Victorian state redistribution – final estimates

By
Ben Raue
-
29

The final boundaries for the Victorian state redistribution were released last Thursday. It’s taken me a few days but I’ve now finished making my new map and updating my redistribution estimates.

I won’t do much to analyse the changes in this post. You can see my summary analysis of the draft boundaries and my estimates of margins for the draft boundaries. I will update my estimates of the two-candidate-preferred margins, primary votes for the main parties and upper house votes for the main parties in this post, along with a map showing the 2018 and 2022 boundaries.

There have been a few changes worth noting. I reckon about half of the seats have had some change since the draft boundaries, although I haven’t done a proper count. The proportion of electors who have moved seats has dropped from 17.4% to 16.8%.

The Commission reversed the renaming of Mill Park to Morang (so it remains Mill Park). They also changed the names for the Ballarat area. No longer will Wendouree be renamed Eureka. It will keep the name Wendouree, but it’s neighbour Buninyong is now named Eureka.

I’d also like to note Prahran and Albert Park. The Commission had recommended quite a substantial change to these seats, rotating them to swap quite a lot of territory. Instead the final boundaries make only minimal changes. This is good news for the Greens, since Labor had been substantially strengthened in Prahran on the draft boundaries. The Greens are still in third, as they were in 2018, but Labor has not shot out into the primary vote lead.

This parallels the federal process, where substantial rearranging of the Higgins/Macnamara boundary was reversed in the final decision.

Finally here is the map. New boundaries are in blue, old are in red. You can toggle on and off each set of boundaries and the seat names separately. I’ve posted the margin estimates after the fold.

Correction: I updated the two-candidate-preferred margins table at 1pm on Tuesday. The other tables are fine, but it appears that a bunch of seats were displaying the draft margin, not the final margin. Thanks to Antony for noticing.

