LIB 10.1%
Incumbent MP
Alan Tudge, since 2010.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2019 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
Eastern suburbs of Melbourne. Aston’s boundaries align with the Knox local government area. Suburbs include Bayswater, Boronia, Knoxfield, Scoresby, Wantirna and Rowville.
History
Aston was first created as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives in 1984, and has tended to be a marginal seat, although the seat has been consistently held by the Liberal Party for the last two decades.
Aston was first won in 1984 by ALP candidate John Saunderson, who had previously been elected to Deakin at the 1983 election. Saunderson held on with a smaller margin in 1987 before losing with a 7% swing at the 1990 election.
The seat was won in 1990 by Peter Nugent (LIB). Nugent was known as a moderate Liberal who supported human rights issues. He was reelected with a slim margin in 1993 and pushed his margin out to almost 6% in 1996, and was re-elected again in 1998. Nugent died in April 2001 of a heart attack, triggering the Aston by-election.
The Howard government was not performing strongly in the first half of 2001, having seen disastrous results in state elections in Queensland and Western Australia and the loss of the blue-ribbon Brisbane seat of Ryan in another federal by-election.
The Liberal Party’s candidate, Chris Pearce, managed to hold on with 50.6% of the vote, limiting the anti-Liberal swing to 3.7%, which was seen as a strong result for the government, and the beginning of the turnaround which saw the Howard government returned at the 2001 election.
Pearce was reelected with just over 56% in 2001, and pushed his margin to over 63% in 2004, the largest victory margin in Aston’s history. Pearce was again re-elected in 2007, although his margin was cut to 5%.
In 2010, Pearce retired and the Liberal Party’s Alan Tudge won the seat with a reduced margin. Tudge has been re-elected three times.
- Rebekah Spelman (United Australia)
- Alan Tudge (Liberal)
- Asher Cookson (Greens)
- Ryan Bruce (TNL)
- Craig Ibbotson (One Nation)
- Liam Roche (Liberal Democrats)
- Mary Doyle (Labor)
Assessment
Aston is a safe Liberal seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Alan Tudge | Liberal | 54,744 | 54.7 | +5.2 |
| Kadira Pethiyagoda | Labor | 29,839 | 29.8 | -1.2 |
| Asher Cookson | Greens | 8,867 | 8.9 | -0.1 |
| Matthew Sirianni-Duffy | United Australia Party | 3,611 | 3.6 | +3.6 |
| Anna Kennedy | Democratic Labour Party | 3,029 | 3.0 | +3.0 |
| Informal | 3,829 | 3.7 | -0.5 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Alan Tudge | Liberal | 60,180 | 60.1 | +2.7 |
| Kadira Pethiyagoda | Labor | 39,910 | 39.9 | -2.7 |
Polling places in Aston have been divided into four parts: central, north-east, north-west and south.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 51.2% in the north-east to 63.1% in the south.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 7.0 | 63.1 | 12,816 | 12.8 |
| North-West | 9.2 | 57.0 | 12,439 | 12.4 |
| Central | 9.4 | 56.8 | 12,170 | 12.2 |
| North-East | 13.2 | 51.2 | 9,751 | 9.7 |
| Pre-poll | 7.7 | 62.9 | 39,644 | 39.6 |
| Other votes | 10.3 | 61.5 | 13,270 | 13.3 |
Election results in Aston at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.
Tudge has a huge personal vote here, The margin is inflated. You could argue Labor came close in 2010 because of the ”homegirl factor” But you have to remember there were many seats in Victoria that were safer than Aston back in 2010 than they are now. Menzies,Goldstein,Casey,Flinders,Higgins,McMillan/Monash,Wannon and Kooyong. That is allot of seats that were safer than Aston back then.
There is no evidence that this seat has trended Liberal. Just a high personal following for the incumbent and the boundaries have changed very little, Labor just hasn’t recovered from the big swing against them here in 2013.
When Tudge retires and when the environment is right for Labor this will return to around its 2010 margin.
Disagree there.
