I will firstly acknowledge that I am very late in publishing these figures. I’ve just finished moving house during the first two weeks of lockdown and it has pushed back my timelines.
Anyway, this post contains my estimates of the two-candidate-preferred margins, the primary vote for the main parties, and my estimate of the figures for the Legislative Council regions. In particular the Labor vote has changed significantly in the renamed North-Eastern Metropolitan region.
Antony Green has also published his estimated margins here. In most cases they are very similar, but I always like to have my own estimates, which I need in order to publish sub-electorate level voting figures for my election guides.
I’ve already summarised the changes here.
The seats of Bass and Bayswater have flipped from Labor to Liberal. Hastings, Ripon and Prahran have flipped to Labor. Meanwhile one Liberal seat and two Labor seats have been abolished, and replaced by three Labor seats. This means Labor has gone from 55 seats at the 2018 election to 57 notional seats.
I should particularly draw attention to Prahran. On the primary vote, the Greens have dropped into third place. If those numbers stayed the same, the seat would revert to a Labor vs Liberal contest. But of course that could well change, and the Greens are still well within reach of winning. The Liberal position has become a lot weaker against either Labor or the Greens. If the Liberal Party falls into third place then this margin becomes irrelevant, but I think the Labor vs Liberal margin is similar to the Labor vs Greens margin.
There are a number of other seats where the two-candidate-preferred count was a bit complicated. Voters from Prahran, which was Greens vs Liberal, have been shifted to Albert Park, Caulfield and Malvern, and I have treated the Greens votes as Labor votes in those seats.
In the seats of Mildura and Geelong, where an independent made the final count in 2018, I have ignored the small number of votes moved from neighbouring seats.
In Broadmeadows, Pascoe Vale and South Barwon, I have calculated a Labor vs Liberal count and have distributed Independent preferences between Labor and Liberal in the same proportion as was the difference between the 2PP and 2CP in 2018.
The last thing to note is the Legislative Council. The Eastern Metropolitan region has been renamed as North-Eastern Metropolitan region, with two seats being added from the Northern Metropolitan region.
The Labor vote in that region has increased from 33.6% to 38.8%. Two quotas is 33.3%, so this means Labor would now have a decent surplus that will influence who wins the fifth seat. The Greens vote also increased from 6.7% to 8.5%, with most of that coming from the others vote, which has dropped dramatically.
The Labor vote in that region has increased from 37.0% to 38.8%, which will likely increase the Labor surplus that will influence who wins the fifth seat. The Greens vote dropped from 9% to 8.5%, and the Liberal vote dropped from 36.1% to 33.7%.
Labor’s vote has dropped slightly in the northern suburbs, with the Greens solidifying their vote further from 16.7% to 18.4%. That will make their seat extra safe but the Greens are far from winning a second.
The shifting of Essendon from the West to the North hurts the Greens in Western Metro, with their vote dropping from 8.7% to 8.1%. That will certainly hurt their efforts to win back the seat they held from 2006 to 2018.
