NSW 2011: 17 days to go

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It’s been a few days now since I posted on the front page about NSW politics, so I thought it was time to open a new thread for any general discussion of NSW politics.

Nominations are open this week, with candidate names gradually being posted on the electoral commission website.

In a piece of news this morning, former One Nation leader Pauline Hanson has nominated for the NSW Legislative Council. While most of her political experience has been in Queensland, she nominated for the NSW upper house in 2003, polling strongly but not winning a seat.

She doesn’t seem to have much of a chance, but could take votes away from the Shooters and Fishers, the Christian Democratic Party and Family First. I’m sure there’ll be accusations that she is running simply to gain public funding. While that is possible in a federal election, it can’t happen in NSW. Funding is only available to pay for receipted electoral expenditure, and is only available if a candidate polls over 4%. Hanson won’t get over 4%.

In the last week we have seen a Galaxy poll which gave the Coalition 50% of the primary vote to 23% for Labor and 14% for the Greens. We have also seen a local poll in the Illawarra Mercury, predicting that the ALP would lose the seats of Heathcote, Keira and Kiama to the Liberal Party, and come close to losing Wollongong to independent candidate Gordon Bradbery.

Finally, I wanted to clear up some arguments in the comment threads about what is appropriate on this blog. I don’t have a clear comments policy because I haven’t needed one in the past. As far as I am concerned, people can talk about any aspect of NSW politics that they like. It doesn’t need to be dry analysis of the candidates and the numbers. It’s unrealistic to expect my commenters to act in that way, and it misses a key element of election campaigns. Elections are about politics, and political arguments are part of the campaign.

I will ask, however, that people try to stay relevant to the thread they are using. If you want to talk about general NSW politics, please use this thread (and other ones I will post in coming days). Comments on seat pages should be restricted to the campaign in that seat (or a handful of regional seats). I will start deleting comments that stray off-topic.

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78 COMMENTS

  1. I had in mind a prediction of the seat count …

    Actually on those figures the Liberals might win a majority in their own right…

  2. 71-29 suggests a bloobath in Sydney doesn’t it…..but I still think they’ve got a core 10-12 or so seats in Sydney sown up. I just cannot see seats like Liverpool, Mount Druitt, Lakemba, Bankstown, Auburn, Fairfield, Canterbury, Heffron, etc going Liberal.

    Add to that another 4-6 outside Sydney (some losses to Indies and Liberals but some holds) plus a couple of “holds” inside the swing and 50/50 wins and I’d still say 20 seats is where it should be at for Labor.

  3. In Sydney the Essential primary votes are 60:20.

    I’m thinking we will have a 10-15 seat result for the ALP. Nothing I have seen is swaying me from that now.

    The Liberals are resourcing seats that have never, ever been on the radar. They are really testing how high they can get their vote.

    Oh, and if the Primary vote is 55% statewide, that would be 12 LC quotas – though they will probably only get 11, this is massive number.

  4. Millard Fillmore – agree with most of those from private polling, however, Libs/Ind’s ahead in 10 of those 12 and some by a fair margin.

    Big Dubs – my info is pointing to something similar, but I think that Labor are kidding themselves with some of the ones listed as ‘in doubt’.

    Doug – I’ll provide my final tips below based on demography and polling, but also want to say that Sydney is more than stuffed for Labor and the Essential Poll is basically showing a late swing to the co-alition.

    Righto I’ll just put the ALP ones in what I think is the order of margin:

    Above 5% margin
    Lakemba
    Auburn
    Liverpool
    Canterbury
    Mt Druitt
    Bankstown
    Fairfield
    Heffron
    Wallsend
    Shellharbour
    Toongabbie
    Macquarie Fields

    Below 5% margin
    Smithfield
    Campbelltown
    Maroubra
    Blacktown
    Wollongong
    Cabramatta
    Cessnock
    Monaro
    Keira

    The last 4 are highly in doubt and I expect will be below 1% either way. Dorahy has not been behind in polling in Keira, but I just can’t bring myself to call for the Libs.

    Most of the regional seats in Newcastle are very hard to call because you have situations where there is a clear 35/35/20 split and preferences are just too hard to work out. I suspect the ALP will lose Charlestown, Newcastle, Cessnock (50/50), Swansea and Maitland mainly to Independents, but if preferences don’t flow between Libs/Ind’s, the ALP could hold on to a swag of these.

    Sydney is easier to determine because they are generally 2 horse races. Anyway, there it is. 21 for the ALP and I might be being kind in the city and not in the regionals…..

  5. If the swing is on the scale close to Essentail’s projections for ALP weakness in Sydney and a strong vote for independents in the regions a total of up to 10 Independents looks reasonable even allowing for the loss of Dubbo (a certainty) and probably Tamworth to the Nationals.

