8:52 – Seats that Labor currently appears to have lost to the Coalition: Blue Mountains, Camden, Campbelltown, Charlestown, Coogee, Drummoyne, Gosford, Heathcote, Londonderry, Maitland, Menai, Miranda, Mulgoa, Parramatta, Riverstone, Rockdale, Smithfield, Strathfield, The Entrance, Wollondilly and Wyong. The Nationals have gained Bathurst, but have fallen short in Cessnock and still fighting for Monaro.
8:13 – The swings are all over the place. In seats like Monaro and Wyong it is too close to call, despite smaller margins. Seats like Campbelltown appear to have fallen on far higher margins, while neighbouring Macquarie Fields is much closer, despite a much smaller ALP margin.
8:10 – Balmain is turning into the most interesting seat of the election. At the moment all three candidates are polling around 30%. The order of elimination will decide who wins, and this is complicated by a vote of 3% for Maire Sheehan, a left-leaning independent who preferenced Labor candidate Verity Firth. Her votes could determine who comes third. It doesn’t appear that James Falk (LIB) can win, but if he comes in the top two, the other person in the top two should win.
7:58 – The counts in Marrickville and Balmain are far too close to know what is going on.
7:52 – The Liberals are currently leading in Toongabbie.
7:50 – As far as seats on high margins that Labor was worried about, they are currently losing Campbelltown, winning Oatley, and leading in Blacktown.
7:20 – So far the ABC has called 55 seats for Coalition and 8 seats for Labor, which means the Coalition has won the election. In case there was any doubt.
7:13 – Random stat – with three booths in, the ALP is down 24.6% on primary votes in Menai.
7:09 – The seats that were expected to fall are clearly trending that way, including Menai, Wollondilly and Londonderry.
6:00 – Polls have just closed in the NSW state election. Results should begin to come in around 7pm. I will be driving back from a polling booth in the north-west of Sydney until around 6:45pm.