I grew up in Aston. Even with popular local members with large personal votes, the seat was still highly marginal until the early 2000s (it was seen as a major setback for Labor to fail to gain Aston at the 2001 by-election, for example). Peter Nugent was highly popular and respected locally, and he never got close to a double-digit margin despite Aston having more pro-Liberal boundaries during his tenure.
The demographics have absolutely changed here to be more pro-Liberal: areas like Rowville and Wantirna South (where I grew up) were the End Of The Earth 30 years ago…..now they are fairly affluent and desirable areas. There’s also one of the huge Hillsong-y churches in Knox which has brought in a more conservative demographic.
Also note the overlapping state seats have moved towards the Liberals too. Compare the two Labor landslides of 2002 and 2018, noting in 2002 the boundaries were more favourable to the Liberals.
Has Tudge really a personal vote? l suspect not…. He is quite accident prone as a minister… Maybe the improvement in the liberal vote is due to demographics only
You also have to see how the religious right will play out for Tudge considering his affair became public and the the Federal Court found that Tudge “engaged in conduct which can only be described as criminal,” and that Tudge had deprived the asylum seeker of his liberty
As someone who lives in this seat I can confidently say that the liberal party will hold on. The reason being due to the demographic change that has made this seat more wealthy also it has become quite established which tends to favour the liberal party.
Agree with Mark and Bob, It is likely that the seat will further swing to the Liberals at the next election. Back in the late 80s/Early 90s this was a mortgage belt seat full of young families. Today it is an established/settled area with an ageing population increasing full of baby boomer empty nesters. This trend favours the Liberal Party. As Melbourne urban sprawl has grown, this area is now more like middle ring suburbs rather than Outer Growth areas (as Mark mentioned) and the mortgage belt is further out such as the Casey/Cardinia . At the recent state redistribution, Ferntree Gully was proposed to be abolished and Rowville was well under quota.
Question from someone who hasn’t moved out – how do mortgages affect voting tendencies?
Whats interesting is if Aston was on these boundaries in 2010 Labor would have won this seat.
Nicholas –
I classify the average mortgage belter as *the* classic Liberal-federal / Labor-state voter. They’ve got a mortgage to pay off so they like what the Liberals are saying economically at the federal level… and they’ve probably also got young kids, so they like what Labor’s saying about health and education at the state level.
I live in this seat. Wantirna/Wantirna South and Rowville/Lysterfield are the only reason this seat is so safe for the Liberals, they have increasingly become very affluent and conservative. Everywhere else like Boronia, Ferntree Gully, Bayswater, Scoresby are very middle class and marginal. The closer to the Dandenongs you get the more progressive.
This area is probably one of the least diverse, most Anglo areas of Melbourne with the exception of Wantirna South which has a sizeable Chinese community.
Hard to believe this area has become the safest Liberal seat in Melbourne.
I live in Lysterfield and I’m seeing more and more cultural diversity as I walk around Rowville and Lysterfield.
While there are generally more older families than young families, the cross section I speak with are very keen on Climate Action and anti-corruption. I’d like to believe that antics of Tudge and the cronies of the current Fed Govt. will encourage voters to rethink how they vote.
Peter H, Good point about ethnic diversity. Adam mentioned there is a large Chinese community in Wantirna South. There is also a sizeable South Asian (particularly Sri Lankan Community) in Rowville, Wantirna South, Knoxfield and Wantirna. This is a seat where the more affluent areas are more ethnically diverse than the less affluent areas such as Boronia, Bayswater etc.
National Tertiary Education Union organiser Mary Doyle is Labor’s candidate here.
With the new allegations that have surfaced against Tudge here will result in a big swing against him unless proven innocent. Unlike other seats in metropolitan Victoria a 5% swing against him will not hurt him too much with him being able to hold with still a substantial buffer.
This seat is now somehow safer than Higgins, Kooyong, Goldstein, Flinders and Menzies. No clue how.
Ben, see comments above by Mark Mulcair and others. As Melbourne has grown, the suburbs in this district have changed from outer suburban/mortgage belt type to middle ring, affluent areas. This changes the characteristic of the district from a marginal/swing one to a safe conservative stronghold.
