Gilmore – Australia 2019

Bad news for Sudmalis. Fiona Philips is contesting again. Sudmalis has proven herself to be a very poor campaigner.It is hard not to see Labor taking Gilmore.

If you look at the overlapping state Districts, they’re all comfortably Liberal held by 8-10%

Even allowing for other factors, it’s not surprising if there’s rumblings about Sudmalis, if she can barely scrape out a win on these boundaries.

That’s part of a broader pattern. You see the same thing in Eden-Monaro.

David Walsh
Sorry i disagree E-M is still a fundamentally Labor seat. Gilmore based on the Shoalhaven LGA is not. It is extremely difficult not to hold Sudmalis responsible for the Libs pathetic showing. I’ll go further- she just IS totally pathetic.

south coast and Kiama have comfortable lib majorities on state figures….. why did Kiama fail to swing? Shelly Hancock is a much better mp than Sudmalis………probable alp win

Greens could do well here if they take advantage of the fact that sitting local government members have now been proven to be eligible for federal parliament.

Interesting that Kiama is the one part of this seat with a Lib 2PP majority at the last election. It used to be a Labor area, and I don’t think its demographics have changed that much, while the Nowra area, despite its demographics, used to be Liberal. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this become a seat Labor wins more often than not in the future.

I just feel compelled to go further WRT to Sudmalis. Her 2016 result flattered her as she had a very favourable redistribution. When this is taken into account it makes her (lack of ) performance all the more culpable, & pathetic.
As Chris points out above Sudmalis even received the completely undeserved outcome of Kiama having a slight swing to the liberals. This is even more inexplicable when the furore about Kiama’s council almost being amalgamated with Shellharbor is considered. Truly this woman had far more luck than she deserved.

As a local resident I will clarify a few things posted in comments. Firstly, the region doesn’t react positively to “party politics” – local councillors tend to run as “independents” rather then disclose their political affiliations. The state electorates of South Coast and Kiama are marginal. South Coast was held for a long time by an independent (John Hatton) while Kiama electorate had been ALP until 2011. Regardless of political affiliations but generally is a tactic employed by the Liberal members of the state and federal level is to represent themselves as “independent” rather then reflect themselves as part of party politics. The other thing to note is that previously the ALP candidates for Gilmore were from Kiama including the last ALP member Peter Knott. The ALP candidate for Gilmore, Fiona Phillips, is from the Shoalhaven which has changed things.

There are various demographic changes and situations occurring in the Shoalhaven and Kiama. In Kiama, the population is getting older (median age has increased), there is a higher level of wealth and unemployment has remained relatively steady. In the Shoalhaven however, the population is growing faster but so is unemployment, particularly youth unemployment. Youth unemployment has significantly increased to being one of the highest in Australia. The population in the Shoalhaven is younger and within the last decade there are many Labor voting retirees from the Illawarra-Wollongong area who are moving into affordable housing areas in the Shoalhaven.

The proposed amalgamation between Kiama-Shoalhaven councils was in the back of everyone’s minds in 2016 but is not in play anymore as that proposal didn’t eventuate (thank goodness!) – but the issues that are relevant to this region is unemployment/youth unemployment, education and health, NBN issues and the need for increased infrastructure. The roads and public transport situation – particularly in the Shoalhaven – is a joke and in some circumstances 3rd world conditioned.

The Greens vote is interesting. Kiama votes high for Greens (14-20%). The Shoalhaven has never really been a Green voting area until 2016. Subsequently following the 2016 federal election (Sudmalis’ reelection) was the local council elections. The former Liberal member for Gilmore, Joanna Gash, attempted at a second term for mayor of the Shoalhaven. Her vote collapsed. She had 65% of the popular vote in 2012 for mayor but only 35% for 2016. She lost the mayoral election to Greens candidate Amanda Findley and the Greens representation increased from 1 to 4 including holding the mayoral position and 1 councillor in each ward. Liberal vote collapsed, ALP gained its first councillor in decades in 1 Ward and the “Shoalhaven Independents Group” made small gains.

Many people in the Shoalhaven are very fatigued of Liberals in their region. They’ve had 21 years of Gash/Sudmalis for Gilmore, 16 years of Hancock for South Coast, 8 years of Ward for Kiama and a bloody long legacy of Liberal control over local councils particularly in the Shoalhaven. Many local issues are being highly pinpointed on the Liberals. The one thing I have not mentioned is Sudmalis herself – that’s already been discussed on this comment thread so I will leave it at that.

