The two-candidate-preferred count in Bradfield has finished, with teal independent Nicolette Boele finally taking the lead right at the end, thanks to a very strong batch of postal votes and also a favourable batch of pre-poll ballots.
The AEC website says that there are 59 votes outstanding, but I have been informed by the AEC media team that these ballots can only be counted for the Senate, not the House, and so the House count has finished.
Nicolette Boele now leads by 40 votes, or a margin of 0.02%. Any seat with a margin of 100 votes or less is automatically subject to a recount.
It appears that the next step is for the AEC to conduct the formal distribution of preferences. Some ballot papers may be found to be sorted incorrectly, and I would expect the margin to change somewhat. If the margin remains under 100 votes, then a recount would be conducted.
I thought I would revisit how much recounts changed the margin in previous close races: McEwen in 2007, Fairfax in 2013 and Herbert in 2016.
In the case of McEwen:
- Labor won the count by 7 votes
- Liberal won the recount by 12 votes
- After Labor appealed to the Court of Disputed Returns, the final margin was 31 votes
In the case of Fairfax, Kevin Bonham had a very detailed post where he updated how Clive Palmer’s lead changed over the course of a month.
- Clive Palmer won the first count by 36 votes
- After the distribution of preferences, his margin was reduced to 7 votes
- At the end of the count, Palmer won by 53 votes.
In Herbert in 2016 (another useful post from Kevin), they moved straight from the indicative 2CP count to a full recount before conducting a distribution of preferences:
- Labor’s Cathy O’Toole led by 8 votes after the indicative 2CP count
- O’Toole won the recount by 35 votes
- O’Toole won the distribution of preferences by 37 votes.
So the net changes we have seen have been:
- +38 to Liberal in McEwen 2007
- +17 to PUP in Fairfax 2013 (although you could argue it is +46)
- +29 to Labor in Herbert 2016
On these numbers, a 40-vote margin in Bradfield could be overturned, although it is a substantial lead for Boele and she would be the favourite.
So in McEwan there is an example (but the only one) of the recount changing the winner; but none of those last 3 recounts shifted more than 40 votes.
In other words, nobody should get too excited/despondent, but you’d much rather be in Nicolette Boele’s position than Gisele Kapterian right now.
Ben
When is the full DOP likely to happen?
Can I assume that the DOP these days, is probably done with software as happens at NSW State and Council elections?
If by hand, it would take days??
The DOP will need to take place by hand, they don’t data enter House ballots. They will probably start tomorrow morning, although there was a small chance it could start this afternoon.
I would expect it to take multiple days, yes. Although bear in mind they will only need to distribute the minor candidates and Labor’s preferences, not touch the Liberal or Boele votes, to do a DOP.
The AEC says the full DOP follows “swiftly” after the tentative results
I guess that’s not the same as “fast”?
AEC says it “involves multiple rounds of counting, with low-ranking candidates excluded one-by-one
Interesting from these comments is perhaps a tendency to think the AEC moves ahead of actually distributing each lowest candidates’ ballots in turn. It is nice to see the estimate assuming a set two (or three) end point but it is part of the strength of the system that at the end it is done properly.
As you point out with normally 50-60% plus of ballots starting with one of the two leaders, it involves multiple stages of moving the rest into relevant piles. Some may require several moves; many just one.
The DoP was started on the afternoon of Monday 19th and continued until about 6pm. They got through about half of the booths in distributing the last placed candidate (Mulligan). There is only about 10-15 votes in each normal booth for that candidate. They have 6 tables going so are doing 6 booths at a time.
Just a technical point Ben – No.1. The whole point of the DoP is to see which candidates get excluded and in which order. If this was already able to be known, then they wouldn’t have to do it, before the recount (e.g Herbert 2016). So they don’t actually know yet that they will be distributing Labor’s preferences that’s to be determined at the final exclusion point.
And technical point No. 2. You should clarify that the “very strong batch of postal votes and also a favourable batch of pre-poll ballots” were strong/favourable only on a 2CP basis, but not primary votes. Even Antony Green has noted that they were actually strong for Labor (and the Greens, though I would argue much less so).
You can see on the AEC website that it is actually because Labor has remained so close to Liberal on categories of votes cast outside the electorate – and therefore counted last – with >50% flowing to Boele in preferences, that is the reason Boele has caught up and overtaken Kapterian in the final days of counting.
