Petrie – Australia 2013

ALP 2.5%

Incumbent MP
Yvette D’Ath, since 2007.

Geography
Northern Brisbane. Petrie covers suburbs on the northern edge of the City of Brisbane, including Bracken Ridge and parts of Aspley. It also includes parts of Moreton Bay Regional Council, including Redcliffe, Scarborough and Deception Bay.

History
Petrie was created as part of the 1949 expansion of Parliament, and has always been a marginal seat, changing sides on many occasions. The seat has been a bellwether seat since 1987.

The seat was first won by Alan Hulme (Liberal) in 1949. Hulme served as a minister in the Menzies government from 1958 until 1961, when he was defeated by Reginald O’Brien (ALP), and Hulme won the seat back off O’Brien in 1963, before resuming a ministerial role.

O’Brien retired in 1972, and the seat was won by Marhsall Cooke. Cooke was not preselected by the Liberals in 1974, and he retired, with John Hodges winning the seat. Hodges held the seat for the Liberals until the 1983 election, when Dean Wells (ALP) won the seat. Hodges won it back off Wells in 1984, and Wells went on to serve as a minister in Labor state government from 1989 until 2004.

Hodges was finally defeated by the ALP’s Gary Johns in 1987. Johns went on to serve as a minister in the last term of the Keating government, losing his seat to Liberal Teresa Gambaro in 1996.

Gambaro held the seat for eleven years before losing to Yvette D’Ath in 2007.

D’Ath was re-elected in 2010 amidst a large anti-Labor swing in Queensland was a minimal 1.7% swing to the Liberal National Party.

Candidates

  • Elise Jennings (Rise Up Australia)
  • Thor Prohaska (Palmer United Party)
  • John Marshall (Greens)
  • Chris Thomson (Katter’s Australian Party)
  • Tasman Spence (Family First)
  • Luke Howarth (Liberal National)
  • Geoff Cornell (Citizens Electoral Council)
  • Yvette D’Ath (Labor)

Assessment
D’Ath managed to survive with a minor swing in 2010, but she faces a very tight race in 2013. If there is a significant swing to the LNP in Queensland she will struggle to survive.

2010 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Yvette D’AthALP32,67742.79-6.27
Dean TeasdaleLNP30,59040.06-2.76
Peter JeremijenkoGRN6,9499.10+4.68
Sally VincentFF3,8295.01+3.14
Gabriel BuckleyLDP1,6042.10+1.79
Lawrence AddisonDLP7150.94+0.94

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Yvette D’AthALP40,09752.51-1.70
Dean TeasdaleLNP36,26747.49+1.70
Polling booths in Petrie at the 2010 federal election. South in green, West in yellow, East in blue.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas. Booths in the City of Brisbane have been grouped as South.

Those around Redcliffe have been grouped as East, and the remainder around North Lakes and at the northern end of the electorate have been grouped as West.

The ALP won a majority in all areas, varying from 50.7% in the south to 54.2% in the west.

Voter groupGRN %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
East9.4853.1624,72732.38
South8.7950.6818,20623.84
West8.6054.1515,15319.84
Other votes9.3252.1018,27823.94
Two-party-preferred votes in Petrie at the 2010 federal election.

121 COMMENTS

  1. Improvement for Labor according to Sports Bet.

    This morning, Sports Bet odds in Petrie shows support for Labor tightens from $1.85 to $1.75 whilst support for the LNP slips from $1.85 to $1.95.

  2. Krudd for PM
    Its amazing what rubbish Labor will come out with that business has been around for 44 plus years, only the morons would believe your lies.

  3. Lucy, I’m just saying is all. I’m not a party hack, I just go and vote on election day and enjoy reading and contributing to forums, I don’t work for the party, I just support them and take an interest in politics and I know Luke Howarth and some of his friends…..I just think it’s important if someone is going to be a politician, people should know a bit about things they’ve done in their working life. My family was ripped off by him and he did a shonky job for someone else I know. A leopard doesn’t change its spots.

  4. I also apologise Lucy if I offended, if you’ve seen me post on any other p[ages you will notice I very rarely say negative things nor have I ever really got into an argument or been abusive, but if you had had known something to happen to you by a candidate and had heard things and they were Labor, I would certainly respect your right to voice it about that candidate on here.

