Perth – Australia 2013

ALP 5.9%

Incumbent MP
Stephen Smith, since 1993.

Geography
Central and northeastern Perth. The seat covers the Perth CBD, which is in the southwestern corner of the seat. Perth runs along the northern shore of the Swan river, to the east of the Perth CBD. Other suburbs include Maylands, Mount Lawley, Bayswater, Ashfield, Bedford, Morley and Beechboro.

History
Perth is an original federation seat. It was dominated by conservative parties until the 1940s, and became a marginal seat until the early 1980s. It has been held by the ALP ever since 1983, and has been relatively safe for most of the time since the 1980s.

Perth was first won in 1901 by the ALP’s James Fowler. Fowler was a fierce opponent of Billy Hughes within the party, and he switched to the new Liberal Party in 1909. He joined the new Nationalist Party in 1916, but his conflict with Hughes made this difficult. He lost Nationalist endorsement before the 1922 election, and lost Perth.

Nationalist candidate Edward Mann won Perth in 1922. He was re-elected in 1925 and 1928, but in 1929 was one of a number of Nationalist MPs led by Billy Hughes to rebel against the Bruce government and lead to the government’s downfall. Mann lost Perth as an independent in 1929.

Perth was won in 1929 by Nationalist candidate Walter Nairn. Nairn became a United Australia Party member in 1931, and held the seat for the next decade. He served as Speaker from 1940 to 1943, and retired at the 1943 election.

The ALP’s Tom Burke won Perth in 1943. He held the seat for the next twelve years, until 1955, when he lost Perth to the Liberal Party’s Fred Chaney. Burke was expelled from the ALP in 1957, although he later rejoined the party. His sons Terry Burke and Brian Burke were both later elected to the Western Australian state parliament, and Brian went on to become Premier.

Chaney held Perth for the next fourteen years. He served in Robert Menzies’ ministry from 1964 to 1966, but was dropped from the frontbench when Harold Holt became Prime Minister in 1966. He lost Perth in 1969. He went on to serve as Administrator of the Northern Territory and Lord Mayor of Perth.

Perth was won in 1969 by the ALP’s Joe Berinson. He was re-elected in 1972 and 1974, and in July 1975 was appointed Minister for the Environment in the Whitlam government. He lost his seat at the 1975 election. He went on to serve in the Western Australian state parliament and as a minister in a number of state Labor governments.

The Liberal Party’s Ross McLean won Perth in 1975, and held the seat as a backbencher for the entirety of the Fraser government, losing the seat in 1983.

Perth was won in 1983 by the ALP’s Ric Charlesworth. Charlesworth had been caption of the Australian men’s field hockey team, and represented Australia at five Olympics in the 1970s and 1980s. He captained the team at two Olympics while he held the seat of Perth. Charlesworth also played Sheffield Shield cricket for Western Australia in the 1970s.

Charlesworth held Perth for ten years, retiring in 1993 at the age of 41. He was replaced by Stephen Smith, former Keating advisor and State Secretary of the ALP in WA.

Smith was promoted to the Labor frontbench after the 1996 election, and served as a shadow minister in a variety of portfolios until 2007. Smith served as Foreign Minister in the first term of the current Labor government, and as Defence Minister since the 2010 election.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Stephen Smith is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Perth has traditionally been a solid Labor seat, but in current circumstances no seat is safe for Labor in Western Australia.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Stephen Smith ALP 32,228 40.19 -6.12
Joe Ferrante LIB 31,064 38.74 +1.84
Jonathan Hallett GRN 12,948 16.15 +5.82
Paul Connelly CDP 2,093 2.61 +0.62
Nigel Irvine FF 1,243 1.55 +0.45
Alex Bainbridge SA 618 0.77 +0.22

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Stephen Smith ALP 44,815 55.88 -2.06
Joe Ferrante LIB 35,379 44.12 +2.06
Polling places in Perth at the 2010 federal election. Bayswater in blue, East in red, Stirlign in green, South-West in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Perth at the 2010 federal election. Bayswater in blue, East in red, Stirlign in green, South-West in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas. Polling places in Bayswater and Stirling council areas have been grouped together. Polling places in Bassendean and Swan councils have been merged as “East” and polling places in Perth and Vincent councils have been merged as “South-West”.