We never know the end result until Election Day but I find it very difficult to see how the Liberals could retain this seat at the 2019 election.

S
Thankyou for such an interesting, & detailed post. I wasn’t aware that the demographics were changing so rapidly. The enrolment numbers have not shifted much. The influx of retirees from the Illawarra / Wollongong was surprising. Are they being pushed out by economic factors ?
Do you have any examples of the ineptitude of Sudmalis ?

Carmel McCallum is recontesting for the Greens.

I really can’t get a read on Amanda Findley’s popularity as mayor – not much in the way of scandal or other negativity, but not finding much to suggest she’s “popular” either.

At any rate the Greens don’t seem to be hyping it up as winnable at all, at any tier of government.

Nine News is reporting that Ann Sudmalis has informed Scott Morrison that she won’t stand as a candidate next election

Labour gain maybe 54-46 because of the polling and the fact she isn’t running here

Sudmalis not recontesting may actually help the Liberals, but they’re doomed either way.

Fiona Phillips has been preselected as the candidate for Gilmore since a few months after the last election. That kind of stable commitment will really shine through now.

Sudmalis gone. The Libs now have some kind of very vague chance. Likely Labor gain. However they won’t hold it.

side bar…; what happens in the local state seats especially Kiama

yeah gilmore will be red since 1993.

Warren Mundine preselected. Game on.

A former president yes PRESIDENT of the ALP. Talk about firepower Warren brings a 105mm Howitzer to the table, vs Phillips cap gun. I’ll be bold and predict a Lib hold

What a BIG JOKE, Look at the bloody margin! It will be an easy fall with the current polling, Only chance this stays liberal is if it is a very tight election. if Labour stay above 53-47, I see them gaining this, Just like How Peter Beattie couldn’t win Forde in 2013 despite how high profile he was, No way this is a liberal hold

You people are pathetic to think this is a liberal hold, seriously, they dumped a candidate for no reason, putting party interest ahead of the people, The former liberal candidate is running as an independent, it wont matter who he prefernces, the liberal primary vote will be less than 40% after this, It wont impress Coalition voters that a former ALP president is standing. Idk whwt your on to think the liberals will hold, But this should be an easy Labor gain. They only care about holding this seat, They dont care about the people. They dont care about womans issues, this party is very sexist. Anyone who believes its a win here is supporting a coalition win. The liberal party has turned into the Tea party of australia, and im about to move out because of tbis, too many issues are at stake, i respect peoples views but, they are too extreme for me and some others to cope with. The party needs to seriously change, They need to be a party of the people, and not the party of white men if they want to win an election ever again.

Warren Mundine will be seen as a traitor. Absolutely no way he wins, especially now that the Gilmore Libs are in disarray.

Weird stuff but Mundine will not win. The current Liberal candidate said today he has resigned from the Liberal Party and will stand as an Independent. By the tone of his TV interview I dont think his HTV will have this part aborigine bloke well placed. Also is Mundine still a member of the ALP? This is an act of desperation by the PM.

those sponsered by sky news after dark don’t deserve to win….. and he will not

What a complete shit show. Announcing Mundine just to get him headlines at the 6pm news of a former labor man running for the liberals, but it’s just fallen apart. Formerly endorsed candidate now running as an independent and bad mouthing the party, I read a local liberal in an article said no one would man the booths if they got overruled like this. On top of the Nationals rumoured to run too.

Won’t matter in the end, easy Labor gain.

I think Labor has picked a better candidate. Based on what I’ve heard about Warren Mundine, he sounds like a bit of a career politician. Does he actually have any connection to the seat?

I understand that people move from party to party. However anyone who moves from a party at one end of political spectrum to one on the other end has got to be viewed with suspicion.
Mundine needs to explain why and reporters need to be grilling him about those areas where he has previosly advocated ALP policy.
Calling him names is not the solution
His own answers will convince the electorate they whether he can be trusted or not.

He may have very good reasons for switching but he has an obligation to say why.
As for endorsed Liberal candidate – they gave an undertaking to support Liberal Party that undertaking is still valid even if they are not candidate. This candidate now standing as an independent needs to be quizzed aggressively by both media and electorate.
My inclination is to treat both Mundine and now the new independent candidate with suspicion.

