Podcast #146: The dropping major party vote

I had two flashbacks when listening to this podcast.

The first was a post election feedback presentation given by all parties after 2019 election at the Queensland Parliament. At that time I asked the Labor person – shouldn’t you be worried about your primary vote; this is heart attack territory for any major party wanting to be in majority government? It was a very dismissive answer, which indicated to me that no-one was taking this seriously. Well maybe they were, but they were not going to admit it publicly.

The second was last week’s episode of Swingers on the ABC, which covered many of the points raised here. I can’t remember the exact figures but I think it was 89 seat were decided on primary votes 20 years ago and at the last election some 19 seats were decided on primary votes, so we better get used to the role of minor parties.

I see the decline of the major parties being more a problem for Labor, than the Liberals. From this layman’s perspective there seems to be more growth in progressive minor parties, than what there is for the conservative side. It seems to me that the smaller conservative parties tend to be noisy, but not large in numbers. Whereas the pressive minor parties seem to growing in parties and numbers, which to me seem to represent a bigger threat to Labor.

I for one thought Dutton was in with a show towards the end of last year. Not because I saw he and his party had the answers, but because they were riding that giant wave of discontent against sitting governments. That all swung around in the last month when Trump went all crazy and people started to have second thoughts about what a mini-me Dutton Government could actually implement. It seems Albo possible could get his second Scott Morrison.

I realise that government is formed in the lower house, but lately I feel, because of the limited candidates I have in my seat with CPV, that the Senate is where I really get to express my true voting intentions and that may be the most interesting result this time around.

Agree Neil about 2025 being a sort of repeat of 2019. Morrison was not well liked at the time, similar to Albanese today but he represented a ‘safe’ pair of hands compared to uncertainty offered by the opposition party, so voters reluctantly backed him and the Coalition.

“From this layman’s perspective there seems to be more growth in progressive minor parties, than what there is for the conservative side.”

I respectfully disagree. In one random electorate (Leichhardt) we have the LNP, One Nation, Katters, Libertarian, Family First and Trumpet of Patriots – six parties on the right, plus an independent who is preferencing the LNP second and Labor second-last. They are opposed by Labor, the Greens and Legalise Cannabis. Seven choices for the ‘right’, against three choices for the ‘left’.

Looking at another random seat in a different state (Gilmore), you again have LNP, One Nation, Family First and the Trumpets, going against Labor, the Greens, Legalise Cannabis and a leftish independent (glancing very quickly at their website, no HTV offered).

It may be a completely different story in the Senate, but even then you have characters like Rennick running in Queensland splitting the right even further.

@Real Talk I think their point was more about the vote than the number of contestants. In that electorate, probably only ON and Katter will get any decent number of votes, the rest will struggle to get their deposit back. Katter only runs in a handful of seats, so for most of the country ON is the only rw minor to get any real vote share. On the left, Greens of course do well, but also LC get a decent vote, and VS in Victoria.

Also of course you’ve got left-leaning indies in a lot of places, and a spattering of others who don’t do very well.

Attended a suburban prepoll both today in South East Queensland and it was interesting that Trumpets had someone handing out, People First multiple people, yet Greens and One Nation were both missing. I would normally expect them at this booth.

There can be huge variation between booths especially for One Nation whose organisation on the ground has always been inconsistent, but still fascinating to see People First well organised.

I’m interested to see which electorates will surprise everyone. My pick is Franklin, Tasmania, where a new Independent, Peter George is taking on incumbent Julie Collins ALP. Supported by Climate 200. George is running primarily on the issues of the Salmon farms, which is such a hot topic.
Worth some attention.

@LNPinsider Greens missing in SEQ? Is it one of their seats? If not I could see that but if it is that’s concerning.
@Viv agree, my picks for surprises (or at least results most consider unlikely) also include Leichhardt, Brisbane and Fremantle.

I found this podcast really interesting and insightful. Especially the first half (2nd half went a bit weird).

