Perth – Australia 2013

ALP 5.9%

Incumbent MP
Stephen Smith, since 1993.

Geography
Central and northeastern Perth. The seat covers the Perth CBD, which is in the southwestern corner of the seat. Perth runs along the northern shore of the Swan river, to the east of the Perth CBD. Other suburbs include Maylands, Mount Lawley, Bayswater, Ashfield, Bedford, Morley and Beechboro.

History
Perth is an original federation seat. It was dominated by conservative parties until the 1940s, and became a marginal seat until the early 1980s. It has been held by the ALP ever since 1983, and has been relatively safe for most of the time since the 1980s.

Perth was first won in 1901 by the ALP’s James Fowler. Fowler was a fierce opponent of Billy Hughes within the party, and he switched to the new Liberal Party in 1909. He joined the new Nationalist Party in 1916, but his conflict with Hughes made this difficult. He lost Nationalist endorsement before the 1922 election, and lost Perth.

Nationalist candidate Edward Mann won Perth in 1922. He was re-elected in 1925 and 1928, but in 1929 was one of a number of Nationalist MPs led by Billy Hughes to rebel against the Bruce government and lead to the government’s downfall. Mann lost Perth as an independent in 1929.

Perth was won in 1929 by Nationalist candidate Walter Nairn. Nairn became a United Australia Party member in 1931, and held the seat for the next decade. He served as Speaker from 1940 to 1943, and retired at the 1943 election.

The ALP’s Tom Burke won Perth in 1943. He held the seat for the next twelve years, until 1955, when he lost Perth to the Liberal Party’s Fred Chaney. Burke was expelled from the ALP in 1957, although he later rejoined the party. His sons Terry Burke and Brian Burke were both later elected to the Western Australian state parliament, and Brian went on to become Premier.

Chaney held Perth for the next fourteen years. He served in Robert Menzies’ ministry from 1964 to 1966, but was dropped from the frontbench when Harold Holt became Prime Minister in 1966. He lost Perth in 1969. He went on to serve as Administrator of the Northern Territory and Lord Mayor of Perth.

Perth was won in 1969 by the ALP’s Joe Berinson. He was re-elected in 1972 and 1974, and in July 1975 was appointed Minister for the Environment in the Whitlam government. He lost his seat at the 1975 election. He went on to serve in the Western Australian state parliament and as a minister in a number of state Labor governments.

The Liberal Party’s Ross McLean won Perth in 1975, and held the seat as a backbencher for the entirety of the Fraser government, losing the seat in 1983.

Perth was won in 1983 by the ALP’s Ric Charlesworth. Charlesworth had been caption of the Australian men’s field hockey team, and represented Australia at five Olympics in the 1970s and 1980s. He captained the team at two Olympics while he held the seat of Perth. Charlesworth also played Sheffield Shield cricket for Western Australia in the 1970s.

Charlesworth held Perth for ten years, retiring in 1993 at the age of 41. He was replaced by Stephen Smith, former Keating advisor and State Secretary of the ALP in WA.

Smith was promoted to the Labor frontbench after the 1996 election, and served as a shadow minister in a variety of portfolios until 2007. Smith served as Foreign Minister in the first term of the current Labor government, and as Defence Minister since the 2010 election.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Stephen Smith is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Perth has traditionally been a solid Labor seat, but in current circumstances no seat is safe for Labor in Western Australia.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Stephen Smith ALP 32,228 40.19 -6.12
Joe Ferrante LIB 31,064 38.74 +1.84
Jonathan Hallett GRN 12,948 16.15 +5.82
Paul Connelly CDP 2,093 2.61 +0.62
Nigel Irvine FF 1,243 1.55 +0.45
Alex Bainbridge SA 618 0.77 +0.22

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Stephen Smith ALP 44,815 55.88 -2.06
Joe Ferrante LIB 35,379 44.12 +2.06
Polling places in Perth at the 2010 federal election. Bayswater in blue, East in red, Stirlign in green, South-West in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Perth at the 2010 federal election. Bayswater in blue, East in red, Stirlign in green, South-West in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas. Polling places in Bayswater and Stirling council areas have been grouped together. Polling places in Bassendean and Swan councils have been merged as “East” and polling places in Perth and Vincent councils have been merged as “South-West”.

