This map is the largest booth map I’ve published, and it shows the two-candidate-preferred results in eleven of WA’s fifteen seats, and the swings in ten (there being no valid 2CP swing in Curtin).
I’m not sure what exactly I want to focus on with this map, but overall it does show the dramatic scale of Labor’s victory in Perth, where they picked up four extra seats, holding nine out of eleven seats on this map (along with one Liberal and one independent).
The swing map is remarkable. I spot three small booths with tiny swings to the Liberal Party – in Moore, Brand and Burt.
Overall the median size of the swing to Labor is around 11-12%, and some of the biggest swings are around 16-20% in Pearce.
Looking at the booth results, there’s a handful of Liberal booths in the eastern suburbs, while they still won a sizeable number of booths along the coast through Moore, Curtin, Tangney and Swan, but they are swamped by Labor. Large swathes of the city voted 60%+ for Labor after preferences.
That’s it from me – for those who know Perth better, what jumps out at you?
Lived in Perth all my life, here’s my $0.02:
A lot of 2021 Labor voters decided to vote for them again this time, but not to the same magnitude. Last time Labor did well in Greater Perth federally was under a federal Labor leader from WA.
A friend of mine in Tangney mentioned that Ben Morton wasn’t the best constituency MP and took his seat for granted.
My MP (Ian Goodenough) hung on purely for having a bigger margin than Morton did.
With Curtin, if that seat was in the UK, I think it would be a competitive Tory-Lib Dem seat, like southwestern London seats. Kate Chaney (and the other Teals) would be Lib Dems if they were British. The lack of a party like that in Australia since the Democrats decline has meant seats like Curtin remained safe for our Liberals (UK Tories) until recently.
As for 2025… after the last 3 years I am NOT going to predict the next three.
So as a born and bred Perthian my interpretation of the result is:
1. There are some areas with a small single digit swing to Labor but these are mostly in heavily Labor leaning areas with not much room for movement such as around Rockingham in the outer south, Kelmscott/Armadale in the outer south East and the City of Fremantle where there were 2 booths with a 2PP over 80%.
2. Strong swings to Labor in inner northern Perth, suburbs such as Mt Lawley, Yokine, Dianella etc. These are reasonably well off, educated areas similar to 3 way marginals like Higgins and Macnamara but not large enough to constitute a single seat in Perth. Curtin is similar but wealthier still (basically the Wentworth of Perth) which led to the election of Chaney. On a sidenote if you drew the seat of Perth as an inner core seat with a radius roughly 3-4km west and north of the CBD it would be a genuine 3 way marginal.
3. Very strong swing in new developments on the urban fringe, places like Baldivis, Aubin Grove, Ellenbrook and the northern fringe suburbs of Pearce, so mostly young Labor leaning voters. In the northern suburbs I think Labor did even better with the large British born population where the experience they had in Perth with Covid stood in stark contrast with their families back home. The swing to Labor in general in WA I think is mostly a halo effect of WA state Labor.
4. There is an area around the middle north of Perth centred around Balga where the swing was lower – around 3-10%, the Liberal party’s social conservatism probably helped prop their vote slightly as these areas have more socially conservative voters with a lot of Muslim and Vietnamese and other South East Asian people living in these areas though still heavily Labor leaning. Tbh I’m not sure, the reduced swing could also be that it was part of the abolished seat of Stirling where the previous Lib member was standing in Cowan or driven by non-immigrant communities, it’s probably a little bit of everything.
5. Look at the swings in Tangney in the suburbs of Winthrop to Bull Creek to Willetton. These are established suburbs with by far the highest Chinese populations in Perth (mostly Malaysian and Singaporean Chinese). These people are also wary of mainland China but would see no purpose in openly antagonising them for no good reason.
I’m not from WA. I was stunned by the Libs’ losses (5 seats). I was expecting no more than 3 Labor gains including Pearce and Swan (vacant seats) and expecting Kate Chaney to lose in Curtin. Albo’s performance in WA was way better than Kim Beazley’s performance in 2001 and 1998, despite Kim being a local.
Pearce had the biggest 2PP swing in the country with 14% and Swan came second with 12%. I’m not sure if Christian Porter in Pearce had a huge personal vote that may’ve inflated his 2PP result in 2019 and 2016. Perhaps it’s demographic changes or a strong Labor campaign and candidate.
@Votante Pearce is mostly recently developed mortgage belt territory which Labor did particularly well in Perth. It used to be a hybrid urban rural seat whereas its now fully urban based so maybe that changed the voting dynamics as well.
Swan is my home seat and the swing is a combination of a few things. The local member retired even if he wasn’t that well known or regarded that wouldn’t have helped. This is traditionally a suburban mixed electorate with suburbs becoming less well off as you go from west to east but it seems that dynamic is breaking down a bit. There are a lot of apartment developments going up throughout the electorate, many subdivisions, lots of people like me are looking for affordable areas and properties near the CBD. The Libs under a Dutton type leadership won’t regain seats like Swan and will most likely go backwards.
@Malcolm. The part on Pearce makes sense as there’s urban sprawl as well as an incumbent MP retiring. WA being the fastest, if not the second-fastest, growing state means that there’s a lot of new housing estates and mortgage belts.
Mark McGowan and/or Albo may lose their shine by 2025. Dutton will see marginal WA seats as low-hanging fruit and he’ll be eager to win what he’d just lost. LNP traditionally hold most of the WA seats. All eyes will be on WA next time.
Dutton might have appeal in some of the now marginal Lib held seats in WA like Moore and Canning. He might also be able to make inroads into winning back outer suburban Pearce and Hasluck. However, I doubt he would be too appealing in some key inner city seats he needs to win back from Labor like Swan and Tangney (the latter has a large Chinese Australian population which swung hard this time over the Lib’s and especially Dutton’s hawkish rhetoric and stance on China).
In his maiden speech as LOTO Dutton said something to the likes of Queensland & WA having an affinity for eachother – If he takes this line to an election he’ll sink, they’ll have to actually get a voice from WA.
I anticipate the WA Liberals will be putting Hastie front and center over the next few years, the talent pool they can draw from within Perth is basically nonexistent beyond him (Ian Goodenough & David Honey each being the sole representatives in the Perth area is nothing short of embarrassing), but whether he can match this with policy is another thing.
The stance of Hastie and Dutton on China and Climate Change might keep them from winning back Curtin & Tangney, but an emphasis on cost of living could do them lots of favours in taking back Hasluck and sandbagging Moore & Durack.
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