Two-candidate-preferred margins

Seat Old margin New margin
Albert Park ALP 13.1% ALP 12.9%
Ashwood (Burwood) ALP 3.3% ALP 2.3%
Bass ALP 2.4% LIB 0.7%
Bayswater ALP 0.4% LIB 0.7%
Bellarine ALP 11.5% ALP 11.4%
Benambra LIB 2.4% LIB 9.4%
Bendigo East ALP 12.1% ALP 12.1%
Bendigo West ALP 18.6% ALP 18.6%
Bentleigh ALP 11.9% ALP 11.3%
Berwick (Gembrook) LIB 0.8% LIB 2.1%
Box Hill ALP 2.1% ALP 2.8%
Brighton LIB 1.1% LIB 0.5%
Broadmeadows ALP 30.3% ALP 24.3%
Brunswick GRN vs ALP 0.6% GRN vs ALP 2%
Bulleen LIB 5.8% LIB 5.7%
Bundoora ALP 17.4% ALP 16%
Carrum ALP 11.9% ALP 12.2%
Caulfield LIB 0.3% LIB 0.1%
Clarinda ALP 17.4% ALP 14.9%
Cranbourne ALP 11% ALP 9.1%
Croydon LIB 2.1% LIB 0.9%
Dandenong ALP 23.9% ALP 23.5%
Eildon LIB 2.4% LIB 1%
Eltham ALP 9.1% ALP 8.8%
Essendon ALP 15.9% ALP 15.8%
Eureka (Buninyong) ALP 12.2% ALP 9.7%
Euroa NAT 15.4% NAT 16%
Evelyn LIB 2.6% LIB 1.6%
Ferntree Gully LIB 1.6% Abolished seat
Footscray ALP 28.1% ALP 29.1%
Frankston ALP 9.7% ALP 10.1%
Geelong ALP vs IND 6.2% ALP vs IND 6.1%
Gippsland East NAT 17.6% NAT 17.6%
Gippsland South NAT 15.3% NAT 13.7%
Glen Waverley (Forest Hill) LIB 1.2% LIB 1.5%
Greenvale New seat ALP 22.7%
Hastings LIB 1.1% ALP 0.4%
Hawthorn ALP 0.4% ALP 0.5%
Ivanhoe ALP 12.4% ALP 12.7%
Kalkallo (Yuroke) ALP 20.3% ALP 20.1%
Kew LIB 4.8% LIB 4.8%
Keysborough ALP 14.9% Abolished seat
Kororoit ALP 25.6% ALP 25.3%
Lara ALP 19.1% ALP 19.1%
Laverton New seat ALP 23.4%
Lowan NAT 23.5% NAT 20.9%
Macedon ALP 13.2% ALP 13.4%
Malvern LIB 6.1% LIB 6.6%
Melbourne GRN vs ALP 1.3% GRN vs ALP 1.7%
Melton ALP 4.3% ALP 5.4%
Mildura IND vs NAT 0.3% IND vs NAT 0.3%
Mill Park ALP 24.9% ALP 24.9%
Monbulk ALP 8.6% ALP 9%
Mordialloc ALP 12.9% ALP 13.5%
Mornington LIB 5% LIB 5%
Morwell IND vs ALP 1.8% ALP vs IND 1.1%
Mount Waverley ALP 1.8% Abolished seat
Mulgrave ALP 12.7% ALP 16.2%
Murray Plains NAT 23.9% NAT 24%
Narracan LIB 7.3% LIB 11%
Narre Warren North ALP 9.8% ALP 10.2%
Narre Warren South ALP 6.9% ALP 10.7%
Nepean ALP 0.9% ALP 0.6%
Niddrie ALP 12.6% ALP 12.7%
Northcote ALP vs GRN 1.7% ALP vs GRN 1.7%
Oakleigh ALP 15.8% ALP 16.1%
Ovens Valley NAT 12.6% NAT 12%
Pakenham New seat ALP 2%
Pascoe Vale ALP vs IND 8.3% ALP vs IND 9.1%
Point Cook (Altona) ALP 14.6% ALP 12.3%
Polwarth LIB 5.4% LIB 2.5%
Prahran GRN vs LIB 7.5% GRN 9.4%
Preston ALP vs GRN 20.7% ALP vs GRN 21.2%
Richmond ALP vs GRN 5.5% ALP vs GRN 5.8%
Ringwood ALP 2.8% ALP 3.7%
Ripon LIB 0% ALP 2.8%
Rowville LIB 5.7% LIB 5.3%
Sandringham LIB 0.6% LIB 0.4%
Shepparton IND vs LIB 5.3% IND vs LIB 5.3%
South Barwon ALP 4.6% ALP 3.7%
South-West Coast LIB 2.3% LIB 3.3%
St Albans ALP 21.5% ALP 21.9%
Sunbury ALP 14.3% ALP 14.6%
Sydenham ALP 17.9% ALP 17.9%
Tarneit ALP 18% ALP 17.9%
Thomastown ALP 27.2% ALP 27.3%
Warrandyte LIB 3.9% LIB 3.9%
Wendouree ALP 10.3% ALP 11%
Werribee ALP 12.6% ALP 13.6%
Williamstown ALP 22.1% ALP 18.7%
Yan Yean ALP 17% ALP 16.9%

