The two-candidate-preferred count in Bradfield has finished, with teal independent Nicolette Boele finally taking the lead right at the end, thanks to a very strong batch of postal votes and also a favourable batch of pre-poll ballots.
The AEC website says that there are 59 votes outstanding, but I have been informed by the AEC media team that these ballots can only be counted for the Senate, not the House, and so the House count has finished.
Nicolette Boele now leads by 40 votes, or a margin of 0.02%. Any seat with a margin of 100 votes or less is automatically subject to a recount.
It appears that the next step is for the AEC to conduct the formal distribution of preferences. Some ballot papers may be found to be sorted incorrectly, and I would expect the margin to change somewhat. If the margin remains under 100 votes, then a recount would be conducted.
I thought I would revisit how much recounts changed the margin in previous close races: McEwen in 2007, Fairfax in 2013 and Herbert in 2016.
In the case of McEwen:
- Labor won the count by 7 votes
- Liberal won the recount by 12 votes
- After Labor appealed to the Court of Disputed Returns, the final margin was 31 votes
In the case of Fairfax, Kevin Bonham had a very detailed post where he updated how Clive Palmer’s lead changed over the course of a month.
- Clive Palmer won the first count by 36 votes
- After the distribution of preferences, his margin was reduced to 7 votes
- At the end of the count, Palmer won by 53 votes.
In Herbert in 2016 (another useful post from Kevin), they moved straight from the indicative 2CP count to a full recount before conducting a distribution of preferences:
- Labor’s Cathy O’Toole led by 8 votes after the indicative 2CP count
- O’Toole won the recount by 35 votes
- O’Toole won the distribution of preferences by 37 votes.
So the net changes we have seen have been:
- +38 to Liberal in McEwen 2007
- +17 to PUP in Fairfax 2013 (although you could argue it is +46)
- +29 to Labor in Herbert 2016
On these numbers, a 40-vote margin in Bradfield could be overturned, although it is a substantial lead for Boele and she would be the favourite.
So in McEwan there is an example (but the only one) of the recount changing the winner; but none of those last 3 recounts shifted more than 40 votes.
In other words, nobody should get too excited/despondent, but you’d much rather be in Nicolette Boele’s position than Gisele Kapterian right now.
Ben
When is the full DOP likely to happen?
Can I assume that the DOP these days, is probably done with software as happens at NSW State and Council elections?
If by hand, it would take days??
The DOP will need to take place by hand, they don’t data enter House ballots. They will probably start tomorrow morning, although there was a small chance it could start this afternoon.
I would expect it to take multiple days, yes. Although bear in mind they will only need to distribute the minor candidates and Labor’s preferences, not touch the Liberal or Boele votes, to do a DOP.
The AEC says the full DOP follows “swiftly” after the tentative results
I guess that’s not the same as “fast”?
AEC says it “involves multiple rounds of counting, with low-ranking candidates excluded one-by-one