Bayswater is substantially larger, with 30% of votes cast in 2010, compared to 11.7% in South-West.

The ALP won a majority in all four areas, varying from 53.1% in Stirling to 62.4% in the east. The Greens vote varied from 20.8% in the south-west to 14% in Bayswater.

Voter group GRN % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Bayswater 14.09 54.85 24,355 30.37
East 14.78 62.36 15,425 19.23
Stirling 15.80 53.14 14,239 17.76
South-West 20.80 57.30 9,347 11.66
Other votes 18.08 52.98 16,828 20.98
Two-party-preferred votes in Perth at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Perth at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Perth at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Perth at the 2010 federal election.

101 COMMENTS

  1. Before I vote I would like to know how much propaganda money is being diverted from union member money to fund her campaign – what’s wrong with that mate? I have friends who are in unions and what to know how much of their membership money is allocated to the cronies selected.

  2. Ben mate – you can’t start a political website and then get sensitive about the comments when they are made in the spirit of openness and transparency

  3. If your friends who are in Unions have legitimate questions about the steps their union may have taken to protect their holidays, penalty rates, wages and job security then they should direct their questions to their workplace delegate or organiser. I’m not entirely sure what good they think will come of having you question people on a political polling blog site.

    I think it’s best we end this discussion as Ben suggested. If you have serious concerns contact UnionsWA, I’m sure they will be able to tell you about their members political spending.

  4. Moving back to the Division of Perth, I think this will be a safe hold for Labor. Alannah’s personal vote is on par and perhaps even greater than Smith’s. A swing towards Labor of 2-3% is likely and should see Alannah safely through to Canberra.

  5. Gabriel Harfouche Palmer United Party is the man that can resurrect Perth from the shameful mismanagement of millions that has cost the Perth people hospital bed, decent road infrastructure, improved schooling and jobs that should have resulted from the mining wealth that belongs to them!

  6. @Xerxes, I bloody well can start a political website and then get shitty when people hijack an electorate thread to argue about the role of union donations in our political system without any real specific reference to Perth.

    You have another place where you can comment on the federal election more generally. Please continue your discussion about union donations there.

    I’m also happy to block you if you insist on continuing this discussion here.

    You might also want to have a read of this website’s comments policy.

  7. Unions are important – I support union membership – people are entitled to join a union and have decent union leadership so I want to know how much of WA unions money is being allocated to fund Alannah’s campaign – Do you think UnionsWA will tell me?

  8. There is no breach of your comments policy so no need to get shitty or are you being funded by the unions too

  9. Point three of the policy:

    Please stay on topic. I understand that conversations may meander and take different directions and unless necessary I will leave comments alone if they are only mildly off-topic. Electorate profile comment threads should stay focused on the electorate, the campaign and candidates for that electorate, and issues that affect that electorate. Try to place general discussions about the state or national campaign in a general election-related thread.

  10. I think the PUPpies will be lucky to get more than a few sympathy votes. I will be impressed if they can poll over 1000 votes.

    Safe win for Labor.

  11. xerxes, if you have friends in the Division of Perth who are members of unions that honestly want to know why and by how much they may be supporting Alannah MacTiernan, why not ask them to ask their union leaders directly? And if you do, feel free to then report the responses back here, we’d be happy to hear.

    In the meantime, if you have no specific evidence of unions “bankrolling” Ms MacTiernan’s campaign without the knowledge and consent of their membership, please stop insinuating otherwise.

  12. xerxes – Smith has been the Perth MP for more than 20 years. Alannah MacTiernan got more than 55% of the vote in Armadale in both 2005 and 2008, and she got nearly 63% of the vote when running for Mayor of Vincent. Ms MacTiernan is by no means a weak candidate.

