Canning – Australia 2022

LIB 11.6%

Incumbent MP
Andrew Hastie, since 2015.

Geography
South of Perth. Canning covers urban fringe and rural areas to the south of Perth, including Mandurah and most of the Peel region. Canning covers the entirety of the Mandurah, Murray, Serpentine-Jarrahdale and Waroona council areas, as well as parts of the Armadale, Gosnells and Kalamunda council areas.

Redistribution
Canning lost the Boddington council area to O’Connor and lost Orange Grove to Burt.

History
Canning was first created for the expansion of the House of Representatives in 1949. For the early part of its history it was contested between the Liberal Party and the Country Party, and since the 1980s the seat has become much more of a Labor-Liberal marginal seat, usually being held by the party winning government.

The seat was first won in 1949 by Leonard Hamilton of the Country Party, who had previously held Swan since 1946.

Hamilton retired in 1961 and the seat was won by Liberal Neil McNeill, who was defeated by the Country Party’s John Hallett in 1963. Hallett held the seat until 1974, when the Liberal Party’s Mel Bungey defeated him.

The ALP’s Wendy Fatin won the seat in 1983 at the same time as the election of the Hawke government. Fatin transferred to the new seat of Brand in 1984, and the ALP’s George Gear transferred into Canning from Tangney, which he had held after the 1983 election.

Gear was defeated in 1996 by Liberal candidate Ricky Johnston, who had previously ran against Gear at every election since 1984. Johnston was defeated herself by Labor’s Jane Gerick in 1998.

Gerick was defeated narrowly by Liberal candidate Don Randall in 2001.

Randall held Canning for over a decade, winning re-election in 2004, 2007, 2010 and 2013. His narrow margin in 2001 blew out to 59.5% in 2004, shrinking to 52.2% in 2010 before growing out to 61.8% in 2013.

Randall died in early 2015, and the ensuing by-election was won by Liberal candidate Andrew Hastie. Hastie was re-elected in 2016 and 2019.

Candidates

  • Andrew Hastie (Liberal)
  • Amanda Hunt (Labor)
  • Tammi Siwes (One Nation)
  • Anthony Gardyne (Federation)
  • James Waldeck (United Australia)
  • Brad Bedford (Western Australia Party)
  • Judith Congrene (Informed Medical Options)
  • Jodie Moffat (Greens)
  • Ashley Williams (Independent)
  • Andriette du Plessis (Australian Christians)
  • David Gardiner (Liberal Democrats)

Assessment
Canning is a safe Liberal seat.

2019 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Andrew Hastie Liberal 44,58049.0-1.349.1
Mellisa Teede Labor 24,99627.5-5.527.6
Jodie Moffat Greens 6,8407.5-1.27.5
Jackson WrefordOne Nation6,5037.2+7.27.1
Brett ClarkeWestern Australia Party2,5542.8+2.82.8
Steve VeeversUnited Australia Party2,0552.3+2.32.3
Jamie Van BurgelAustralian Christians1,7641.9-1.71.9
Malcolm Phillip HeffernanConservative National Party1,6001.8+1.81.7
Informal5,8906.1+1.9

2019 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Andrew Hastie Liberal 55,94761.6+4.861.6
Mellisa Teede Labor 34,94538.4-4.838.4

Booth breakdown

Booths are split into four areas. About half of the seat’s population is in the Mandurah council area, and this area has been split into Mandurah North and Mandurah South, along the river. The remainder of the seat was split into north and south, with Serptentine-Jarrahdale, Armadale and Kalamunda council areas in the north, and Murray and Waroona council areas in the south.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 56.8% in Mandurah North to 62.5% in the south.

Voter groupGRN primON primLIB 2PPTotal votes% of votes
North10.66.661.613,59415.3
Mandurah North9.16.956.812,34413.9
Mandurah South8.15.361.69,17710.3
South5.97.962.57,3328.2
Pre-poll5.67.362.734,63438.9
Other votes8.48.262.611,96513.4

Election results in Canning at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.

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22 COMMENTS

  1. Peter van Onselen was on the show Insiders and mentioned four seats in WA that on internal polling are gone for the Liberals on current polling. He listed (Swan, Pearce, and Hasluck). But interestingly he also mentioned the seat of Canning. Out of the four this seat is probably the Liberals best chance of retaining.

    I know Andrew Hastie was considered a rising star in the Liberal party. But that was a while ago and he hasn’t seem to eventuate too much since then. However, he is only 39 so its not as if he is in his twilight years.

    Canning has been a seat for Labor like Greenway for the Liberals. Where Labor just hasn’t been able to get over line. Labor’s MP for Burt Matt Keogh failed to win the seat in a bye-election and Alannah Mactiernan gamble of giving up her state career to contest the seat failed in winning the seat. From what I can see Labor hasn’t named a candidate for the seat yet.

