NSW council elections thread

19

That’s it for the liveblog. I will be back with further analysis tomorrow.

Wednesday 2:07pm – The last eight of the big councils have reported this morning:

  • Hornsby – The Liberal Party won the mayoralty on Monday, but have now confirmed a solid majority on the council with LIB 6 (+1), GRN 3 (+1), ALP 1 (-1) and IND 0 (-1).
  • Lake Macquarie – Mostly a status quo result, but Labor gained the majority thanks to gaining a seat off a retiring progressive independent, while also retaining the mayoralty. Current numbers ALP 7 (+1), LIB 3 (-), LMI 3 (-). Another case where 4-member wards produced 6-6 deadlock between two sides.
  • Liverpool – We already knew on Monday that the Liberal Party had taken the mayoralty back from Labor, but the council results have otherwise been a status quo result despite both independents from the LCIT being in danger of defeat to Greens or Liberals. Current numbers LIB 5 (+1), ALP 4 (-1), LCIT 2 (-)
  • Newcastle – Labor had already retained the Newcastle mayoralty and they have now confirmed their solid hold on the council majority. Meanwhile the Newcastle Independents, who were the main opposition on the last council, have been mostly wiped out. ALP 7 (-), LIB 3 (+2), GRN 2 (+1), NI 1 (-3)
  • Shoalhaven – The Greens and Labor now hold a majority on the Shoalhaven council to support the re-elected Greens mayor. The right-wing Shoalhaven Independents Group who won 5 seats in 2016 and had seven seats prior to this election have been knocked down with two other independents winning seats. Final numbers GRN 4 (-), SIG 4 (-1), ALP 3 (+2), IND 2 (+2), Gash 0 (-3)
  • Sydney – Only one change compared to the pre-election numbers, with the Greens replacing conservative independent Angela Vithoulkas. Yvonne Weldon was elected as an independent to replace her ally Kerryn Phelps, who had been elected as a Moore Team councillor in 2016, while Moore held on to her other seats. Final numbers CMT 5 (-1), LIB 2 (-), ALP 1 (-), GRN 1 (+1), IND 1 (-)
  • The Hills – The Liberal Party still holds a large majority, but not quite as large, with nine seats out of thirteen. This compares to ten seats as of the last election, and eleven seats after a 2018 by-election. The Greens also won their first seat, while Labor won back the third seat they lost in 2018.
  • Wollongong – No change. ALP 6, LIB 3, GRN 2, IND 2.

Tuesday 12:16pm – Five big councils reported their results this morning. We won’t have anymore major councils until tomorrow.

  • Northern Beaches – mostly status quo, with the Greens gaining a seat off independent Alex McTaggart in Pittwater. Your Northern Beaches 6, Liberal 5, Greens 2, Good for Manly 1 and one independent (Vincent De Luca). The Greens defeated Labor for the last seat in Curl Curl ward by 273 votes.
  • Parramatta – Labor won seven seats, just one short of a majority. Our Local Community won four seats, with one Greens councillor and three independents: independent Liberal Georgina Valjak, longstanding independent Lorraine Wearne and new progressive independent Kellie Darley.
  • Randwick – Labor five, Liberal five, Greens four and independent Noel D’Souza. This is a gain of one seat for the Greens from independent Anthony Andrews in Central ward, and a gain of one seat for the Liberal Party from D’Souza’s ally Carlos Da Rocha.
  • Ryde – The Liberal Party is in a dominant position on Ryde council, with six seats (+2). Labor has also gained one seat from their four seats in 2017, winning five, along with independent Roy Maggio. This is bad news for Labor, however, since three of their allies were defeated: both Greens seats were lost, and independent Simon Zhou was also defeated.
  • Sutherland – The Liberal Party has regained control of Sutherland Shire, gaining an eighth seat. Labor lost two seats, dropping to just five, with the other two held by new independents Leanne Farmer and Laura Cowell.

Monday 4:15pm – Three more councils to finish Monday:

  • Georges River – Labor and Liberal each won five seats (a loss of one seat for Labor), with the new Georges River Residents and Ratepayers Party also winning four, along with independent Benjamin Wang.
  • Inner West – Labor gained three extra seats to hold a majority with eight seats. The Greens retained their five seats, as did two independents. The three seats changing hands all previously belonged to conservative councillors who had allied with Labor in the last term. One of those conservatives, Vic Macri in Marrickville, lost his seat by just 64 votes.
  • Ku-ring-gai – There are no formal parties in Ku-ring-gai, but there were two factions that each held five seats on the last council. The Spencer faction retained four of its five seats, while just one of the councillors supporting former mayor Jennifer Anderson was re-elected (Martin Smith). Anderson herself was the last eliminated in Roseville ward, but didn’t come close to winning, losing by over 1200 votes.

That’s it for today. I’ll be back with more results tomorrow.