Primary votes for main parties

Seat ALP prim LIB prim NAT prim GRN prim
Albert Park 43.4 31.6 16.3
Ashwood (Burwood) 40.8 44.3 11.7
Bass 36.7 43.5 6.1
Bayswater 40.7 47.6 8.9
Bellarine 49.7 35.6 9.1
Benambra 17.7 40.1 3.5
Bendigo East 50.3 20.9 15.9 8.0
Bendigo West 53.5 27.1 13.1
Bentleigh 49.4 33.6 8.2
Berwick (Gembrook) 41.2 48.5 7.1
Box Hill 40.4 44.3 13.6
Brighton 32.4 44.8 14.9
Broadmeadows 56.4 15.1 7.9
Brunswick 38.6 7.8 42.7
Bulleen 36.4 52.0 11.1
Bundoora 55.3 29.9 8.0
Carrum 53.0 32.5 5.5
Caulfield 34.0 46.1 14.8
Clarinda 54.8 27.5 7.1
Cranbourne 48.7 34.3 4.0
Croydon 39.4 46.6 8.9
Dandenong 64.5 22.5 7.0
Eildon 36.6 46.9 10.9
Eltham 49.8 37.0 10.5
Essendon 46.2 27.5 16.8
Eureka (Buninyong) 45.0 31.3 9.3
Euroa 28.0 59.5 5.2
Evelyn 40.7 48.1 10.0
Footscray 54.4 17.3 20.1
Frankston 46.3 32.6 7.6
Geelong 41.8 21.9 9.0
Gippsland East 21.7 56.7 6.2
Gippsland South 28.1 1.0 57.9 9.3
Glen Waverley (Forest Hill) 41.5 48.8 8.4
Greenvale 60.0 24.2 7.0
Hastings 38.5 44.8 10.3
Hawthorn 32.9 43.9 17.7
Ivanhoe 46.5 32.0 15.0
Kalkallo (Yuroke) 59.4 25.3 5.9
Kew 31.4 49.4 15.2
Kororoit 63.5 20.8 8.2
Lara 57.9 24.1 7.5
Laverton 57.5 20.8 12.1
Lowan 21.9 6.0 57.9 5.3
Macedon 48.1 31.8 9.9
Malvern 29.4 51.6 12.9
Melbourne 35.2 17.4 38.8
Melton 34.7 16.8 4.6
Mildura 17.4 2.9 37.5 3.8
Mill Park 62.8 21.3 5.3
Monbulk 42.3 36.9 16.6
Mordialloc 50.9 31.0 7.5
Mornington 34.3 50.6 9.8
Morwell 38.5 14.1 9.0 3.7
Mulgrave 59.2 28.4 6.5
Murray Plains 19.4 60.3 4.2
Narracan 31.9 55.6 6.0
Narre Warren North 50.9 35.7 6.2
Narre Warren South 52.1 33.2 5.8
Nepean 37.9 44.2 11.0
Niddrie 55.1 34.0 6.9
Northcote 41.7 10.7 39.5
Oakleigh 53.3 29.7 11.3
Ovens Valley 20.8 1.9 42.1 4.8
Pakenham 44.1 43.5 7.9
Pascoe Vale 38.2 11.5 20.7
Point Cook (Altona) 49.7 24.2 7.9
Polwarth 31.4 46.2 10.4
Prahran 30.7 32.5 28.3
Preston 52.4 16.6 14.6
Richmond 44.2 33.6
Ringwood 42.5 43.6 13.4
Ripon 41.2 36.6 4.6
Rowville 35.8 50.9 9.4
Sandringham 33.3 42.5 8.1
Shepparton 11.6 26.6 13.0 2.4
South Barwon 38.9 38.6 8.4
South-West Coast 24.5 34.4 6.2
St Albans 60.7 24.0 11.2
Sunbury 58.6 33.6 7.7
Sydenham 61.0 28.5 6.4
Tarneit 56.7 25.9 7.7
Thomastown 61.8 15.2 4.1
Warrandyte 35.8 50.0 10.5
Wendouree 50.4 34.0 9.0
Werribee 45.9 16.7 6.5
Williamstown 50.1 20.3 13.2
Yan Yean 55.8 26.2 1.3 5.5

Legislative Council vote by region

ALP LNP GRN Others
Region Old New Old New Old New Old New
Eastern Victoria 33.6 33.5 34.1 33.9 6.7 6.9 25.6 25.7
North-Eastern Metropolitan 37.0 38.7 36.1 33.6 9.0 8.5 17.9 19.2
Northern Metropolitan 42.6 41.6 16.5 16.4 16.7 18.3 24.2 23.7
Northern Victoria 31.8 31.3 31.2 31.6 6.6 6.6 30.4 30.5
South-Eastern Metropolitan 49.9 49.0 29.0 29.6 5.6 5.5 15.5 15.9
Southern Metropolitan 34.6 35.1 38.3 38.0 13.5 13.1 13.6 13.8
Western Metropolitan 46.2 46.8 21.3 20.8 8.7 8.1 23.8 24.3
Western Victoria 38.2 38.3 29.9 29.8 7.5 7.5 24.4 24.4
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29 COMMENTS

  1. Caulfield is interesting and seems to fly under the radar in discussions about marginal seats. The addition of around 3000 voters from East St Kilda has cut that already small Liberal margin to only 0.1% now.