Wow. Some very impassioned responses.
Daniel we don’t seem to agree on much, do we ?.
1/ The margin was massively inflated by the total ineptitude of Sudamalis. She was & is a complete moron. No thinking person could have voted for her. Look at the swing.
2/ this election is no done deal . to compare it to a 2013 landslide is premature even for such an idealist as yourself.
3/ Grant Schultz is just a another sleazy Real Estate Agent, posturing as a pillar of society. He would also be a second generation pollie . A species to be viewed with suspicion, if not contempt.
His father Alby was a complete mongrel, who ought to have been disendorsed, if not expelled. I understand your disappointment in his replacement, however most will be cheering. I am.
Schultz was a dud candidate, & he still is. It is great that he is running as an indie. He will go nowhere.

As for your spray about the woman rights, representation issue. I suggest you study the enneagram as this will quickly reveal why there are so few women in politics. Politics is a toxic monoculture of type 5 fixations. Statistically there are very few type 5 women, compared to men. If you seriously want more women in politics change the political environment, & culture. If not then stop wailing about injustice, & prejudice . The world is as it is. Deal with it. Avoiding realities is futile

As a Lib Democrat voter i find your contention that the Liberals are some sort of right wing “Tea Party” Incomprehensibly laughable & quite ridiculous. The problem the Libs have is the same as Labor. They have an absence of genuine values, & transpersonal goals (for the nation) Mundine will serve as an excellent example of the contrary. He is a great man. You could learn from him.

According the The Canberra Times today Mundine left the Labor Party in 2012 but only joined the Liberal Party yesterday (Tuesday).

Winediamond, you aren’t the only one to have had problems with Daniel.

From what I understand on the ground, Grant Schultz had been undermining Ann Sudmalis for years to have a crack at the seat. Effectively, Morrison is trying to counter giving Schultz the seat due to his allegedly poor behaviour and is parachuting Mundine into the seat. Sudmalis was useless but to reward Grant Schultz for his behaviour would be wrong.

Andrew Jackson (no relation) – Yes but (22 Jan 19) both the Labor and Liberal parties are mostly in the centre these days, except the Liberals are better at running the economy for the most part.

Trading one group of Liberals (those who backed Schultz) for another (those who backed Sudmalis). Mundine might have a decent national profile, but I think that better helps with becoming a Senator rather than a local MP. Mundine may stem the Labor vote a bit as it doesn’t seem like Schultz was particularly well liked, but I’d still predict a Labor win here at this stage.

Thanks Hawkeye for that confirmation. I agree that career politicians, particularly dynastic ones are repugnant. It seems that Schultz was still a pollie even while he was a copper, & RE agent.
The man’s statements lately have been wildly out there. eg saying he is ” “sorry” for Mundine, & Liberal Party conspiracies. What a space cadet/ lunatic

At least he was a true Liberal, and not a fake Liberal who is just a Labor person in Blue clothing, Mundine was ALP president, i wouldn’t trust

Adrian Jackson is correct that Liberals are better at running economy but when it is a coice between a party with a crowbar embedded in the brain and one with only a screw driver embedded both shoul be rejected. Adrian is probably right that both ALP and Libs appear to be centrist but this is only because both are so cowardly they will not tell us what they would like to do.
So far we just do not know why Mundine left ALP. Why did he jump ship? He certainly owes the electors of Gilmore an explanation. Will he support a nuclear power plant in his electorate?

Today,s Australian has Shorten
Supporting a reestablished Australian National Line and opposing any change to Australia Day.At the moment Shorten is way ahead of Morrison in polls. At moment I think I will be preferencing ALP ahead of LNP in House and splitting my referencing in Senate. I like Senate Candidate Rennick and Senator Ketter but dislike (or worse) most of rest of the Senate candidates.
It is time for true Centrists Parties (KAP, Country Party and DLP) to announce Senate candidates and get them working.
The Mundine decision and fall out from in-fighting within Gilmore liberal party branch will add another seat to ALP Government in next Parliament.
Andrew Jackson
apjackson2@bigpond.com

He prob left the ALP, because of the carbon tax? Just speculation

Daniel
Labels are something that appeal to Millennials. Who cares?. The substance of a man is not a label. Mundine has lived a life, & embodies values. He has stood for ideas, & displayed real concern for others. He has acted on those concerns & values. He has revealed more principle in the last hour than all the political reprobates you admire have in their entire lifetimes.
i suggest you adopt a “label free” perspective for greater clarity.

I don’t agree that the Coalition are inherently better economic managers, it depends on the specific government (and to be fair, market forces that are out of the government’s control). There have been both Labor and Coalition governments that I think were overall good economic managers, but the current government is not one of them.