  13. Alannah deserve credit for her work and service to the public but alas she appears worn out and tired of having to prove herself at her age to a party that turns on its own at the drop of a hat and she is associated with a brand that the population of perth appears to be keen to retire form the political landscape

  14. Now Gabe Harfouche for the Palmer United Party is someone with tenacity, intelligence and credibility I think the two party preferred may affect how he polls but he should poll well

  15. LOL! good one! You do realise that most politicains in WA are past retirement age, its how its always been. I don’t think Alanna is worn out, why would she run if she was? she has a nice job as local mayor already. The suggestion that perth is tired of Labor is absurd. Yes at the state election perth swung against labor but Barnett had quality candidates and a track record in the area. Plus your comments contradict the poll results I put up which suggest they welcome Allanah and the ALP. And to suggest that PUP will be a key candidate in this seat is absolutely crazy, next you will be telling me they will win the electorate of Grayndler

  16. If your candidate for canning last election was so well liked by the Perth community why didn’t she win. You quoting statistics is irrelevant to the outcome of the last election in Canning where she did not win and where the bloke in Perth had a swing against him. She has no chance this timie nor does any Labor candidate in WA – the Perth people have had a gut full

  17. wow this site is bait for crazies. Firstly I would point out that this was really the first time WA voters voiced their opinion on the mining tax, she was the only candidate for the ALP to get a swing towards her, she was asked to run by Rudd not Gillard which made it difficult, she won the area she represented in the state parliament. And trust me the local council elections speak for themselves in determing whether she is liked. A poll is not an indicator and if you wanna ignore a blatant fact that perth is Alanah’s then go right ahead but atleast be reasonable, and saying that the west is sick of the ALP is absurd as credible polling has us leading in all 3 seats and looking competitive in Swan and Hasluck. If you wanna ignore blatant facts, your in for disappointment on the 7th september

  18. As someone who has actually been involved in Alannah’s campaign, I can tell you with great confidence that she has the absolute support of her community. She carries a sizeable personal vote based on her previous achievements – but is rapidly gaining community support based on two grass roots campaigns she is running. That is opposing the splitting of the Town of Vincent and opposing the development of a juvenile detention centre at Lockridge High.

    xerxes – you can’t just quote the Daily Telegraph and randomly declare the voting intentions of the entire nation/state. Perth is a safe Labor seat and should get a 2-3% towards Alannah.

  19. She is a tainted by her role in the Alan Carpenter government and the dreamers and believers should have chosen the young lawyer instead

  20. so if shes tainted why was she the only ALP candidate in the state to get a swing towards her in 2010, and why does polling have her ahead by 62/38

  21. I wonder if the Perth to Mandurah rail budget can truly be reconciled – I wonder who was the Planning Minister at the time that blew that. Also who was the Planning Minister in the Carpenter government that restricted property rezoning – oh she is really well liked coz she is opposing a amalgamations – I am sure if you ask the other 4 candidates they too might be opposing them too…the party spin doctors are out in force. Oh and by the way do union members in Perth know that the union bosses are funding her campaign and were they asked if there dues could be used for that?

  22. Local stuff: the Perth Voice (our little local paper) usually has a small ad for the Libs on the front page (East Metro MLC Donna Faragher for a while, Eleni Evangel before the state election and Darryl Moore since then have had a permanent spot in the top corner, opposite the one for Stones Pizza). This week’s edition has no Lib ad in that corner for the first time in ages. Maybe the Voice is playing pick-and-choose with what ads they run (they’ve devoted four pages to the outrage over the abolishing of Vincent council, including a front-page editorial which skates pretty close to breaking Godwin’s Law) maybe the tories forgot to pay their bills or maybe they no longer see Perth as winnable. It’s a small thing but it interested me.

