGreat Australian Party8010.8+0.80.8
Informal6,8926.5+2.4

2019 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Tony Smith Liberal 54,55154.6+0.154.6
Bill Brindle Labor 45,27745.4-0.145.4

Booth breakdown

Polling places in Casey have been divided into five areas.

The Liberal Party won a majority in four out of five areas, ranging from 50.7% in the east to 57.1% in the centre. Labor won 62.5% in the south-west.

The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 8.9% in the west to 22% in the south-west.

Voter groupGRN prim %LIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
West8.954.520,02919.9
Central10.057.112,27212.2
South-West22.037.510,18510.1
East11.350.76,2216.2
North13.152.14,1314.1
Pre-poll9.058.730,56930.4
Other votes10.258.017,23117.1

Election results in Casey at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.

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65 COMMENTS

  1. In relation to Sean’s comment I’m now better off being retired than when I worked.I’m concerned that we are making things harder for our grandchildren. The idea that everyone deserves what they get is the great Australian”myth.of equality”. A caring society should look after the less fortunate.Ryan is correct in saying that we all benefit from Government spending in some form. I hear often from my fellow ” Riley Retirees and Baby Boomers” that the young are lazy and privileged, but then I count my franking credits and defined benefit super and realise who really are the privileged in our society.

  2. Craig Cole misses to mention that he is supported by Australia One…. even though they have been deregistered in January 2022 they are still running a Facebook page where he is listed

  3. Nicole Gale

    Australia One or Australia First? While barely indistinguishable, I don’t think that Australia One ever were a party.

  4. Craig Cole says that his policies are the same as Australia one- Check them out – scary stuff!

  5. I’m starting to think Labor have a chance in a lot of seats with margins up to 10% and a few beyond. They may not pick up a lot of them but Morrison is clearly on the nose.

  6. One of the preference distributions in the Upwey booth seems to have gone wrong. Either Greens or Teal Indy gone to the wrong pile.

  7. Good to know redistributed, I was wondering why on earth there was a 10% swing to the Liberals in the Upwey booth with no such swing in nearby Upwey South, Tecoma, Upper Ferntree Gully or Belgrave.

  8. It seems that Labor underperformed here compared to the 2010 (even though it was an open seat this time) when they would have come within 0.5% TPP of winning this seat although looking at booth results, they have done better in Sassafras, Kallista, Selby and Ferny Creek etc compared to 2010.

  9. The results here were weird imo.

    The TPP was,
    Labor: 48.52%
    Liberal: 51.48%

    The 3CP was,
    Greens: 23.18%
    Labor: 30.41%
    Liberal: 46.41%

    And the 4CP was,
    Claire Ferres Miles (Ind): 15.02%
    Greens: 15.14%
    Labor: 26.83%
    Liberal: 43.01%

    The Greens could have hypothetically won if they’d managed something like an extra 3% off Labor and 2% off the Liberals. And that’s despite nearly being excluded into 4th place. Labor nearly won the seat itself with a primary of only 24.87%, which feels quite low for Labor.

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