I haven’t tracked every single batch myself, since it requires constantly checking the numbers and subtracting the fresh figures from the old figures every time they change, so no I have not looked at primary votes, just 2CP.
Labor will not overtake Boele but it is mathematically possible. If there was any realistic danger they’d have conducted a 3CP in Bradfield. They did not.
In a recount:
– Do they go through all of the previously rejected absentee, provisional, postals etc.?
– Do they go through all the previous informals in case some get readmitted?
Can someone advise.
they recount every vote.
Boele’s lead now down to 33.
If it was down to 33, its now back to 39 (via AEC website)
And 43 a few minutes later.
Oppos- 41 at 13:33.
and now back down to 35
Yes, there was some bouncing around today. It’s down to 28 now with Boele still in front.
This is gonn a end up in court I think
With the difference just 7 votes, this could easily go either way.
this is defeinately gonna be sent to the court of disputed returns
What’s the current count underway that we’re talking about? The indicative 2CP, the official DoP, or the recount?
boele is down to 5 votes
They’re still doing the DoP. They haven’t done the recount yet.
there is no way this will be over 100 votes. automatic recount incoming
down to 4
i think we can safely say on the old boundaries the libs would have won
I think so John.
The Lib to teal swing in Bradfield wasn’t as defined or as strong as the Lib to Labor swings in most suburban electorates.
Geez we might still be waiting ANOTHER couple of weeks for this to be properly decided if the margin remains single digits.
And I know it’s cliche, but if this count doesn’t prove that everyone’s vote matters in Australia, I don’t know what could.
Boele may go to court if it doesn’t go her way, since she appears to have limitless funding and a rerun of the election would likely go her way, imo.
Unless Kapterian has similar big money behind her, then she’ll take it, since I doubt the Liberal Party would be keen to challenge an AEC supervised ballot.
Reading between the lines, i’d say Fran Bailey may have funded her own Court challenge in McEwen in 2007, reason being her [longtime?] staffers were out of a job if she didn’t, and as I say, the Liberal Party always accepts the umpires decision.
In Goldstein, the margin for Tim Wilson has moved out to 152 from 131. Last week he was quoted as saying that reports from scrutineers indicated that informal votes for the Teals had got through. It will be interesting to see how far the Goldstein count goes. If it keeps going in this direction then Zoe Daniel’s chance for a recount get slim.
If Boele loses, the comment at the hair salon was the fatal blow.
back up to 5
unfortunately i dont think it will have had any effect because theres 1 rule fr teals and 1 rule for liberals. people who didnt vote for her because of that likely were already voting against her
back to 4
Well, if a candidate loses by a single-digit number of votes, then anything that lost votes could be construed as “the fatal blow”.
If Boele wins, there will be Liberals wanting to tear Andy Yin limb from limb.
2 votes
3 votes now – and 167 votes in Goldstein
Votes are currently equal now
Never seen a draw this far into a count before
Tim Wilson’s lead in Goldstein is now up to 264. 4 hours ago it was 167. That is a lot of votes to be out by in a marginal seat.
Gisele Kapterian now up by 4 in Bradfield. That has turned around as well.
@Redistributed. Re Goldstein, I reckon that’s a bunch of 50 ballots found to have the wrong ballot on top. Realising and correcting that results in a swing of 98 votes.
The libs will have the resources to challenge the result in the court whether bowel can muster a challenge if she were to lose is the question
I can’t say a lot but there were dodgy things going on in the northern part of this seat that appear to have favoured the independent…….well at least so far.
Goldstein now at 440 – that is 300+ since yesterday. Kevin Bonham or someone – what is the story?
“Redistributed May 23, 2025 at 5:23 pm
Tim Wilson’s lead in Goldstein is now up to 264. 4 hours ago it was 167. That is a lot of votes to be out by in a marginal seat.”
100 vote turnaround sounds like a Wilson bundle of 50 was found in a Daniel pile.
Alternatively, a Wilson 49 has 1 Daniel vote on top, making a 98 vote turnaround.
Haven’t seen that myself, though I was told that’s how a 19 vote Labor lead became a 79 vote LNP victory in Bulimba on a recount at the 2012 Qld Election.
@Redistributed must of been a big batch of Liberal votes that came in.
Baseless conspiracy allegations will get you banned.
Fair enough. Sorry.