Bayswater is substantially larger, with 30% of votes cast in 2010, compared to 11.7% in South-West.

The ALP won a majority in all four areas, varying from 53.1% in Stirling to 62.4% in the east. The Greens vote varied from 20.8% in the south-west to 14% in Bayswater.

Voter group GRN % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Bayswater 14.09 54.85 24,355 30.37
East 14.78 62.36 15,425 19.23
Stirling 15.80 53.14 14,239 17.76
South-West 20.80 57.30 9,347 11.66
Other votes 18.08 52.98 16,828 20.98
Two-party-preferred votes in Perth at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Perth at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Perth at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Perth at the 2010 federal election.

101 COMMENTS

  1. Stephen Smith it would be sad to see him go, he is level headed and delivers his message with ease and people listen.

    I think It will depend on his on-the-ground team and how he can distance himself from “toxic” Labor and if the elctorate will tar him with the same brush.

    Sundays GONSKI announcement didnt help his cause with less funding being announced for WA.

  3. Darryl Moore is the Liberal candidate here. I presume Stephen Smith will just hold on by the skin of his teeth.

  4. If Smith loses this seat, it’ll be in Liberal hands for the first time since Bob Hawke became PM in 1983.

  5. I hope Perth doesn’t turn blue, I live here. It might though. On state figures (state seats of Perth, Maylands and Bassendean, plus half of Mt Lawley and Morley), it’d probably be marginal Liberal. Perth and Mt Lawley got the biggest swings towards the Libs, with Perth now Liberal-held for the first time since the 60’s. If John Hyde was right about that being caused by Labor running an anti-inner-city campaign, then those bits wouldn’t swing so hard this time (the foreshore redevelopment isn’t a federal issue). Meanwhile, the suburban parts are generally stronger for Labor (although Morley is still a Lib seat). It’ll be close, but I think Labor can hold on. It’ll be about as dicey as Brand, although for different reasons.

    Also, the Greens might lose a decent chunk of their vote. That wouldn’t help Smith.

  6. I think the Liberals will gain this: not only did they perform strongly here in the state election (as mentioned for example gaining the state electorate of Perth itself on a huge swing) but also a large proportion of state Labor voters indicated that they would not vote Labor at the federal election.

  7. How did they indicate that? Did they appear to you in dreams? Did they flutter down from rainbows and whisper an answer into your ear?

  8. Alannah MacTiernan herself testified that a large number of state Labor voters indicated to her that they would not cast their vote for Labor in the Federal election, even though they support Labor in the state election.
    Not only that, but the exit poll conducted on the day of the State Election in March highlighted that only 7/10 of state Labor voters would vote Labor in the federal election.
    I can detect that the impending doom facing your party is exceptionally frustrating for you, however, the use of sarcasm as you have done above only highlights that you are misinformed on this issue.

  9. So, now Smith is leaving too! What do you guys think of the Liberal’s chances here now, taking into account both KRudd’s return and Smith’s departure?

  10. Depends on if they can find a good candidate. I don’t want to get ahead of myself, but WA Labor has been trying to woo Smith to run for Premier for a long time.

  11. Alanah Mactiernan mentioned as a candidate here, stephen smith confirms he will be the campaign director for perth

  13. Someone better start begging MacTiernan (to stand).With any other candidate they stand to lose. The libs achieved only a 1.8% swing in 2010. Smiths situation was buttressed by a Greens vote of +5%. Looks very fragile to me.

  14. MacTiernan would be an excellent choice. She seems happy enough as my local mayor, but I bet there’s plenty of people better-connected than me trying to convince her to get back in the game. Between Armadale (WA 2008) and Canning (fed 2010), obviously people like her even in circumstances when Labor in general wouldn’t get their vote. Next week’s Perth Voice oughta be an interesting read. They’re a tiny little local paper, but they try to keep on top of Vincent / Bayswater council shenanigans.

