With two days to go, it’s time to make some predictions.
Lots of predictions have been made, some on individual seat threads and others on general NSW threads, but I thought it was time to bring them all together and make a stab myself.
I expect to get plenty of seats wrong, and in some cases there are seats which were a flip of a coin, but I have made a prediction for all 93 races.
As a disclaimer, I should make it clear that I am not putting any weight behind these predictions. It is no guarantee of a result and is likely to be wrong in details. My information varies between seats, and in some cases my limited information has forced me to make an estimate that is not strongly informed. In many other seats, however, I have a much stronger understanding of the local campaign.
The overall prediction is for a result of 50 Liberal, 19 Nationals, 15 Labor, 2 Greens and 7 independents.
I am predicting that the Coalition will hold on to their current 37 seats, although some not so comfortably as they wish. I will get into some of those below.
As far as Labor seats are concerned, the following table shows which party I predict will hold each of the 50 seats currently held by Labor.
In addition to these changes, I am predicting the Nationals will regain the independent seats of Dubbo, Port Macquarie and Tamworth, in addition to winning Cessnock, Monaro and Bathurst off the ALP.
Largely the pattern of Coalition gains follows the pendulum, with a swing of approximately 15%. A number of seats, however, have been predicted to buck the trend. I’m predicting Macquarie Fields (11.1%), Toongabbie (14.5%) and Strathfield (15.1%) will all buck the trend due to local factors.
On the other hand, I think the ALP will be hit particularly hard in Smithfield (15.5%), Maroubra (16.1%), Kogarah (17.7%), Campbelltown (18.5%) and Keira (22.0%).
In terms of geography, there are a number of interesting trends. The ALP will be decimated along the Georges River, with Wollondilly, Campbelltown, Menai, Miranda, East Hills, Oatley, Kogarah and Rockdale all falling. Only Macquarie Fields is predicted to survive, although Campbelltown is knife-edge.
In Central Sydney, Labor will lose Drummoyne, Cooogee and Maroubra to the Liberals and Balmain and Marrickville to the Greens, but I predict them holding on narrowly in Strathfield and Heffron.
In the north-west of Sydney I see Labor being mostly wiped out in Parramatta, Granville, Smithfield, Londonderry and Riverstone, but prominent figures John Robertson and Nathan Rees should hold on in Blacktown and Toongabbie.
In the Illawarra, I expect easy Liberal wins in Kiama and Heathcote, and a close win in Keira due to local factors and the candidate. Noreen Hay is likely to lose to independent Gordon Bradbery in Wollongong, with only Shellharbour remaining Labor.
In the Hunter and Central Coast, I expect Labor to lose eight of their nine seats, losing Gosford, The Entrance, Wyong, Swansea and Maitland to the Liberals, losing Newcastle and Charlestown to independents, and losing Cessnock to the Nationals. Wallsend is likely to be the only surviving Labor seat.
Outside this region, the Nationals will gain five seats: Monaro, Bathurst, Dubbo, Tamworth and Port Macquarie.
It was hard to predict which seats independents will gain, with Newcastle the only gain I am confident of. I feel strongly that Bradbery will win in Wollongong. I tend to think Mays will win a close race over the Liberal in Blue Mountains, with Mays taking most of the Greens vote. The Greens could come fourth in what has been one of their strongest seats.
In the Hunter, there are strong independents running in Cessnock, Maitland, Wallsend and Swansea, but I only credited a win in Charlestown. This could well be wrong. In addition, the Nationals are under threat in the Upper Hunter from independent Tim Duddy, but should hold on.
In addition to winning Balmain and Marrickville, the Greens will come second in a series of other seats. I expect the Greens to come second in Heffron, and could come quite close to winning. In Coogee, I expect that sitting Labor MP Paul Pearce will fall to third, but the Liberal Party will be too far ahead for the Greens to win on Labor preferences.
Greens will also overtake Labor in the Coalition seats of Manly, Wakehurst, Davidson, Pittwater, Willoughby, Lane Cove, Ku-ring-gai, Ballina and Lismore, in addition to the seats of North Shore and Vaucluse where they came second in 2007.
So what are your predictions? Please post them below. But first, here are some maps of my prediction.