If Mark Mulcair is right about the strong Christian/Hillsong influence in this seat, it is probably similar to the Hills District or Sutherland Shire areas in Sydney, now strongly conservative leaning areas.
I still think Liberal will hold here.
I would say Aston is similar to the Western Part of the Hills District: Bella Vista, Kellyville, Rouse Hill, Beaumont Hils and Baulkham Hills. I feel the Eastern Part of the Hills District like Caste Hill is more like Templestowe in Menzies. Potentially suburbs such as Kings Langley and the affluent suburbs of Blacktown LGA may become the next Aston.
The margin margin here may be a ‘little’ inflated due to Tudge’s personal vote which could now be affected. The region certainly leans conservative but those 54, 56 and 58 booths in the western part of Ferntree Gully would probably naturally be 50-50 without Tudge’s personal vote.
Knox is still nowhere near as affluent as The Hills, or even Sutherland. Perhaps that explains why the margin is only 10% and not 20%
Bayswater and Boronia are not affluent suburbs and probably the poorest in the Eastern Suburbs. Their SEIFA scores are below Melbourne’s average The Hills Shire has no suburbs with a SEIFA score less than 70 and is quite homogeneous socio-economically while Knox has some significant differences between suburbs. As mentioned in a previous comment i feel the Labor vote is suppressed in the lower income suburbs along the Belgrave line as these suburbs are not ethnically diverse. These suburbs may the Howard Battler suburbs or “Anglo working class”.
I predict Tudge will retire which may help the Liberals hold on with a new candidate. If he does retire I believe this will be a record number of retirements at an election in Australian history? If not which election produced more retirements?
Also note just because someone is pre-selected doesn’t mean they can’t change their mind before the deadline for the candidates.
Its possible they could get Heidi Victoria the former member for Bayswater to run for this seat, however I am on speculating & don’t know if she intents to return to politics at all.
I wouldn’t call any parts of Knox/Aston working class or poor. Most of the area is upper-middle class, while Bayswater, Boronia and Ferntree Gully are just middle class. It is a very Anglo region. Boronia/Bayswater have no where near the level of disadvantage as southeastern, northern or western Melbourne.
I thought Heidi Victoria may have had another go at Bayswater in next years state election, but now that Ferntree Gully has been abolished it seems likely Nick Waekling will be the Lib’s candidate.
Nicholas, I get your point although speaking from personal experience, I wouldn’t exactly call Sutherland affluent even in comparison to Knox.
Forgot to finish my thought…
Daniel, you are not correct. 2013 sets the recent benchmark I believe with around 30 or so retirements. In terms of government numbers, we are still one off matching 2019 and are below all five of the previous federal elections.
Perception is an amazing thing eh
As expected, Nick Waekling is contesting the now notionally Liberal state seat of Bayswater after his seat of Ferntree Gully was abolished. He is promising to extend the 75 tram route is Westfield Knox. Campaigning in Boronia today.
Mark Mulcair said “There’s also one of the huge Hillsong-y churches in Knox which has brought in a more conservative demographic.”
Anyone who knows that demographic (aka engages with it internally) knows most live OUT of the area (as in I’d be surprised if more than 30% of them live locally, most travel), not in it, it has little if nothing to do with the vote distribution and Hillsong is all under 30’s also.
Alan Tudge’s popularity is due to his community profile, which is to be honest ‘overwhelming’.
I don’t vote that way, but realise the river running under the bridge is fast in Alan’s direction, I’d say even I’m impressed with how much local action he is able to do, more than the state ALP candidate Jackson Taylor who has a gmail autoresponder to his parliment email and never answers his phone. (the man is a hermit, and for someone only winning by the votes beaten out of union tradies (around 20 votes) he is ‘lucky’ to still be there, and I can’t see him winning back the seat for the ALP at state.
Alan really is the candidate EVERYONE wishes they had at local level, and that alone IMHO is a 10% swing in his favour
Alan Tudge is speculated to be sacked from cabinet which will mean he’ll not be running here in the next election. It will be interesting to see how much of a personal vote he really has or if it’s simply demographic changes here.