    I don’t get the idea of Stephen Smith as WA Labor leader. He’s been in politics since 1993, longer than McGowan (and much longer than Ben Wyatt, who’s probably the other contender) and not much less than Barnett. The next election isn’t until 2017, and if he was to serve a full term as premier (assuming Labor win), that would take him to 2021 – almost thirty years in the game. Considering he’s just said 20 years is enough and 23 is too much, it doesn’t sound plausible.

    Plus, Smith doesn’t really have any state seats available to him. WA isn’t like NSW or Vic – there aren’t a pile of seats with permanent 20%+ Labor margins ready and waiting for bored ex-federal pollies to drop into. There aren’t too many seats you could finagle a safely winnable by-election in, and most of them are held by people who could reasonably expect to be part of the next Labor govt.

    Other weird fact: by-elections in opposition seats aren’t all that common. Apart from the usual way senior ministers leave after their govt gets beaten, and one death (Murdoch, 2006), the last one was in 1990. The winner? Colin Barnett. He was a lot younger then, though.

  15. B of P
    Didn’t realise Mc Tiernan was employed. That won’t be good for the cause. The reason people like her is that she can think for herself, & says what she thinks. Shame those points are lost on most pollies

  16. Sounds like MacTiernan is running. Good for the ALP, it’s certainly not as safe as it is on paper this seat.

  17. Morgieb
    MacTiernan seems to bring 3% to the table if she replicates her 2010 Canning effort. What are her post election leadership chances ??.

  18. I see this as a possible Lib gain and probably now the most likely of the WA seats to be won by the Libs. McTiernan is a quality candidate but will not bring anywhere near the personal vote that Smith brought.

  19. DB
    Agree it is a possible gain, however surely MacTiernan will hold the equivalent of Smith’s personal vote. She did do extrordinarily well in Canning.

  21. and MacTiernan is the only nominee now and has been given the nod to be the ALP candidate with 60 year old Don Randall saying they should have picked a younger candidate.

  22. Observer & PJ
    Don Randall is such a joke, what an idiot. MacTiernan is a quality candidate, & will be a great advocate for WA.

  25. The local govt amalgamations are going to be a big issue here now. The City of Vincent has been abolished, split between Perth and Stirling councils. Barnett’s expanded the City of Perth, not to his magic number of 130-140,000 (apparently the reasoning behind merging Fremantle with Melville), but by just enough to include UWA, QEII Medical Centre and Burswood (casino and new stadium), making some very clunky-looking boundaries where it’s expanded into Nedlands and Vic Park councils (who wouldn’t be too happy about losing one of their major ratepayers). MacTiernan is unsurprisingly furious, and Stirling apparently aren’t happy about it either. With almost four years until the next state election, Barnett may have just caused some problems for his federal mates.

    http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/city-of-perth-to-get-bigger-boundaries-20130728-2qsbg.html

  26. Forget about the outdated old duck from Labor she’s too busy selling herself and a dysfunction brand to the media and forget about the blithering ninny from the Libs who lives in Dalkeith and is amassing properties off the back of struggle street. Don’t under estimate Gab Harfouche – he is a 42yo law student, has a family with 4 children and former teacher who doesn’t muck around.

  28. Can’t imagine that this will be close to the result on election night but it certainly does say something about selecting a candidate with name recognition.

  30. The dreamers and believers want a candidate that turned on her own female party leader on national television and has a history at a state level under the much loved Carpenter government

  31. I was out at North Perth Plaza today and saw Alannah’s campaign team, they reported a very positive response to Alannah personally and a great deal of opposition to the Council amalgamations.

    I think that UMR Poll which Observer commented on will be quite accurate come the election. Labor should hold with a slightly increased margin.

  32. Is it true that I heard that the union hierarchies are using their members’ money to bank roll her campaign? Do the members know?

  33. xerxes – I don’t know why you expect US to know if it’s true THAT you heard it. On the other hand, I’d like to know where you heard it, assuming that it’s true that you did.

  34. Glen you seem interested in this… do you know if union members monies gets channeled to the Labor party to be spent on advertising for their candidates ?

  35. xerxes, I’m interested in politics. I have no idea about any sort of union money flow situation, and simply want to determine whether you’ve got some real information or are casting aspersions.