  3. Thanks! It’s a very mundane explanation. The model worked fine but when I went to generate the HTML it seems to have been stuck with the draft margins. Will have the correct ones up in a minute. And yes it does increase the Lib margin.

  4. The new Legislative Council boundaries are not good for the Greens (quite by coincidence the are sensible boundaries for geographical and community of interest reasons). Lots more Green voters in Northern Metro, exactly where the Greens don`t need them (they were 46 votes short of still having a candidate (no 5, the best down group BTL getter) in the race after Ratnam was elected).

  5. Hi Ben, potential typo on Pascoe Vale where it says 8% margin. This was against an Independent but not the Liberals. The TPP was around 68% IICR against the Liberals at the last election.

  6. Pascoe vale showldn’t have a margin given that Oscar Yildiz and the Green candidate are basically equal on the redistribution

  7. @Tom,

    I think the Vic Greens should run more of an lower house targeted seats campaign. They will win NM and win back South Metro. They have a chance in East but not much apart from that. if I were them, I would redirect more of the resources into seats like Pascoe Vale, Preston, Footscray, Albert Park and the inner Eastern Seats.

  8. https://www.tallyroom.com.au/44204/comment-page-1#comment-757947

    The Greens chances in the Legislative Council depend on whether or not GTV is scrapped or not. With GTV still in place, they can`t even be sure of regaining Southern Metro. However, the likely surplus in Northern Metro will give them a bargaining chip in GTV preference negotiations.

    With ATL preferencing, almost certainly the replacement for GTV if it is scrapped, the Greens are competitive or better in most regions.

    It comes down to what sort of Legislative Council crossbench the ALP want to face in the next term (and if the Coalition back reform as the ALP+Greens are not enough and the other crossbenchers are the result of GTV).

  10. I dont think Greens are confident enough in any of their current seats to risk heavily resourcing long shot seats. They lost Northcote and won their 3 by tiny margins. Prahran was a miracle in both 2014 and 2018.

    They have a decent chance of winning Richmond as soon as they pick a candidate that isn’t controversial. They might still be competitive in Northcote if they can hold it together as a party in the region, and Greens dod surprisingky well in single member wards.

    When Labor’s John Kennedy retires the Greens could maybe grab Hawthorn. They should also give Kew a try if Tim Smith resigns.

    But I dont expect Pascoe Vale, Preston and Albert Park to be winnable until Brunswick, Northcote and Melbourne are safe Green seats. Footscray probably needs a byelection or a strong win in another tier of government to be targeted as winnable. Securing Liberal preferences will help and other state Liberals have preferenced Greens recently, but I don’t see it happening in Vic.

    Greens will struggle to win more than North and South Metro until GVTs are abolished. It seems like they used to be good at playing the GVT game and that got Nina Springle up in 2014 (although BTLs were important too). Now though they will basically need a full quota to get elected anywhere.

  11. Regarding Prahran, I think it’s an interesting one for the Greens because it’s the only GRN v LIB seat which makes the margin look a lot more comfortable than it is.

    The 2CP margin is absolutely safe (as long as they make that count) because realistically, Prahran is a write-off for the Liberals now that Toorak is gone. Almost every suburb in the seat – Prahran, Windsor, St Kilda & St Kilda East are comfortably left-leaning (>60% 2CP) while even the Liberals’ most competitive suburb South Yarra is only 50/50.

    So this is basically a GRN v ALP seat in terms of competitiveness, even if the 2CP contest is either GRN v LIB or ALP v LIB. The Liberals’ PV is (and will remain) far too low for it to be a three-way contest despite the three parties’ primary votes all being similar. The Liberals realistically need a PV over 40% for it to be a three-way contest and they will never get close to that in Prahran now.

    So as a GRN v ALP contest at the 3CP count, I think it’s far from safe but the trend favours the Greens. I don’t see Labor doing better in 2022 than 2018, which could move the Greens into second place on primary vote next year, and the long term trend seems to be away from Labor in the inner city.