  6. Agree with nearly all of those DB. I think the final seat number for the ALP will be somewhere between 16-21 seats.

  7. I might just add, the final 4 seats I have for the ALP above, are all favouring the Liberals at the moment.

    The regionals are hard to predict because the Labor held ones are 3 battles and you just can’t get enough reliable info on OPV preferencing in such circumstances.

  8. It’s probably safer to assume that most of them won’t go to the ALP. It’s really unlikely the ALP can win them if their primary vote goes below 35%. Party office I think is really only focusing on Wallsend and Swansea at the moment.

  9. I did not even think Wallsend is in play

    I through Smithfield was trending toward the Liberal too

    Any news re Rockdale?

  10. dovif – I don’t like the Liberal campaing in Smithfield. Polling quite close, but I suspect Labor will be able to retain it reasonably ok (right on the 5% mark). Whereas there is about a 25% swing on in East Hills from the latest figures.

    Labor is getting hammered from the old Smith’s, Brown’s and Joneses in this election mate.

    I don’t have numbers on Wallsend, so I am being conservative.

    I think Swansea will go to the Independent but with no confidence.

  11. re Leg Council result – remember there are 16 groups plus the ungrouped. You can expect that some of the Lib vote can end up with the minors (even though they’re polling 11% of the Assembly primary). I don’t see the Libs getting 55% – but if they do that’ll be 19 after they elect the President – Shooters or CDP will be in the bag (more hunting/guns & a ban on everything else), and it’ll be an interesting 4 years!

  12. I meant the reverse of 1999, because I wasn’t around to remember 1988. But the Liberals lost Miranda, Ryde, South Coast and others and almost lost in Hornsby, Terrigal (then Gosford) and a whole pile of other seats.

    Then 2003, because generally the ALP consolidated all the close seats they won in 1999 with at times up to an additional 10% swing.

    DB, if the polls are right it is more than an Anglo swing to the Libs… Actually you can’t go 60:20 in Sydney without cutting through with most groups.

  13. Peted – agree with you, but that is where it is the highest and also Asian voters are moving to the Libs.

  14. @DB:

    On the 14th you were saying internal Liberal Party polling had Eskaros ahead, 52-48…and now you’re saying he’s on less than 45%? Why the sudden change of heart?

  15. I still refuse to believe that Labor’s polling 30-70 in Sydney. And I also feel there’s a shy Labor effect in the polls. Mind you, we’re gonna see swings of historic proportions. This’ll make 1988 look like a Labor landslide, and even possibly make 1932 look tame.

  16. Given it is late on Wednesday it is time for people to put their assessment of how many seats labor will win and which seats (and in what order of margin). If Ben is happy with the idea (as he will have to act as the go-between and judge), I will donate a bottle of bubbly for person who gets closest (if you are under 18 – bottle of coke). In the event of a tie, first in best dressed. Only one attempt per person. Last assessments (guesses?) midday Friday. To start the ball rolling:

    My selections are for 17 seats:
    Lakemba
    Auburn
    Liverpool
    Canterbury
    Mt Druitt
    Bankstown
    Fairfield
    Wallsend
    Shellharbour
    Toongabbie
    Macquarie Fields
    Heffron
    Smithfield
    Campbelltown
    Blacktown
    Wollongong
    Maroubra

  17. I made my predictions earlier, but I think they still stand up….

    Auburn
    Bankstown
    Blacktown
    Cabramatta
    Campbelltown
    Canterbury
    Fairfield
    Granville
    Heffron
    Lakemba
    Liverpool
    Macquarie Fields
    Maroubra
    Mount Druitt
    Shellharbour
    Swansea
    Toongabbie
    Wallsend

    18 seats. Not good, but it could be much worse.

  18. If it has to be in order….

    Lakemba
    Auburn
    Bankstown
    Liverpool
    Mount Druitt
    Heffron
    Fairfield
    Canterbury
    Shellharbour
    Wallsend
    Toongabbie
    Blacktown
    Cabramatta
    Swansea
    Macquarie Fields
    Maroubra
    Granville
    Campbelltown

  19. I’ve given a list of up to 22 seats that the ALP could possibly win. From that, half are definites and half are what you would consider “In Doubt”

    My Definite 11 are:
    Lakemba
    Cabramatta
    Auburn
    Canterbury
    Liverpool
    Mount Druitt
    Bankstown
    Heffron
    Kiera
    Shellharbour
    Wollongong

    The seats in doubt that I think they will hold on are:
    Blacktown
    Campbelltown
    Monaro (My Bolter)
    Cabramatta
    Toongabbie

    With that, I make it to be 16 seats. The problem that the ALP have is that they have pulled funding from so many seats, they are already conceding defeat and the voters will treat them like that, similar to Peter Debnam from the 2007 Election.

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