    Local govt in WA is non-partisan, but you can still find a swing between council elections like so: in both 2007 and 2011, Sally Lake ran for mayor of Vincent. In both years, her only opponent was a former state Labor MP. In 2007, she came very close to beating Nick Catania (the incumbent mayor, who got 51.6%), but in 2011 (when Catania retired) she was thumped by MacTiernan (62.8%). That’s basically an 11.2% swing to Labor despite their incumbent retiring – certainly notable.

  23. Xerxes, you seem to have a particular bone to pick with Alannah MacTiernan for some reason (do you even realise we had a Labor premier before Carpenter?). I had planned on putting the CDP last as usual, but your behaviour on here is making want to put Palmer’s candidate last instead.

    The Mandurah line was somewhat late and over-budget, but it got built in the end and now works well (in contrast to the Paramatta-Chatswood line in Sydney, for example). The same will hopefully be true of Fiona Stanley Hospital, under the Liberals. Massive projects like that are always hard to run according to plan. That was definitely a winner… how many more cars would be on the Kwinana Freeway every day otherwise?

    As for my union dues, I would be extremely happy if my union (the SDA) were using the dues I pay them to support MacTiernan, instead of their man Joe Bullock in the senate. Unions supporting Labor campaigns is an obvious non-issue.

  24. And lastly: Balmain, I’ve never been a wearer of promotional T-shirts, but I do have a blank front wall on a busy street in Northbridge that could totally use an Alannah corflute. I don’t think my flatmate would mind either. Hook me up. 🙂

  25. Labor and Liberal have not served the people of Perth and its time to vote in a new party and give a new team a chance to reunite the nation -Gab Harfouche for Perth – he won’t mess around

  26. It would be breaking the rules of the comment section to post a link to Alannah’s campaign – but for those (bird of paradox and observer) who want campaign material from Alannah, just shoot me an email and I will hook you guys up.

    balmain15@gmail.com

  27. A protest rally against Vincent Council being split between Perth and Stirling got 1200 people out in North Perth this arvo (via Facebook, not sure if there’s a proper news link yet). This is a big deal.

  28. Yeah, there’s been less advertising round my part of the world than there was a month out from the state election. There’s a few Darryl Moore posters in shop windows, and I’ve gotten two pieces of generic Lib junk mail (one was still banging on about OMG WTF pink batts!!1!, the other was the usual postal vote-plus-advercrap envelope), but that’s it.

    Also (more WA generally), any federal stuff would’ve been drowned out for the last few days by the state budget. There’s a lot of anger about that, too (even in the West, a generally Lib-leaning paper) – funding cuts here, extra charges there, and the typical tory cutting of public service jobs. Barnett’s definitely not helping his eastern mates’ chances of holding Hasluck or Swan.

  29. The Lib window for this seat has well and truly closed. The return of Rudd, MacTiernan’s candidacy, the amalgamations and recent state budget have made this a safe hold for Labor.

  30. Heard yesterday from a Lib at uni that the Libs have given up campaigning here, Alannah too strong. Not sure how accurate that report is though.

  31. Might not be too accurate. I’ve now got a third piece of crapmail from the Libs (OMG! Boats! Carbon tax!). I’ve recieved nothing whatsoever from any other party, so it’s just official-looking envelopes from a PO box in Bassendean.

    Meanwhile, the Voice has really hit election mode. The front page has an ugly yellow ad with an ugly photo of MacTiernan and the melted-plastic “Labor’s a mess” logo they used in the state election, with basic Lib slogans (tax! boats! boats!). It ain’t credited to any party, so you have to know what “authorised by B.Morton” in tiny print means. (It actually looks like something you’d see in Prosh, that’s how low-quality it is.) Page 3 has a proper ad that size for the Greens (Scott Ludlam, although not Jonathan Hallett), and Alannah has a whole page 5 of her own, focusing on public transport (an undeniable strength of hers).

