Bonner – Australia 2022

LNP 7.4%

Incumbent MP
Ross Vasta, since 2010, previously 2004-2007.

Geography
Eastern suburbs of Brisbane. Bonner covers eastern parts of the City of Brisbane south of the Brisbane River. Main suburbs include Wynnum, Manly, Mount Gravatt and Carindale, as well as the sparsely populated Moreton Island.

History

Bonner was created at the redistribution prior to the 2004 election as a notionally Labor seat, taking in the most pro-Labor parts of Bowman, then held by the ALP.

At the 2004 election, sitting Member for Bowman Con Sciacca ran for Bonner. Sciacca had held Bowman since 1987, except for one term after losing the seat in 1996. A swing to the Liberal Party saw Sciacca defeated by Ross Vasta (LIB) by less than 800 votes.

A 5% swing to the ALP gave the seat to Kerry Rea in 2007. In 2010, Rea was challenged by Vasta, who won the seat back for the Liberal National Party. Vasta has been re-elected at the last three elections.

Candidates

Assessment
Bonner has been won by the LNP at all but one election in its history but has always been less pro-LNP than Queensland as a whole, but that gap has narrowed at the last two elections as Bonner has moved out of the marginal category. It’s unlikely the LNP would lose here.

2019 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Ross Vasta Liberal National 46,61649.5+3.1
Jo Briskey Labor 29,29131.1-3.8
Barbara Bell Greens 11,01011.7+2.2
Ian SymesOne Nation3,7714.0+4.0
Simon E F FlitcroftUnited Australia Party2,3942.5+2.5
Alex MaynardConservative National Party1,1051.2+1.2
Informal2,8402.9-0.1

2019 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Ross Vasta Liberal National 54,07257.4+4.0
Jo Briskey Labor 40,11542.6-4.0

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three parts: Mount Gravatt in the south, Wynnum-Manly in the north, and a group covering booths in the central part of the seat.

The LNP won a sizeable 59.3% two-party-preferred vote in the centre, and won the south more narrowly (53.6%), while Labor narrowly won in the north (50.4%).

The Greens polled over 14% in the north and south, and polled 11.6% in the centre.

Voter groupGRN prim %LNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
South14.053.617,44118.5
Central11.659.315,82516.8
North14.549.612,99213.8
Pre-poll9.659.029,43431.3
Other votes10.962.418,49519.6

Election results in Bonner at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.

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19 COMMENTS

  1. This seat was the Most Marginal Liberal seat in Brisbane going into the 2007 election and was notionally Labor upon its creation in 2004. However, this seat does not look competitive these days. It is generally a middle income seat. I have heard the west of the seat around Carindale, Wishart and Mansfield is Brisbane’s Bible Belt but Labor usually does well in all of Brisbane’s coastal suburbs except Redlands so i think the margin is inflated. Is there demographic change or has Vasta built up a personal vote.

  2. Bonner isn’t getting alot of discussion on here or in the media so it’s interesting that Labor reasonably competitive odds here Liberal: $1.25 Labor: $3.70. The loss of 8 seats for Labor in Queensland in 2010 which included Bonner has made it hard for federal Labor. And the old saying goes once you have lost those seats it’s hard to get them back. Ross Vasta has really benefited from incumbency as the movement of seats has relatively been stable in Queensland federally. As the Liberals have either lost two seats or gained them through 2010 – 2021 Queensland period.

    Labor’s candidate is Chief Executive Officer of the Aboriginal Family Legal Service Southern Queensland Tabatha Young.

    My prediction Liberal retain.

  3. PN, not sure I’d describe those as reasonably competitive odds for Labor. They’re not rating a Vasta victory as an inevitability, but still consider it highly likely.

  4. I live in Bonner and I know several neighbours who consistently vote for Ross Vasta because “he leaves us to live our lives and doesn’t bother us too much.” To me this reeks of privilege but I was pleased to see that his parliamentary attendance was 82%. While I strongly suspect he will win the seat again, I am not planning to vote for him. I’d like a representative we see and hear from year-round, not just when an election is looming.