    Any leakage of the Labor vote – to either the Greens or Liberals – will benefit the Greens because the Liberals are not in the race here, and if Labor couldn’t win it in the 2018 landslide then they probably have less chance of winning it in 2022 or 2026.

  12. https://www.tallyroom.com.au/44204/comment-page-1/#comment-757974

    The ALP winning Hawthorn was because it was a landslide election for them. The Libs are likely to regain it at the next election.

    Targeting Pascoe Vale and Preston would mainly be a a combination of long term targeting and boosting the Greens` vote in local government and Wills/Cooper.

    An Albert Park campaign helps for Southern Metro, as well as Macnamara and Port Phillip.

    Footscray helps with Western Metro.

  13. I honesty don’t see Greens Winning Richmond in the next state election with the current popular member who is a cabinet minster so lots or resource will be thrown here to hold on. The preference deal that LNP has with ALP ( I am aware the LNP didn’t field a candidate in this seat) will assist them here like it did in previous elections. The Greens best & most likely outcome is to retain Melbourne, Brunswick, Prahran with Greens picking up Northcote. Any other seats are out of reach for the next election. If the Greens want to win Richmond they either need the current member to resign or for the Liberal party to direct preferences to them. The new redistributions have cut out Green friendly voting suburbs which has & will assist the Labor party to hold on.

  15. Bob
    Richard Wynne in Richmond is 66 and may not run again – he would be 71 in 2026. Agree that Kathleen Maltzahn was a polarising figure for the Greens. The public housing areas are a bulwark for Labor but there is enough new development to balance. With right candidate there really is no reason why the Greens can’t win – on federal votes they probably would.

  16. I don’t think you can reasonably say Prahran is unwinnable for the Liberals. The margin has only shifted by two points. The 2018 landslide inflated the margins of lots of traditional swing seats. The sandbelt quartet are now all above 60-40. Prahran is still more marginal than all of them.

  17. The Sheriff,
    I agree Morwell will be. a seat worthwhile watching as it could be a potential ALP pick up. However, if Labor are defeated in 2022 this could stay with the independent or go to the LNP.

    Redistributed,
    Only if Richard Wynne or the LNP swish preferences otherwise I think it’s unrealistic for them to win here.

    David,
    I think the Greens would still be the favourites to hold on to Prahran rather then them winning Richmond at this point of time.

  18. Sheriff
    Morwell will definitely be more attractive to Labor. Antony Green gives it an ALP margin of 4.6% if Russell Northe does not run. My tip is that the Mayor of Latrobe, Sharon Gibson, will run for the ALP. There was a big push from Latrobe Council for Moe to be included.
    There may be times when a local council may have an interest in State or Federal boundaries but is it really the best use of the ratepayers money?

  19. David I think the trend has also just been naturally moving away from the Liberals in South Yarra, which is now realistically the only suburb in the whole seat where the Liberals can get above 50% of the 2CP.

    The suburbs of Prahran, Windsor, St Kilda and St Kilda East are comfortably left-leaning and have been for a long time. Even when the Liberals won Prahran in 2010 (their only win since the 1990s), it was won north of Commercial/Malvern Road in South Yarra & Toorak.

    But Toorak is no longer in the seat (granted it was only about 3500 electors), and the high-rise development in South Yarra has changed the suburb’s makeup to bring in more of a younger Southbank/Docklands demographic, outweighing or at least balancing the ‘old money’ element around Toorak Rd and making the suburb a lot more 50/50 than it once was.

    I think in a good election for the Liberals, the best they could get is around a 55% 2CP in South Yarra, and could get the Orrong booth close to 50/50, but that’s not enough to outweight the left dominance of everything else south of Commercial Rd.

    The big difference between Prahran and the sandbelt, or even Albert Park, is that the sandbelt and Albert Park (excluding St Kilda) tend to produce traditional ALP-LIB swings. All those seats basically saw a roughly 10% LIB to ALP swing which can be directly attributed to the landslide, and that’s why I think the 12% margin in Albert Park is less safe than the 9% margin in Prahran. In all those seats, an anti-ALP swing is likely to mostly just be a straight reversal and be an ALP to LIB swing, with possibly a small Green swing in Albert Park.