    As for the actual content: the front page is all about Mt Hawthorn primary (with a photo op for Mark McGowan), and how it’s been shafted by the state budget to the tune of half a million dollars. (The Lib govt here is very seriously talking about closing schools in its latest budget – hello PM Abbott.) Secondary article is the City of Stirling taking its turn to be angry about the council mergers – this has made nobody happy.

  32. Where would you have run her?

    My gut feel is that Perth would likely fall without a candidate as good as MacTiernan.

  33. I got Labor’s HTV leaflet through my letterbox today. Not that it’ll ever matter, but it’s in a strange order. 1 ALP – 2 Grn – 3 Rise Up – 4 FF – 5 PUP – 6 Lib – 7 AC – 8 Ant Clark. On ballot paper order, that’s 7-8-1-2-3-4-5-6 from top to bottom, which I guess is why they’ve done it, but the Rise Up loons don’t deserve to be anywhere but last.

    Meanwhile, Ant Clark will probably get my #1 vote… he seems pretty reasonable. Here’s a Voice article from July on him.

    http://perthvoiceinteractive.com/2013/07/12/clark-may-have-preference-sway/

  34. Another day, another shameful liberal candidate caught out

    More drama in the Lib campaign with ugly revelations that their candidate for Perth Darryl Moore called tenants “illiterate animals” and boasted about evicting them using his “forklift and truck” method.
    Reports in today’s Australian and an online blog exposed Moore – using the name “Dazzling” – for making a range of horrendous comments on an online forum.
    These included:
    Suggestions women needed to be stood over and intimidated in negotiations
    Claiming it is advisable to avoid paying tax in Australia
    Admitting he set up a tax haven in the West Indies
    Bragging of breaking the law to boot out tenants
    Labor is calling for Moore to be dumped but Abbott is standing by his candidate. Guess when its a marginal seat, Abbott has double standards

  35. Observer
    i’ll take your word for all this. Don’t you just ask yourself :Where do they find these blokes???? Thank god Alannah will thump this d…head.

  36. Well, no swing to Labor, but she’s in. Considering Abbott won over all, it’s actually been a good day to be me. Alannah MacTiernan and Scott Ludlam are both back in the game, and most importantly, the Dockers won. I voted for the Highgate P&C, who ran on a platform of bacon and egg rolls and cupcakes, and voted above the line in the senate for the first time ever. (Numbering 62 boxes would’ve made me late for work.)

    Who the bloody hell are the Sports Party? ABC’s computer reckons they’ve got a seat at the expense of Labor from an unbelievable 0.22% of the vote, from 21st place. That’s gonna want a recount. I’ve heard of election night hangovers, but this one’s gonna be like the morning after the last time I drank home-made absinthe. Also, Scott Ludlam seems to be home and hosed thanks to his new best mate Clive Palmer.

    Aaaand now I’m off to continue what seems to be a tradition for me… at every federal election since Mark Latham lost, I’ve gone to a party and gotten blotto somewhere in this party-filled electorate I call home. Seeya on the flipside. 🙂

  37. This seat might still be marginal after this election, but given what I’ve heard about Alannah MacTiernan over the last few years …

    Alannah MacTiernan is a future ALP Leader.

  38. Future ALP leader? She is a bit old for that esp when the ALP is looking for generational change. You are sounding like the Diaz family member who has been posting on here calling him “future leadership material”….

  39. I know that she has experience at the State level but given virtually no Ministers lost seats and that the two areas you mention have been very well served by Albo then ……
    WA does need some rep beyond Gray though if the ALP wants to get beyond 3.

  40. I thought MacTiernan had the courage to stand up to boffins raising objections to the Perth-Mandurah railway, both inside and outside her own party. And the Liberals were hell-bent on stopping it. When it was finally opened, she said, “I feel I did something right.”
    One News reporter said MacTiernan had a reputation for getting things done. And wasn’t she a popularly-elected local mayor after her failed run against Randall in Canning, where she had a decent swing her way but ultimately fell short?
    You can’t say any of these things about other other ALP MPs – at least for now.

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