  5. Rudd for PM??

    Do you have any basis for your claims against Mr Howarth’s family business or did you do a Google search and find out that he has made his own way and thought you might throw out some vexatious claims?

    Or… Do you have your own pest control business that uses a red car to go to jobs in?

  6. Rudd for PM
    You Quoted “His pest control company that he runs has had so many complaints they are seen as something of a joke. Shonky jobs, overcharging people, not fixing their mistakes etc. Do you really want someone like that representing an electorate?”

    Follow up with.. I know him and some of his mates, you believe that your family was overcharged and someone else you know had something happen…

    The first statement was very broad – you have yourself and possibly one other.. unless you are making it up.

  7. Interested voter, perhaps I was a bit broad, but I saw a poll that suggested he was gonna be elected and it just infuriated me. I am not making it up that it did happen to me personally, I swear and to see that poll just said to me “whatever happened to karma?”, but perhaps I went a bit overboard in my state of anger. I respect if you know him and only have good to say about him, there’s probably people that are my friends who I’ve got plenty of time for who have had run ins with other people in their lives and those people would think differently of them.

  8. Well if nothing goes horribly wrong for the coalition I am afraid Ms D’ath will lose her seat, The Kevin & Beattie show hasnt helped Labor’s cause in Queensland.

    Lilley Petrie Dickson & Longman will all be blue Sept 7th 2013

    It will give Labor a chance to clean out and work out a new message and new structure to take on the next election.

  9. Double setback for Yvette D’ath and Labor according to the betting sites.

    This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Petrie shows support for Labor drifts from $1.75 to $1.85 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.95 to $1.85. Currently, Centrebet odds in this electorate shows support for Labor eases from $1.65 to $1.80 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $2.15 to $1.95.

  10. Actually Yappo, those change in odds are significant as it shows one sit at a 50:50 split while the other is around 52:48. Very important.

  11. Coaltion are now favourites according to Sports Bet.

    This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Petrie shows support for Labor slips from $1.85 to $2.00 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.85 to $1.75. Currently, Centrebet odds in this electorate shows support for Labor drifts from $1.80 to $1.85 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.95 to $1.85.

  12. Momentum continues for the Coalition according to the betting sites.

    This morning, Sports Bet odds in Petrie shows support for Labor eases from $2.00 to $2.10 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.75 to $1.65. Currently, Centrebet odds in this electorate shows support for Labor slips from $1.85 to $2.05 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.85 to $1.68.

  13. Grassy, I admire you looking at the bright side but Labor’s loss is going to be of epic proportions, so they won’t be able to be an effective opposition, look at Qld State Labor. I’m affraid we will be old men before Labor gets back into power federally. The moment Abbott shows his true colours and starts annoying the electorate and losing popularity, they will bring in Turnbull.

  14. Bad news continues for Yvette D’ath and Labor according to the betting sites.

    This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Petrie shows support for Labor drifts from $2.10 to $2.30 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.65 to $1.57. Currently, Centrebet odds in this electorate shows support for Labor eases from $2.05 to $2.15 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.68 to $1.65.

  15. Another blow to Labor according to the betting sites.

    This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Petrie shows support for Labor slips from $2.30 to $2.40 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.57 to $1.53. Currently, Centrebet odds in this electorate shows support for Labor drifts from $2.15 to $2.90 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.65 to $1.35.

  16. Well at least Luke Howarth comes to see how things are going and is reachable, I’ve tried for years to get a hold of Yvette and nothing I’ve sent her emails and nothing. Under her all the small good paying business have left the area. Only shops left are liquor stores and a Woolworths. I run a small business and ever since Yvette held the area I laid off 12 staff and had to deal with ever decreasing low margins and twice the power costs. I voice my concerns to Yvette’s office and kindly ask for a return phone call, and nothing. I have even asked her to come see the community and see all the empty parking lots and discuss the now 10% unemployment rate in the area under her watch. We asked for her help and there was none. Glad she is gone. She is the worst MP I have ever had to deal with. I sent Luke an email and he was in town the following week, he wanted to hear about my concerns and wanted to know what he could do to help and what message he could take to Canberra. He spent the afternoon in the area going around to small business and asking what he could do to help. Never a thing from Yvette NOT EVEN A WHISPER!

Comments are closed.