  2. Canning is an interesting seat as it has a strong Labor area in Mandurah that is surrounded by strong Liberal areas. It should be a bell-weather seat It is interesting that the margin is 11.6% based on the redistribution so should be an impossible, but I note in the last election there were a number of Andrew Hastie signs scattered throughout the region so maybe it is a seat with an over inflated margin.

  3. @Political Night-watchman

    You have to remember that back in 2010, Don Randall was MP here, and he would have been the reason MacTiernan lost.

  4. Increased Urban Sprawl in areas like Byford may help Labor longer term similar to what has happened in Victoria in the suburb of Pakenham as it has grown.

  5. @Anton Kreitzer

    The late Don Randall was a popular Mp but its not the only reason. When Alannah Mactiernan nominated it looked almost certain she would win the seat. Kevin Rudd had a massive lead in the polls and Canning was on a narrow margin.

    Rudd was encouraged to go to a double dissolution on the CPRS. But Rudd blew it. Tony Abbott was able to gain traction using a scare campaign on the CPRS. Rudd then took it off the agenda and proposed a mining tax which did huge damage to his popularity in the polls. Then the successful leadership challenge from Julia Gillard made the government look unstable. And only just of matter months Mactiernan who looked certain to win the seat had her chances evaporated with a snap of a fingers.

    Randall tragic death would have aided the Liberals in the bye-election. Voters are not likely going punish the government when its been caused in sad circumstances as we saw in the state bye-election in Queensland in the seat of Stretton.

  6. Andrew Hastie is under no threat whatsoever. PVO either misspoke or has started making stupid predictions again. Hastie will be PM by 2028 . iN between we will have a labor PM, & “historical footnote” lib.

  7. WA is largely a mystery to me. Demographically wise, what seat or area would Canning be similar to on the east coast?

  8. @Redistributed Not from WA but my working assumption is something like West Gippsland between Pakenham and the Latrobe Valley, or Ipswich and the Lockyer Valley. Mandurah is kind of a hybrid of a Perth Suburb and its own city, and the rest is rural-ish (except Byford which is also basically a suburb

  9. I’ve also seen comparisons to Geelong, but Mandurah is close enough to Perth sprawl and a lot smaller.

    Not sure how it is from an identity perspective – I know people from Mandurah who simplify and say they’re from Perth to people outside WA. So not like Queanbeyan, Blue Mountains and Geelong residents. But I’m not sure if that’s common, if they’re happy about it or how they’re seen within WA.

  10. “Hastie will be pm by 2028” is quite laughable it won’t happen. According to WD’s logic everyone will be pm.

    He isn’t even on the senior frontbench right now so I don’t see how he becomes leader after the 2025 election. I agree he will hold with his margin cut in half.

    I have always believed Frydenburg will be the next Liberal leader provided he has a seat but they have never had a leader from WA, won’t happen because you know what they did to JB

  11. Daniel October 25, 2021 at 5:19 pm
    “Hastie will be pm by 2028” is quite laughable it won’t happen. According to WD’s logic everyone will be pm.”
    HAHAHHAHAHAHA Want to put my predictions against yours !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!. Guess who will look the Goose !???
    Hhahahahaha!!!!.
    thanks for the laugh WD

  12. Guess winediamond means PM material, that is a member who has leadership qualities but hasnt been able to obtain a party leadership position yet. I believe Andrew Hastie is one of the strongest performers with his conviction on international issues (such as China)

  13. Yoh An
    Yes. Exactly right.
    Hastie & Stoker are the highest functioning Achiever/Performer type 3 personalities in parliament.
    Compare their meagre vanity, arrogance, & propagandising, to the squalid excesses of the PM, Dan Andrews, or KK.
    Or the oily seductive lasciviousness of “Tricky Dicky, or “pork” Bariilaro !!.

    I truly see Hastie as Australia’s JFK. But if he is even close to Bob Hawke that would be plenty better than what we are being offered now.
    cheers wd

  14. I feel this seat has potential for a very large swing towards Labor but it won’t be enough to unseat Hastie. The current margin seems very inflated and Canning has a history of very strong swings in both directions. As Hastie gains more prominence in the hard right faction of the Liberal Party, he may be seen as a Dutton 2.0 which might make him the target of Getup or other such groups.

  15. Could have an impact especially if Hastie gets somehow involved in it due to his SAS history. Hopefully he will be toppled since he’s essentially another Dutton and is likely the hard right’s replacement for Dutton after Dutton loses or retires.

  16. The BRS case might have some impact, probably not a lot in it though. Expect all the WA seats to have a larger than average swing to Labor the question is how large. Likely LNP retain but Canning could be a smoky if state election allegiances carry over more to the federal election than most expect.

  17. It seemed Labor underperformed here compared to WA more generally. I thought there will be more Red around Byford (mortgage belt) and Mandurah north of the estuary. Any insights

  18. Maybe Andrew Hastie’s hawkish stance on China helped him here. There’s bound to be some areas that are supportive of the rhetoric otherwise why would the Libs decided to be so hawkish. Hastie did very well in 2019 as well.

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