It’ll be interesting to see how much support Grant Schultz manages to muster. This seat doesn’t really fit the profile of a typical Coalition or Labor seat, so a local independent probably has a decent shot at it.

if I were the Gilmore liberal party I would be upset to have a candidate imposed who only joined the party Yesterday. Mr Schultz of course has his faults….. as did Ann Sudmalis. Warren Mundine does have a history a bit like Mark Latham seemingly a politican searching for a party. Also he is not a local. It seems to me the liberal split will cost them the seat…. but this is an excercise in desperation aimed at saving a seat that was already lost. The jockey doesn’t matter if the horse is cactus….. alp gain

Wow, former NSW Nationals Minister, Katrina Hodgkinson is now running for Gilmore. This will shake things up.

The Liberal vote will tank now with Katrina now in the field. But it may prevent the seat falling to Labor.

No it will not, Stop saying that a Former Labor president that is a fake liberal candidate in blue clothing can win this, Look at the margin! Unless the coalition wins the election which is almost impossible, this will be Labor for 1 term

Warren Mundine,Liberal candidate has received $5,000,000 in government grants(source SMH 4/2/19)

no wonder he has close links to the PM

this seat looks like an easy Labor win

Phantom Bantam
I looked up SMH and your summary in 1 sentence of a 400 word plus article is a gross over simplification.
What the article state is that a company directs and partly owned by Mundine received $4.5 Million in non competitive selection process.

Let me start by saying as an ex government purchasing offficer that non competitive tenders should only occur in emergency situations.

Mundine’s company should only have been awarded the contact after an open tender situation.
The problem is lax public service admin not Mundines.

Government Procurement programmes require teeth with Public Servants who breach these standards suffering significant financial costs.
Problem is Procurement Policied are being ignored.

Re regulate government procurement and stop outsourcing TAFE functions to private industry. If Mundine wants to teach TAFE he should become a teacher.

Andrew Jackson

should never be

Likely Fiona Phillips gain

Watched “Politics in the pub ” on Monday . Mundine was a little inarticulate, but authentic, & genuine. Schulz was in hard sell RE mode. Hodgkinson was all class, if only she was running in E-M. McCallum was typically evangelical, righteous, preaching & painful. Phillips didn’t even bother turning up.

With Sudamalis gone the Coalition vote will strengthen. No one seems to be aware of a significant factor in her personal life that would have retarded the coalition vote. Not that it should. However this is not a progressive electorate by any stretch

Lib hold

Fiona Phillips didn’t turn up to the ‘Pub Test’ on Monday because she was at a community forum, which Mundine cancelled on. Phillips didn’t. Check your facts before listening to Sky News’ right wing propaganda.

Phillips chose the community, as she has always done. Mundine is a blow in, knows nothing of the area. Phillips was born here, and has lived here for more than 40 years – her entire life. Same can’t be said for the Nationals Candidate, Katrina Hodgkinson.

Not a progressive electorate by any stretch? Considering more people voted Labor and the Greens than Liberal at the last federal election in 2016 suggests this is a progressive electorate, or if not, that at least people want change.

We have been taken advantage of for way too long in Gilmore – a 0.7% margin suggests same.

Labor landslide.

This is one to watch because of Labor’s retiree tax.

I think Schultz’ preferences will be key (however he has stated he will run an open ticket).

Once he’s knocked out, you would assume the lion-share will flow to Mundine.

Once Hodgkinson is knocked out, assuming Phillips hasn’t got too high a primary vote, Mundine could limp across the line.

Fiona Phillips has been actively campaigning in the electorate for 4 years. The Lib and Nat are both blow ins.

Labor will win with Greens preferences.

Your an idiot to think A Fake Liberal (Former Labor president) can win this seat. Liberals wont vote for him as much, you basically have 2 labor candidates here, labor gain. Angry liberal voters will not back a labor president. And believe me, the independentw preferences wont change anything, since allot of people dont go by how to vote cards, expect a high number of spoiled ballots by conservatives here.

Putting aside the obvious fact that the removal of our only-country-in-the-world cash payment to people who get franking credits through shares in their SMSF and pay no tax isn’t remotely a ‘retirement tax’ (or any tax at all) – that Labor’s policy to end this subsidy very largely affects the wealthiest retirees will probably mean that a relatively low number of people in Gilmore, a relatively low income seat, will be affected.

The Grattan Inst. released a good read on this: https://grattan.edu.au/news/the-real-story-of-labors-dividend-imputation-reforms/

I reckon Labor gain unless the Lib misinformation campaign is particularly effective.

The franking credit policy may affect some votes but with such a small margin, no sitting member and the local branch upset at a State executive blow in candidate I would be shocked if Labor didn’t pick this up.