KAP 14.8% vs LNP
Incumbent MP
Nick Dametto, since 2017.
Geography
North Queensland. Covers the Queensland coastline north of Townsville. The seat covers southern parts of Cassoway Coast council area, all of Hinchinbrook, and northern parts of Townsville LGA. The seat covers Ingham, Cardwell, Alice River, and some of the northern beaches of Townsville.
History
The seat of Hinchinbrook was first created in 1950, and had been held by the Country/National/Liberal National Party from 1960 until 2017.
Marc Rowell won the seat for the National Party in 1989. He briefly served as a minister in the final months of the Borbidge coalition government in 1998.
Rowell retired in 2006, and was succeeded by Andrew Cripps. Cripps was re-elected in 2009, 2012 and 2015.
Cripps was defeated in 2017 by Katter’s Australian Party’s Nick Dametto, who came third with less than 21% of the primary vote, but won thanks to Labor and One Nation preferences. Dametto won re-election in 2020 with a doubling of his primary vote.
- Ina Pryor (Labor)
- Annette Swaine (Liberal National)
- Ric Daubert (One Nation)
- Nick Dametto (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Jon Kowski (Greens)
- Kevin Wheatley (Legalise Cannabis)
Assessment
Dametto is in quite a strong position now, with the leading primary vote in 2020.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Nick Dametto | Katter’s Australian Party | 12,522 | 42.5 | +21.6 |
| Scott Piper | Liberal National | 7,342 | 24.9 | -5.2 |
| Paul Jacob | Labor | 5,723 | 19.4 | +0.4 |
| Michael Sullivan | One Nation | 2,097 | 7.1 | -14.9 |
| Carolyn Mewing | Greens | 1,010 | 3.4 | +0.2 |
| Aurelio Mason | United Australia | 393 | 1.3 | +1.3 |
| Jen Sackley | Independent | 351 | 1.2 | +1.2 |
| Informal | 1,053 | 3.5 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Nick Dametto | Katter’s Australian Party | 19,064 | 64.8 | +7.2 |
| Scott Piper | Liberal National | 10,374 | 35.2 | -7.2 |
Booths in Hinchinbrook have been divided into three areas: central, north and south. Each area aligns with one of the three local government areas in the seat. A majority of ordinary votes were cast in the south.
Katter’s Australian Party won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in all three areas, with 62.6% in the north and south and 76.3% in the centre.
| Voter group | ALP prim % | KAP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 22.5 | 62.6 | 7,273 | 24.7 |
| Central | 11.0 | 76.3 | 2,045 | 6.9 |
| North | 17.9 | 62.6 | 984 | 3.3 |
| Pre-poll | 17.9 | 66.2 | 12,226 | 41.5 |
| Other votes | 21.6 | 61.4 | 6,910 | 23.5 |
Election results in Hinchinbrook at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Katter’s Australian Party and the Liberal National Party) and primary votes for Katter’s Australian Party, the Liberal National Party and Labor.
Dametto, like his friends in Tragear and Hill, should be fairly rusted onto this seat by now.
On a different topic, I wonder if this seat (and Cook and Whitsunday, to name but two others) will be a candidate for a rename in years to come, given it shares its name with a local council.
given there is a ferry link to Palm Island from Lucinda i dont see why it cant be put into Hinchinbrook
This seat surprised me by being lost in 2017 but even more so in 2020 with the terribly low primary for the LNP (just 25%). They actually had a really good, hardworking candidate in 2020 who seemed to be resonating. Shows how entrenched the KAP is in North Queensland, once they win these seats off the LNP.
I suspect Dametto will win on primary votes this year.
KAP will easily retain, likely with an increased margin.
There’s a possibility that One Nation will rerun and both ON and LNP will recover their lost primary votes from their low base of 2020. There’s currently momentum behind the LNP statewide. This would deny Dametto a primary vote majority.
Can the LNP win this back?
No
@John why not?
The same reason Labor won’t win any green seats
@Nether Portal Nick Dametto is an extremely popular local MP (look at the swing to him last election) and the LNP have no candidate less than 100 days out from the election.
Minor parties or independents are hard to unseat by major parties unless the6y screw up.
The conventional wisdom seems to that the alp govt will lose possibly in a landslide almost as bad as 2012. But alp has a chance in Maryborough.. an ind in Mirani a independent in Rockhampton . . Ind in Noosa? May be there may be a Hung parliament.. all the Katters will be reelected 2 greens will possibly be reelected … if people are voting against Labor they may not vote for the Lnp…. but other party candidates esp with a very fractured vote
@ mick virtually no chance of a hung parliament Labor will get thumped. To get minority the libs would need to win fewer then 12 seats they’ll get at least twice that according to the polls it won’t be as bad as 2012
@Mick I highly doubt Labor will win Maryborough. The only reason they hold it with a 13% margin is because Bruce Saunders is a popular MP. But even popular MPs in most seats won’t be able to withstand the swing.
Brace yourselves, a blue wave is coming! Queensland and the NT’s Labor governments are likely to lose office this year, and in Queensland it will be a thumping as John said, while the NT won’t be as catastrophic but Eva Lawler is in serious danger of losing her seat.
If one of the 3 Katter seats (I don’t count turncoat Mirani) was to fall [Traegar, Hill or Hinchinbrook], It would be this one, I am saying if the Katters was to lose one of their 3 seats in this region, it would be this one.
They won’t lose any of their 3 seats. Katter and his father are well liked in these areas and won’t be losing their seats until they do something to alienate voters
KAP hold but swing to LNP simply because of the collapse in the Labor vote.
Hinchinbrook MP Nick Dametto will quit his state seat in parliament and will run for Townsville mayor. Wow. Does anyone think former LNP MP Andrew Cripps will put his hand up for the LNP in the bye-election? Last time I checked, he was a councillor. I’m surprised Dametto is going ahead with this. I’m wondering if he’s frustrated with the limitations of being a state MP crossbencher with no power. Former Police officer Annette Swaine was LNP’s candidate at the last state election.
still it will be a KAP retain cant see the LNP overcoming a 13% gap. althought i doubt labor will contest the by election as they wont bother wasting the resources. so if he fails to win the townsville mayoral race would there be enough time to recontest Hinchinbrook?
with Labor out of the race it may help the lnp somewhat without labor directing preferences
Labor ran in Callide in 2022.
still it will be a KAP retain cant see the LNP overcoming a 13% gap. althought i doubt labor will contest the by election as they wont bother wasting the resources. so if he fails to win the townsville mayoral race would there be enough time to recontest Hinchinbrook?
@John
The answer to this from Nick Dametto, comments in the media, is out of the question, re-contesting the Hinchenbrook bye-election if he loses the mayoral contest. I’m leaning towards Labor not contesting Hinchenbrook bye-election after they took a whack in the regions’ last state election. And would prefer to avoid a bad result in an unwinnable seat.
“Mr Dametto admitted there was “no fall back” for him if he was not elected mayor, but remained adamant he was making the right decision.”
https://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/news/townsville/townsville-mayor-race-heats-up-as-suspended-thompson-plans-comeback/news-story/5bd73a7239aab5287b9fe1c1dae096cb
As a Townsvillite, without Dametto, I think the seat is genuinely up for grabs.
He has a massive personal vote and most of the seats electors live in the Northern Suburbs of Townsville, which at the federal level is solidly LNP, not KAP.
@John @Political Nightwatchman
normally it’s the Incumbent government that doesn’t contest vacant seats not held by them in fear of a huge swing against them