  36. Glen are you able to provide me with evidence as to whether union bosses are using union members money to fund Labor party candidate’s campaigns? I would like you to provide me with such evidence rather than accuse me of casting aspersions.

  37. Yes Glen I would like to know – can someone provide me with some proof that union bosses do not fund Labor party candidates from union funds which comprise money gained from the union fees of workers? Is this why so many union bosses end up Labor party candidates?

  38. xerxes, if YOU don’t have any evidence of it, perhaps you shouldn’t be suggesting that it’s happening without providing any basis for your claim.

  39. Glenn, are YOU wanting to prevent me from asking questions and expressing my freedom to speak in relation to relevant matters of politics? Doesn’t this illustrate that you share a similar view to the union bosses and Labor party about shutting down critical debate on where union members money is spent? Is it illegal to ask if union bosses are using union members money on campaigns for union anointed puppets?

  40. ‘union appointed puppets’ – I really don’t understand why you would say that like it’s an insult, the ALP has and always will be the political arm of the Labour Movement. The ALP was founded with the sole purpose of improving the lives of workers and to achieve outcomes for Unions that were not possible through strike action or bargaining. Unions members who don’t the role the ALP plays in the Union movement, don’t exist.

    As for who is bank rolling her campaign, it is largely Herself, Stephen Smith, community donors, business groups and Unions.

  41. Ah, the old “freedom of speech” refrain. People only use it when they’re called out on a claim that they have no justification for, intended to sway opinion rather than incite discussion. If you have heard from somebody, or from some source (say, a newspaper article), that it is happening, tell us so, and we can debate the veracity of the claim.

    As it stands, your question is the equivalent of going to a science site, asking “I’ve heard that the moon is made of blue cheese. Has anybody got any evidence of the specific type of blue cheese? Why are we teaching children that it’s made of rock?”

    So I’m issuing this simple challenge – put up evidence, or reword your question in a way that does not imply “facts” that you have no evidence for.

  43. So according to Balmain the Unions are bankrolling her campaign and so the next logical step is to say that the unions derive their funds from their members fees. By implication then it is safe to say the funds of members are being used to back roll her campaign – have the members been asked if they are happy to have their funds used in this way because I am sure they would prefer their funds used to fight their industrial matters properly for them when they arise.

  44. Is it true that I heard that the business hierarchies are using their shareholders’ money to bank roll his campaign? Do the shareholders know?

  45. “I am sure they would prefer their funds used to fight their industrial matters properly for them when they arise.”

    It seems you have completely missed my point.

    The ALP is the political arm of the Union movement, originally created with the sole purpose of achieve outcomes for Unions and their members that could not be achieved through strike action and bargaining.

    Furthermore, your principle assumption that Union funds come directly from members is fundamentally incorrect. The majority of larger unions (eg the ones that have the capacity to donate to campaigns) get their funds from a diverse range of investments. Unions have their own banks, super funds, loan lenders and property investments to draw funds from.

    I would also argue that Union members would be very comfortable their Union’s money being used to stop Abbott from being PM and to keep Abetz away from the Industrial Relations portfolio.

    So to suggest Unions are stealing their members money to fund campaigns they don’t support, is a fundamentally incorrect, completely unfounded and ridiculously biased assertion with no grounding.

  46. So you agree that union bosses divert their own union members’ fees to their nominated cronies – in some cases the nominated candidate is the union boss himself?!!!

  48. xerxes, your bias eliminates your argument. If you want to have an intelligent discussion on the role of unions in the ALP, then I am to have one. However, it is quite clear that you have already made your mind up on this regardless of the facts.

    No-one can deny that Labor receives a large amount of donations from the unions. But as I have previously, unions do not ‘divert’ fees into their ‘cronies’ campaigns for their own self interests. Rather, they donate to the ALP to help re-elect a Labor government and protect the rights and interests of their members.

    You don’t honestly expect Unions to twiddle their thumbs whilst Abbott and Abetz are sharpening their knives do you? There is more to a union’s role than bargaining EBAs and CBAs.

  49. Unions donating to the ALP is no new thing nor is it a secret. If you have anything to say about the specific campaign for the seat of Perth, go ahead. Of you want to debate the role of unions funding the ALP please move that to the federal election open thread.

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