  5. Hi Raia
    You could consider voting for myself as the Greens candidate. this statement “he leaves us to live our lives and doesn’t bother us too much.” is not correct. the LNP will do what every their donor’s ask and that is now becoming apparent with the demolition of perfectly good housing stock to build fence to fence units. Only a matter of time before you get bothered!
    This is not the way to build a sustainable society where all have access to education, housing, transport and health as the most basic of life’s needs
    Cheers
    Bernard Lakey

  6. I find it amazing that no one is talking about Bonner and the ALP doesn’t seem to be putting much effort into it.

    It was won by them in 2007 and on face value seems as likely as Ryan to fall (for different reasons). I personally don’t think it would be gained, but certainly think it is more likely than Dickson.

  7. @LNP Insider, because Labor are no chance here just like they are no chance in any seat they don’t currently hold in Qld, even Longman (except maybe Brisbane) and I say this as a Labor voter. Qld will be boring this election. NSW, Tas and WA is where election will be won.

  8. @Feel the Bern, with current polling suggesting a 9% swing in Queensland, what makes you think that there will not be a swing on in QLD. I think people are just expecting QLD to do the same thing it did last election despite pretty much all polling telling us this election is different.

    I certainly think Bonner is in play, the polls are now no longer tightening, and it’s an electorate that is in Brisbane and historically more labor leaning than the rest of Queensland.

    Also Longman, Leichhardt, Brisbane will all most likely fall, and plenty of other seats could be in play.

  9. @Huge would love you to be right but individual seat polling I’ve seen does not back this up, Labor at a point had almost given up on Longman, notice you’ve hardly seen Albo visit there this campaign? As for Leichardt, I hear every election it might go, Labor will win it when Entsch retires. As for the 9 percent swing in Qld, I’ve seen no one say that will happen.

  10. I wouldn’t say Bonner is in play, because it contains Brisbane’s bible belt, the sort of people who are firmly rusted on to the LNP because of social conservatism and how conspicuously Morrison practises his faith. Citipointe College, which became notorious during the Religious Discrimination Act saga earlier this year, is within this electorate, as are most of its student base’s parents. On top of this, the electorate has a large number of over-65s who like to retire by the seaside, and are a dependable vote bank for the LNP.

    2007 is an irrelevance at this point. Bonner fell to Labor that year along with many other Queensland seats that now consistenly vote for the LNP, mainly because they had a charismatic Queenslander as leader, something that is not the case in 2022.

  11. I don’t agree that churchgoers are more likely to vote for the coalition. I wouldn’t even call Hillsong in Mt Gravatt that conservative.

    If anything it’s the exact opposite. This isn’t the south in the united states but remember those folks believe the earth is flat. And the difference between there and here is most people are middle income working class families in a mortgage. Key battleground voters.

    That being said this will probably stay with the LNP but will be marginal

    People don’t care about Morrisons faith. And more and more Australians are recognising themselves as “Irreligious”

  12. Considering the way the campaign has gone this seat is a huge possibility.

    Any drift in preference flow plus even a 4% drop in Vasta’s primary will make this worth watching.

  13. @Daniel

    There are statistics confirming that though – churchgoers overall (and those who identify as “Christian”) are quite a bit more likely to say they usually vote coalition than the non-religious are.

    I’ll have a dig for the source on that.

  14. Just been speaking to a friend who lives in Bayside Brisbane – “I’m a lifelong Liberal voter but I just can’t vote for the prick”. I get the impression that there is a lot of that sentiment out there especially in the cities – maybe outside as well. Saturday could be very ugly for the Libs ….

  15. The Greens did quite well here. Knowing very little about it, I wonder if they might try improve their vote next time and then try take it in 2028?

  16. I’d think 2031 rather than 2028. The three Brissie seats are already a huge victory; there’ll need to be at least one cycle of pure consolidation IMHO.

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