Monday 3:05pm – It appears that most if not all mayoral elections were concluded this morning, and there are eight councils amongst the 24 I’m covering worth mentioning:

  • Hornsby – Liberal retain, as expected.
  • Lake Macquarie – Labor retain, as expected.
  • Liverpool – Liberal candidate Ned Mannoun defeated Labor candidate Nathan Hagerty with 51.3% of the two-candidate-preferred count. Mannoun led the council from 2012 to 2016, when Labor’s Wendy Waller won. Waller retired in 2021 and Hagerty was hoping to succeed her. The Liberal Party still has a chance of winning a council majority with this result.
  • Newcastle – Labor retain, as expected.
  • Shoalhaven – Greens mayor Amanda Findley was re-elected on just 34.2% of the primary vote. 27.6% of formal votes ended up exhausting, with Findley defeating former mayor and former CDP member of the upper house Paul Green with 51.7% after preferences. This keeps the door open for a Greens-Labor majority on the previously conservative council.
  • Sydney – Clover Moore retain, as expected.
  • Wollongong – Independent lord mayor Gordon Bradbery has been re-elected with just 51.4% after preferences. 23.9% of formal votes ended up exhausting by the final count. This shuts the door on a Labor majority.

Monday 2:50pm – Just adding in one more council, then I’ll come to this morning’s mayoral results:

  • Cumberland – Labor regained the mayoralty with eight seats, alongside four Our Local Community, two Liberal independents and one ex-Labor independent. I thought the second Labor seat in Wentworthville ward would be close but in the end she was elected ahead of the Liberal independent and the independent fell a long way behind.

Monday 2:42pm – A bunch of results have already come in.

  • Bayside – Labor has retained their seven seats on Bayside, with the Greens winning their first seat, alongside seven independents. Two of those independents were sitting Liberals on the previous council. Two other incumbent independents have been re-elected (Tsounis and Barlow), with Barlow’s running mate Mark Hanna winning a seat. New independents Heidi Douglas and Jennifer Muscat.
  • Blacktown – Labor has retained their ten seats, alongside five independents. Two of those independents were sitting Liberals on the last council, along with a third endorsed by a rival Liberal faction and two other independents.
  • Camden – The Liberal Party has retained their four seats, along with Labor’s three and incumbent independent Eva Campbell. The only change was replacement of retiring independent Robert Mills with new independent Peter McLean, who appears to be in the balance of power.
  • Campbelltown – The Greens missed out in the race for the final seat. Labor has retained seven seats, along with four Liberals (up one). Community First and Totally Locally Committed parties each retained their one seat, with the other two seats won by independent Masud Khalil and Animal Justice Party. The Greens lost their sole seat, with the final margin of victory being just 239 votes between the AJP and the Greens.
  • Canterbury-Bankstown – Labor retained nine, Liberals retained five, Greens lost their sole seat to independent Barbara Coorey in Canterbury ward.

Monday 20th December, 9:00am – The NSW Electoral Commission is planning to declare results from most elections over the next three days. Every election has a timeslot when it is planned to be declared.

I won’t be constantly updating this post as I’m away on holiday but should update at least once a day, focusing on the 24 big councils I’ve published guides for.

For today we are expecting results from:

  • Bayside
  • Blacktown
  • Camden
  • Campbelltown
  • Canterbury-Bankstown
  • Cumberland
  • Georges River
  • Inner West
  • Ku-ring-gai

Of these, I’d be keeping an eye out for:

  • Can Labor get to a mayoralty in Inner West or Cumberland, and can the Liberals get to a majority in Camden?
  • Do the Greens hold their sole seat in Campbelltown, and can Animal Justice win their first council seat?
  • Can the Georges River Ratepayers and Residents Party manage to win five seats, achieving parity with Labor and Liberal?

We are also getting mayoral results from most if not all mayoral results, but for our purposes I’m interested in mayoral results from:

  • Hornsby
  • Lake Macquarie
  • Liverpool
  • Newcastle
  • Shoalhaven
  • Sydney
  • The Hills
  • Wollongong

I’m most interested in Liverpool, Shoalhaven and Wollongong, which will likely decide control of their council.

All of the mayoral results are due by midday today, with Hornsby and Wollongong due any minute now.

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19 COMMENTS

  1. One for the election nerds in Blue Mountains ward 2. On primary vote quotas Greens were in 3rd place (of 3) for the final seat behind Liberals and independents. However managed to eke out a win (I assume due to BTL leakage)

  2. Amanda Findley winning the Shoalhaven Mayoralty for the Greens again, but this time having a majority with the other Greens plus Labor… an endless delight.

  3. Some more interesting electoral results I found:

    Greens only managed to turn 1.89 quotas into one seat in Yass Valley. For some reason they didn’t have a “ticket vote”, and due to exhaust the remaining Green in the count only had 0.62 quotas after the others were elected/eliminated, which put her 10th in the running for 9 seats (which preferences didn’t change)

    They also missed out on a 3rd seat in Kiama. The Greens blew a 0.07 quota lead to lose by 8 votes. Only 58 votes between the last 3 candidates for 2 vacancies, and Greens only fell out of a winning position at the very last distribution of preferences. I guess the opposite situation to the Blue Mountains ward 2 result – you win some you lose some.