If Tudge has a personal vote than that can go or shift and be a negative vote on the same basis.60/40 is a good vote and is a safe seat margin.There aren’t many non country seats in Victoria like this. This is a very hard ask for labor
I wonder what will be the vote if Tudge never had the personal vote like some other electorates or if he retired. Aston although demographics could have somewhat played a factor, I still feel the margin is a bit inflated (even as late as 2010, they were very marginal even with more pro-LNP boundaries and the state-level margins are much smaller). There are areas in Melbourne that are more sought after for the wealthy than Knox but they have smaller margins for LNP or even ALP hold
@Bob why would he not be running at the election if he was simply sacked from cabinet?
Barclay McGain
Yeah getting fired isn’t a death sentence !. Sadly many fired ministers have proven “hard to kill”! When i look at all the RGR ministers, & cockroaches like Stuart Robert, Michael McMormack, Darren Chester, i think more’s the pity !
Barclay McGain,
They don’t want to have to sandbag a seat like this where other seats surrounding need the time as well as the resources. Until Tudge can prove he didn’t do what he has been accused for & I’m not saying he innocent or guilty it is a dark cloud over his head that will cause problems that the LNP which they can’t afford.
Tudge has quite the cabinet, I expect that he will resign & not contest the next election.
Alan Tudge is still in place with the election now declared 6 weeks away. He has a strong mail out and photo presence. I wonder what the female and conservative Christian vote will be given the allegations and the affair. I predict a strong vote against Tudge.
I gst at least one or two flyers in the post a week from Alan Tudge but his face is nowhere to be seen elsewhere. I wonder if that will change now that the election has been called. Last time around his face was on display at just about every intersection in Knox but I suppose last time the Liberals had just lost Bayswater in the state election so were a little worried about this seat. No such worries this time.
Well Alan Tudge doesn’t exactly have the best reputation after the affair and allegations came out so it would probably be better for him to not be too visible.
Received election material today & there were five noticeable things about it. Firstly, Scott Morrison was not on the material at all. Secondly, Alan Tudge was not on the material at all. Thirdy, the material is red making look like labor holds this seat as they do in the state & are hoping people will get confused. Fourthly, Liberal is not mentioned on it at all. Fifthly, they are attacking the state labor government & blaming Anthony Albanese. I think the LNP are hoping to get some of the anger towards the state ALP government.
Bob was the pamphlet endorsed by anyone
@Michael,
Yes in very tiny tiny fine print it said the Liberal Party.
Tudge is popular around here – he is and has been a very visible presence for a long time now….schools, sports clubs etc. The population is very stable and people don’t move much unless its incomers into the great big houses springing up all over the place. State Labor are not popular – I saw several instances of anti Andrews graffiti during the lockdown years when out and about with the dog – people are still dirty about him. I think Tudge will be returned again
This $500,000 pay out to Racheal Miller is certainly not a good look for Tudge. Why is she getting the pay out? What are the ‘conditions’ attached to this pay out. We need answers to these questions! I don’t think Tudge should be Education Minister again but I think he will be if LNP get re-elected. Predicitng Tudge will have a 5% swing against him but still hold with a 5% margin.
Marc I asked the same question about the payout on Tudge s website so far no response from either Mr Tudge or his supporters.Mr Morrison seemed to have trouble with the truth again saying he doesn’t know anything about the payout. Oh for a competent teal
Yes Mick, so many questions but no answers. We need better than this from someone who expects to recontest his seat and wishes people to vote from him. Tudge will be relying on his personal popularity in Aston but I expect some women may not be impressed!
Tudge keeps canceling meetings, I know a few people that tried to speak to him & he simply is not available. I think letting him re-contest could really backfire, however I don’t think this seat will fall due to the large margin here.
It is very hard to see Alan Tudge ever going back to a frontbench after this. The Rachelle Miller business was one thing but this funny cabinet limbo provokes a lot of questions.
Taxpayers get to pay half a million dollars to Tudge to help him bounce back after he his abusive sexual affair with his blond staffer. Sounds legit.