    Whereas in Prahran, I think the Greens would benefit just as much from any swing against the ALP as the Liberals would. The 9% swing against the Liberals’ PV in Prahran in 2018 went 4% to the Greens, only 3% to Labor and 2% to others; compared to more of a straight LIB>ALP swing in other seats. That means any anti-ALP swing in future elections is likely to have a far smaller impact in Prahran – there’s only 3% to win back from the “Dan-slide” factor compared to 10% in Albert Park or Bentleigh.

    If anything the 2018 landslide probably did as much to stunt the Greens’ growth in Prahran (and keep that 3PP contest close) as it did to harm the Liberals, so I imagine a correction of that landslide would increase both the Greens & Liberal primary votes, moving the Greens comfortably into second place while giving the Liberals a primary in the high-30s, nowhere near high enough to be competitive (they narrowly lost with 44% in 2014).

  20. Three Labor members not recontesting next year – Jill Hennessy in Altona (now Point Cook), Danielle Green in Yan Yean and Dustin Halse in Ringwood. Not sure why he is going after only one term. Labor have margins of about 12 – 14% in Altona and only 3% in Ringwood. Ringwood is definitely winnable by the Libs – and if they put the effort in and had the right candidate Point Cook and Yan Yean might also be winnable. These are the parts of Melbourne that the Libs have to put an effort into if they are ever going to win government ever again.

  21. Richard Wynne now retiring in Richmond so the Greens may be in with a chance if they can come up with a better candidate than Kathleen Maltzahn. Though the Greens image may be tarnished by current shenanigans in the City of Yarra.

  22. Agree, Redistributed. Interestingly, there was very little no swing in 2018 in Altona in stark contrast to the rest of the state. Perhaps indicating demographic change. Yan Yean saw a huge swing but a lot of that can be attributed to the Liberal candidate being disendorsed and the delivery of the Mernda rail extension. Point Cook is very different to other Western Suburbs and is quite middle class although Altona Meadows in the seat (which is solidly working class). Yan Yean is also different to neighbouring northern suburbs seats. For example the suburb of Doreen while in Whittlesea Council is quite affluent very different to Thomastown and Lalor. Both seats are mortgage belt and can swing quite wildly. It would be interesting what the margin for Point Cook would be if it included Williams Landing and not Altona Meadows.

  23. Point Cook is the sort of seat the Libs need to target and I think I read somewhere they will target it more than they did last time. However, it is probably a 2-3 term prospect for them, with 2022 for margin cutting.

    Having Williams Landing in Point Cook would make Laverton even more of a Franken-seat, given the Williams Landing is one of the best linked places to Truganina.

  24. Victoria seems like the hardest state to redistribute, mainly because there’s always one random suburb in the middle of all the others which sticks out like a sore thumb, and given there’s nowhere else like that one suburb around it, the area doesn’t feel represented properly.

  25. It would not be surprising if Lisa Neville does not recontest in 2022. She has not been very well and she might feel that 20 years is enough. Bellarine would be winnable for the Libs with a good candidate. If Stephanie Asher does not win Corangamite, she might have a crack at Bellarine if Lisa Neville retired.

  26. Agree, Having Williams Landing in Point Cook would lead to a weird shape for Laverton, although it makes sense from a demographic point of view based on income, education, SEIFA and also ethnic composition (large South Asian/Chinese community). Also it maybe the case that Kim Wells may retire as he would have served for over 30 years at the time of the next election.

  28. Burwood MP Will Fowles contesting Ringwood in 2022 after Dustin Halse announced his retirement. Burwood has been renamed Ashwood but half of Ashwood is the old Mount Waverley and it now seems Ashwood will be contested by Mount Waverley MP Matt Fregon avoiding the possibility of 2 incumbents running against each other in Glen Waverley.

  29. If the current Labor factional war in Victoria doesn’t smack of hubris, I don’t know what does. They do have a lot of factional hacks in parliament so seeing them go would not be a tragedy. It really does look as they are spending more time playing games than running the state. They make the Vic Libs look cohesive – and geez that is an achievement!!

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