  4. We have a New Mayor for Kempsey Shire Council, a win of about 400 Votes, the Nationals won’t be happy and this could follow onto the NSW State Election where dumped NSW Water Minister M>Pavey is the local Member for Oxley.

  5. @john in regards to Yass Valley there was no above the line voting as the Greens were the only group to request a group voting square and there for no ‘ticket’

  6. About Northern Beaches Council Mayoralty, Jose Menano-Pires jumped ship to Your Northern Beaches when the Liberals wouldn’t preselect him. Don’t be surprised if Jose votes with the Liberals for Mayor since he just used YNB to get himself onto Council. Vincent de Luca votes with the Liberals so the most the conservatives could muster for the Mayoralty is seven. The only chance the Liberals have to snatch the Mayoralty is to convince the two new Greens councillors which could happen (hey stranger things have happened before?) by offering Kristyn Glanville as Deputy Mayor as exposure for her run as the Greens candidate for Warringah next year.

  7. That ratting could’ve happened if the Greens didn’t knock off McTaggart but I don’t see it happening now, unless Bingham might flip. Don’t see the Greens doing it.

  8. Labor lost a seat in Canada Bay with the Libs retaining their third spot and OLC picking up 2 plus the mayoralty.
    Libs also picked up the last spot in Burwood.
    In Strathfield, Labor was not able to capitalise on the withdrawal of Liberal candidates and only obtained 3/7 seats with non-left/conservative councillors picking up the remaining 4.
    Implications can already be drawn for Reid. Strathfield by-election and potential Drummoyne by-election- if ICAC gives adverse findings to the sitting member- will be interesting.
    Inner West Outer becoming entrenched Liberal or at the very least decline in Labor vote with the exception of Burwood

  9. A Liberal Mayor in Penrith and Liverpool, yet a Labor Mayor in Lane Cove and and Independent Mayor in North Sydney, supported by ALP and Sustainable Australia. What’s going on in this topsy turvey world…..?

  10. Very interesting, we have a new interdependent Mayor at Kempsey Shire Council, however a new election will happen soon for all the Councillors.

  11. High Street, I believe the recent NSW election results (Federal and local so far) are perhaps an early sign that the political landscape is undergoing a major shift. The affluent inner northern suburbs of Sydney (around North Sydney and Lane Cove councils) are like some parts of New Jersey surrounding New York City. These places are traditionally conservative leaning, but have above average median income and tertiary education attainment rates. Voters with this background are fiscally conservative but socially progressive, and are turned off by the Trumpian style of current Liberal Leaders Morrison and Perrottet, instead choosing to back Labor or small ‘l’ liberal independents.

  12. However, voters in Western Sydney are more working class, and whilst this group is traditionally Labor leaning, these voters no longer see Labor as best representing their interests, and now vote Liberal or for one of the minor conservative parties. Overall, Western Sydney behaves like some parts of the American Midwest such as Pennsylvania, which have swung away from Democrats and are now more competitive, sometimes even slightly conservative leaning.

  13. Yoh An, i would say a lot of Western Sydney is more aspirational than Working Class suburbs such Harrington Park, Glenmore Park, West Hoxton and Middleton Grange amongst others. Many of these voters are not in white collar jobs but nevertheless have reasonable living standards often send their children to low fee non government schools, have McMansions and so not see themselves as the same social class with suburbs such as Auburn, Yennora, Lalor Park etc. John Howard was effective in getting their vote.

  14. Agree Nimalan, Penrith and Liverpool councils contain most of these middle to upper class suburbs which are not quite working class but not fully affluent either (an aft description used by some on this site is Cashed up Bogan). These voters are the ones that were courted as ‘Howard battlers’ and also backed by Morrison as ‘quiet Australians’.

    More of these suburbs also exist south of Bankstown and east of Hurstville – some examples being Revesby, Padstow and Peakhurst.

  15. I find it interesting that in this day and age there are councils that didn’t have enough nominations to even fill seats! There are by-elections being held [all regional councils across the far parts of the state] for Cobar Shire Council, Murray River Council and Tenterfield Shire Council on Saturday 26th February. Cobar had 12 seats to fill and only 11 nominations, so will be a by-election for one Councillor at large. Murray needs to fill two spots with one each for Greater Murray and Great Wakool wards. Those wards have 3 members each. Tenterfield needs to fill two spots with one each for Ward C and Ward E [east side for the town] with these wards having 2 members each. With postulation on by-election dates for the State Seats, why not hold it on the same day? I digress, but an interesting tidbit, nevertheless. Would be interesting to see if these by-elections become a contest.

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