Federal election guide unlocked

By
Ben Raue
-
11

It looks likely that the federal election will be called this coming weekend, for the 14th or 21st of May.

With that, I’ve now unlocked my full federal election guide. It features profiles of all 151 House races and the eight Senate contests, including history, election results, candidates and maps.

Thanks to everyone who signed up as a Patreon donor to access the full guide – if you want to support this project please head on over and sign up. The Victorian election guide remains as a benefit for people who sign up for $5 or more per month.

I’ll be back later this week with the first federal election episode for the podcast, and there’s a lot more coverage planned over the next month and a half.

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11 COMMENTS

  2. Great response Ben – always love reading your insights.

    So how can Labor win the election:

    1) Seats already won – Swan, Boothby, Bass, Pearce, Reid
    2) Seats need to win – Longman, Chisholm, Husluck (or another WA seat), Leichardt, Robertson, 1 other NSW seat
    3) Seats in doubt – Hunter. Blair,
    4) Seats that will be a surprise for Labor: North Sydney (something is going on here), Brisbane, Sturt, Also seats like Petrie, Flynn, Forde, have inflated margins, Tangney, Page, Banks

    So how can the Liberal Party win:

    1) Retain all seats (not going to happen) Swan, Boothby, Bass, Reid and Pearce are already gone and Wentworth and some Sydney North Shore seats are in doubt from the Teals
    2) Win: Hunter, MacQuarie, Cowan, Eden-Monaro, Dobell

    Some thoughts

  3. James why is Blair in play? Why would it be in play this time if they failed to take it last time?

  4. Agree with you James, at this stage Labor has more paths to win government compared to the Coalition. I would say Labor are already favoured to gain the open seats of Swan, Boothby and Pearce (which takes them up to 72) and then they only need to defeat another four incumbents in ‘toss-up’ seats for a majority, these being Chisholm, Hasluck, Robertson, Reid and Leichardt.

    In contrast, the Coalition are not really favoured to gain any seats from Labor at this stage. They already have the five toss-up seats against Labor and also Wentworth being at risk of an independent gain.

  5. I would also add Bass to the toss-up seats list, which gives a total of 6 Liberal seats at risk of being lost to Labor (with Boothby, Swan and Pearce already considered write offs to some extent).

  7. I would add Brisbane as well, where Labor is hopeful of success. The problem for Labor, if it wins government will be the make up of the Senate. The thought of someone like Clive Palmer having the balance of power in the Senate is a very scary thought.

  8. @Daniel, Blair is within striking distance and might continue its momentum towards the LNP, mostly due to population growth throughout the pandemic. There are growing parts of the electorate in the outer suburban fringes which have a similar profile to the neighbouring division of Wright. This population growth has also coincided with a decline of Blair’s traditional industries – rail and energy. The division has turned into more of a dormitory region on the edge of Greater Brisbane. And the economic activity has morphed into more typical economic activity, divorced from labour unions – who Labor were mostly reliant on for votes, their blue-collar base.

  9. My thinking is that the certain losses for Libs are Boothby, Swan and Pearce. For this reason the Libs should try pick up at least 3. I think the best 3 for Libs (not saying they will pick it up) are Lyons, Dobell and Hunter. I am not sure what will happen in Bass but it is a blue collar/regional seat where Scomo may have a better appeal. Reid is a likely loss but the Canada Bay area is trending Liberal especially suburbs like Five Dock etc. There is a large Italian Catholic community north of Parramatta road so that may mitigate any negative swing among the Chinese community same with Banks where the Waterfront suburbs are demographically trending in the right direction for the Libs so i don’t feel that Bass, Reid or Banks are certain losses. Lingari maybe also an outside chance for CLP with potential loss of Snowdon’s personal vote in the mainly White towns. Antony Green. There is a possibility IMHO that the Coalition can form a minority government with maybe 74 seats plus two cross benches (Stegall/Haines, that is a best case scenario for them. Brisbane i feel that the Greens have a better chance at taking the seat, Labor’s primary vote there has been steadily decreasing

  10. If Coalition keeps 74 seats, they should only need 1 independent because I would think, despite talking a big game, Bob Katter would ensure supply & confidence to the Coalition.

  11. Starting with 65 OK for ALP and then 2PP estimates and seats for ALP on the way to 78. Blanks for Ind or Green in 2PP. Just mucking around. Would argue to focus on VIC as much as QLD
    Hunter NSW 55.8 66
    Corangamite VIC 55.3 67
    Dobell NSW 55.3 68
    Lilley QLD 54.8 69
    Gilmore NSW 54.7 70
    Chisholm VIC 54.2 71
    Boothby SA 53.7 72
    Swan WA 53.5 73
    Pearce WA 52.0 74
    Bass TAS 51.9 75
    Flinders VIC 51.7
    Reid NSW 51.3 76
    Longman QLD 51.0 77
    Higgins VIC 50.2
    Deakin VIC 50.1 78
    Hasluck WA 49.9 79
    Brisbane QLD 49.9 80
    Lindsay NSW 49.7 81
    Casey VIC 49.4 82
    Dickson QLD 49.3 83
    Ryan QLD 49.2 84
    Robertson NSW 49.0 85
    Kooyong VIC 48.8
    La Trobe VIC 48.6 86
    Leichhardt QLD 48.5 87
    Wentworth NSW 48.4
    Sturt SA 48.3 88
    Banks NSW 47.9 89
    Braddon TAS 47.9 90
    Bennelong NSW 47.9 91
    Page NSW 47.5
    Hughes NSW 47.4 92
    Tangney WA 47.4 93
    Bonner QLD 47.4 94
    Flynn QLD 47.2 95
    Goldstein VIC 46.9
    Herbert QLD 46.9 96
    Mackellar NSW 46.1
    Nth Sydney NSW 45.9

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