Higgins – Australia 2013

LIB 5.4%

Incumbent MP
Kelly O’Dwyer, since 2009.

Map of Higgins' 2010 and 2013 boundaries. 2010 boundaries appear as red line, 2013 boundaries appear as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Higgins’ 2010 and 2013 boundaries. 2010 boundaries appear as red line, 2013 boundaries appear as white area. Click to enlarge.

Geography
Higgins covers suburbs in the inner south-east of Melbourne. Its suburbs include South Yarra, Prahran, Toorak, Carnegie, Malvern and Glen Iris. Most of the seat is covered by Stonnington LGA, as well as southern parts of Boroondara LGA and small parts of Glen Eira and Monash LGAs.

Redistribution
Higgins lost Camberwell in the north to Kooyong, and gained areas around Carnegie and Ormond from Goldstein and Hotham. The redistribution reduced the Liberal margin from 6.8% to 5.4%.

History
Higgins was first created in 1949 when the Parliament was expanded in size. Its first member was Harold Holt, who had previously been Member for Fawkner in the same part of Melbourne. Holt was a minister in the Menzies United Australia Party government at the beginning of the Second World War.

Holt returned to the ministry in 1949 as Minister for Immigration. He became Menzies’ Treasurer in 1958 and became Prime Minister upon Menzies’ retirement in 1966.

Holt disappeared in sensational circumstances in December 1967 while swimming at Cheviot Beach in Victoria. Higgins was won by new Prime Minister John Gorton in a 1968 by-election. Gorton had previously been a Senator and was required to move to the House of Representatives.

Gorton held the seat continously until the 1975 election. Following Malcolm Fraser’s accession to the Liberal leadership Gorton resigned from the Liberal Party and sat as an independent. At the 1975 election he stood for an ACT Senate seat and Higgins returned to the Liberal Party.

Roger Shipton won the seat in 1975 and maintained his hold on the seat until 1990, when he was challenged for preselection by Peter Costello. Costello held the seat from 1990 until his 2009 resignation, triggering a by-election.

The ensuing by-election became a contest between the Liberal Party’s Kelly O’Dwyer and the Greens candidate, prominent academic Clive Hamilton, as the ALP refused to stand a candidate. O’Dwyer won the seat comfortably, and was re-elected in 2010.

Candidates

  • Kelly O’Dwyer (Liberal)
  • Jamie Baldwin (Family First)
  • Wesa Chau (Labor)
  • Leanne Price (Rise Up Australia)
  • Phillip Dall (Palmer United Party)
  • James Harrison (Greens)
  • Graeme B Weber (Independent)

Assessment
Higgins should be safely retained by the Liberal Party.

2010 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Kelly O’DwyerLIB42,08651.74-1.87
Tony ClarkALP22,70027.91-3.17
Samuel HibbinsGRN14,55917.90+7.15
David FawcettIND1,2251.51+1.51
Ashley TruterFF7770.96+0.19

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Kelly O’DwyerLIB46,16756.75-0.29
Tony ClarkALP35,18043.25+0.29

 

Polling places in Higgins at the 2010 federal election. Central in green, North-east in yellow, South-east in blue, West in red. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Higgins at the 2010 federal election. Central in green, North-east in yellow, South-east in blue, West in red. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas:

  • Central – Malvern.
  • North-East – Burwood, Glen Iris.
  • South-East – Carnegie, Chadstone.
  • West – Hawksburn, Prahran, South Yarra, Toorak.

The Liberal Party won a majority in three areas, varying from 53.9% in the west to 60.7% in the centre. The ALP won a 53.4% majority in the south-east.

The Greens vote varied from 15.5% in the centre to 20.1% in the west.

Voter groupGRN %LIB 2PP %Total votes% of ordinary votes
West20.0953.8918,67733.65
Central15.4760.6816,74730.17
North-East18.2454.5012,30522.17
South-East16.6646.597,77914.01
Other votes18.2659.5624,829
Two-party-preferred votes in Higgins at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Higgins at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Higgins at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Higgins at the 2010 federal election.

10 COMMENTS

  1. Labor has endorsed Wesa Chau as its candidate for Higgins this election.

    https://www.facebook.com/alpwesachau

    I’d expect a larger than average swing to the Liberal Party in Higgins in 2013, not only because there was a small swing against them last time, but Kelly O’Dwyer has boosted her profile significantly in the past three years. She is seen as a rising star of the Liberal Party.

  2. Liberal retain. Be interesting to see whether they can turn those booths inherited from Hotham into 50-50’s.

  3. Those booths in Carnegie should stay Labor, despite the libs efforts there.

    Greens should continue to poll well around Prahran and Windsor. Two Greens councillors were elected to Stonnington Council recently.

  4. This seat holds pockets of Labor votes but the Liberal areas like Malvern
    preclude a labor win. Kelly may note get a swing to her …..I have seen her
    on the ABC ….q and a…….. she is a milder version of Sophie Mirabella

  5. MQ, Kelly is a good friend of mine and I can tell you that your conclusion, based on a few appearances on Q & A, that she is a milder version of Sophie Mirabella is completely wrong. If you keep an open mind about Kelly I think you will be surprised over time. For example, she is one of the few liberals (Malcolm Turnbull is the other I know) who has supported same sex marriage. I think her role on Q&A has been as a bit of a “bomb thrower” as a new MP making her mark and does not reflect her true persona. Watch this space…………

  6. Pollster
    Iv’e seen too much of O’Dwyer on Sky. All she ever does is give Lib party lines, & sound bites. It is boring, predictable,repetitive, & totally uninspiring. She is nothing more than a lawyer doing her thing. This is something the country needs a lot less of, not more.
    If you do know her. Tell her to reinvent herself totally, or just get the hell out of it.

  7. No chance of any change here, so the partisan shills from both sides should probably find more interesting seats to waste their energy on…………

  8. Pollster
    If you are serious. If O’ Dwyer is serious about making a real, & positive difference. Then i’ll take the trouble to make some recommendations.

Comments are closed.