The view expressed by Ben mainly that single member system can deal with a non traditional contest sort of ok, but it’s where there is a mixed picture as to who will make the final 2CP count, that the “system” really struggles. The reference to a push for ‘strategic” voting in a seat that one “group” has decided – for their own interests” that Labor or the Greens can’t win, really hit an emerging issue spot on.

The “system” referred to here I think is a much the media ecosystem as the electoral mechanics. As someone heavily involved for the last two federal elections and the NSW state election in between, in campaigns in Teal contested seats but where the Labor vote is relatively OK – it has been staggering how quickly the media wants to publicize a head to head contest and simply not even mention that 40 – 45% of the electorate issues a primary vote for someone other than the presumed leading two. We even had an instance last year of a Teal candidate being talked up in media drops of secretive polls, of winning the 2CP from 17% of the primary vote – with simply an unstated assumption that they would make the top two.
It’s a constant and normally unsuccessful fight to get a candidate from the party that last time polled 20-25% primary, onto debates, even on the ABC – when the lessor ranking of the assumed top two candidates is either new on the scene or got a few % more in the previous election.

There has been the decline in single-issue parties and the broadening of minor parties to capture the disenfranchised vote or third-party vote. Many minor parties run in dozens of seats. Greens, Family First, ToP and One Nation are running in most seats, to various degrees of interest and seriousness. Add to that, there’s the huge number of independents, especially teals.

Looking back to the 1990s and 2000s makes you realise or recall the niche parties we once had – Fishing Party, Non-Custodial Parents Party, No GST, Smokers Rights etc.

Were there no aircraft noise party around in the 80s/90s – or was that just in NSW?

@HighStreet, you make a very good point about the media coverage. I wonder if part of that has to do with both who’s doing the actual reporting on the campaigns (i.e who gets sent out to talk to candidates), and also who makes the calls on what goes to air/print?

In both cases, maybe it’s a matter of personal comfort? That is, they know who to talk to in the major parties, and with limited time and resources, just focus their attention there? Or maybe it’s that they know that their aging audiences (or sponsors/advertisers) are not interested in hearing from this scary new world of diverse voices?

In Riverina we have *thirteen* candidates. A tired National incumbent going through the motions to increase his superannuation, a tired Labor candidate who has tried multiple times before without shifting the needle, *five* right wing crazy minor parties, a totally unsuitable Greens candidate, and *five* independent candidates (including one community-backed independent). It is a total shit show.

Ryoma,

I think at times they are biased AGAINST the major parties. I see it from a Labor side of view but I am sure there are Liberal candidates with a chance to come second in Green – Labor contests that are frustrated with not getting any attention. All parties and candidates are affected.

MEMO to Media – DO NOT PRE JUDGE THE OUTCOME – THIS IS ACTUALLY PUTTING A FINGER ON THE SCALE OF THE RESULT AS VOTERS BELIEVE CANIDATES NOT BEING SPOKEN ABOUT CAN’T WIN, WHEN THIS IS NOT TRUE

I think its what Ben inferred – if its a not a two person horse race, the media gets confused.

Reminds me of the 1948 US election when the papers just guessed the result and printed “Dewey defeats Truman!” when in fact he didn’t. There’s a priceless photo of Truman holding the paper. Don’t trust the media on this sort of stuff.

Bruce is Southeast not Southwest. Brad Battin’s stomping ground is not part of the West, thank you very much.

Did I say that on the show? Sorry just mis-spoke, I do know it’s in the south-east.

In terms of causes for the trend of the dropping major vote, another obvious factor that wasn’t raised in that we’ve had an increased number of no-major parties candidates, getting elected. Even though we have a preferential voting system, that doesn’t mean that voters seriously consider giving their first vote for parties and candidates they feel have no prospect of getting a seat.

As in the Senate, a voter may best align with a candidate/party they don’t know anything about. The more it looks like they need to know about a non-major party candidate, the more voters who do better align with that candidate will find that out for themselves and vote accordingly.