8:41 – We now have the two-party-preferred from every election day booth and I’m led to believe that’s all we’ll get tonight. Labor’s 2PP is now sitting on 60.6%. This compares to 47.5% on the election day vote in 2022, a swing of 13.1%. Now it seems quite possible that swing will be moderated by the addition of pre-poll and postal votes, but it remains a huge swing towards a government. In general swings towards governments are rare in by-elections. I’m not sure I’ve seen many as definitive as this one.
That’s it for me tonight. I will be going back to my current project of finishing my federal election guide tomorrow, but in December I’ll be back with complete datasets of all the late 2024 elections. Thanks for joining me!
7:37 – The only reason to hesitate calling this race for Labor is that there is the potential that the gap between the election day 2PP and the pre-poll/postal 2PP could widen, as it has done in a number of other elections including the Dunstan by-election earlier this year. If that’s the case, the final Labor margin could narrow. But at this point it doesn’t seem possible for it to narrow enough. So this is a Labor win.
7:35 – Five election day booths have reported figures and Labor has a primary vote of 44.6%, plus a Greens primary vote of 16.8%, while the Liberal primary is just shy of 33%.
Those five booths are reporting two-party-preferred, with Labor on 59.4%. This looks very good for Labor.
7:04 – Just a reminder that the Liberal margin in Black is just 2.7% so they can’t afford much of a swing.
7:00 – Antony points out the turnout at the first booth was down quite a bit. We won’t get any pre-poll or postal votes counted tonight.
6:28 – And now Sheidow Park has Dighton on 50.1%. The ALP polled 39% there in 2022, so that’s another big swing to Labor.
6:57 – The first booth to report is Seacliff South. Labor’s Alex Dighton is on 40.6%, and Liberal Amanda Wilson is on 35.0%. The nearest booths in 2022 had the Liberal primary vote around 49-51%, and Labor’s primary was around 35%, so that looks like a big swing to Labor.
6:48 – Yes I’m still watching, but we have no data yet.
6:00 – Polls have just closed in the South Australian state seat of Black for the by-election triggered by the resignation of former Liberal leader David Speirs. I will be tracking the results here tonight, but while we wait for results you can check out my by-election guide.
@James @Nimalan To add to your points the major centres in the Adelaide Hills have been undergoing quite a bit of development in recent years that they’re not really country/rural towns anymore but rather satellite cities of Greater Adelaide. Mt Barker in particular is a mini city itself and the likes of Hahndorf, Bridgewater, Stirling, Crafers etc are all rapidly growing in development and population with inner city tree-changers moving in who are well-educated and somewhat affluent.
The amount of natural conservation areas like Mt Lofty, Cleland amongst others also influence the Greenish nature of this area vs other rural areas.
The Adelaide Hills is probably more comparable to the western side of Ryan and Moggill in Brisbane rather than the hippie-filled Byron Bay, Ballina and Northern Rivers. It’s more suitable to the Teals (Sharkie isn’t really a Teal but she’s a centrist which is close enough) to outrun the Liberals but in their absence the Greens do have a good opportunity for Heysen, less so for Mayo. But their chances are probably better in Heysen than the likes of Unley or even Adelaide.
What was the prepoll result?
Did it matter?
@Yoh An – Absolutely.
The Hills has a decent Greens vote just like the Blue Mountains and Sunshine Coast hinterland, mainly due to gentrification/densification among large towns like Stirling, Aldgate, Mount Barker, etc., as well as many residents being environmentally conscious. Exactly like the Blue Mountains (a lot of more ‘hipsters’/alternative lifestyles in the upper Mountains), and the Sunshine Coast hinterland (old agricultural area that has transformed into hippie paradise, environmentally concious).
@Tommo9 – thank you for your further insights as an SA resident. Definitely builds upon the previous points discussed by Nimalan and I.