|Seat||Old margin||New margin|
|Albert Park||ALP 13.1%||ALP 9.2%|
|Ashwood (Burwood)||ALP 3.3%||ALP 2.3%|
|Bass||ALP 2.4%||LIB 2.3%|
|Bayswater||ALP 0.4%||LIB 1.0%|
|Bellarine||ALP 11.5%||ALP 11.4%|
|Benambra||LIB 2.4%||LIB 9.4%|
|Bendigo East||ALP 12.1%||ALP 12.1%|
|Bendigo West||ALP 18.6%||ALP 18.6%|
|Bentleigh||ALP 11.9%||ALP 11.3%|
|Berwick (Gembrook)||LIB 0.8%||LIB 2.1%|
|Box Hill||ALP 2.1%||ALP 2.9%|
|Brighton||LIB 1.1%||LIB 0.5%|
|Broadmeadows||ALP 30.3%||ALP 24.3%|
|Brunswick||GRN vs ALP 0.6%||GRN vs ALP 2.0%|
|Bulleen||LIB 5.8%||LIB 5.7%|
|Bundoora||ALP 17.4%||ALP 17.6%|
|Buninyong||ALP 12.2%||ALP 7.2%|
|Carrum||ALP 11.9%||ALP 12.2%|
|Caulfield||LIB 0.3%||LIB 0.6%|
|Clarinda||ALP 17.4%||ALP 14.9%|
|Cranbourne||ALP 11%||ALP 9.1%|
|Croydon||LIB 2.1%||LIB 0.9%|
|Dandenong||ALP 23.9%||ALP 23.5%|
|Eildon||LIB 2.4%||LIB 0.6%|
|Eltham||ALP 9.1%||ALP 8.3%|
|Essendon||ALP 15.9%||ALP 15.8%|
|Eureka (Wendouree)||ALP 10.3%||ALP 13.0%|
|Euroa||NAT 15.4%||NAT 16.0%|
|Evelyn||LIB 2.6%||LIB 1.6%|
|Ferntree Gully||LIB 1.6%||Abolished seat|
|Footscray||ALP 28.1%||ALP 29.1%|
|Frankston||ALP 9.7%||ALP 10.1%|
|Geelong||ALP vs IND 6.2%||ALP vs IND 6.1%|
|Gippsland East||NAT 17.6%||NAT 17.6%|
|Gippsland South||NAT 15.3%||NAT 13.9%|
|Glen Waverley (Forest Hill)||LIB 1.2%||LIB 1.5%|
|Greenvale||New seat||ALP 22.6%|
|Hastings||LIB 1.1%||ALP 0.4%|
|Hawthorn||ALP 0.4%||ALP 0.4%|
|Ivanhoe||ALP 12.4%||ALP 12.7%|
|Kalkallo (Yuroke)||ALP 20.3%||ALP 20.0%|
|Kew||LIB 4.8%||LIB 4.9%|
|Keysborough||ALP 14.9%||Abolished seat|
|Kororoit||ALP 25.6%||ALP 24.9%|
|Lara||ALP 19.1%||ALP 19.1%|
|Laverton||New seat||ALP 23.4%|
|Lowan||NAT 23.5%||NAT 20.9%|
|Macedon||ALP 13.2%||ALP 13.2%|
|Malvern||LIB 6.1%||LIB 6.6%|
|Melbourne||GRN vs ALP 1.3%||GRN vs ALP 1.7%|
|Melton||ALP 4.3%||ALP 5.0%|
|Mildura||IND vs NAT 0.3%||IND vs NAT 0.3%|
|Monbulk||ALP 8.6%||ALP 9.0%|
|Morang (Mill Park)||ALP 24.9%||ALP 25.0%|
|Mordialloc||ALP 12.9%||ALP 13.5%|
|Mornington||LIB 5.0%||LIB 5.0%|
|Morwell||IND vs ALP 1.8%||IND vs ALP 1.7%|
|Mount Waverley||ALP 1.8%||Abolished seat|
|Mulgrave||ALP 12.7%||ALP 16.2%|
|Murray Plains||NAT 23.9%||NAT 24%|
|Narracan||LIB 7.3%||LIB 6.7%|
|Narre Warren North||ALP 9.8%||ALP 10.2%|
|Narre Warren South||ALP 6.9%||ALP 10.7%|
|Nepean||ALP 0.9%||ALP 0.6%|
|Niddrie||ALP 12.6%||ALP 12.7%|
|Northcote||ALP vs GRN 1.7%||ALP vs GRN 1.7%|
|Oakleigh||ALP 15.8%||ALP 16.1%|
|Ovens Valley||NAT 12.6%||NAT 12%|
|Pakenham||New seat||ALP 2.0%|
|Pascoe Vale||ALP 8.3%||ALP 15.6%|
|Point Cook (Altona)||ALP 14.6%||ALP 12.3%|
|Polwarth||LIB 5.4%||LIB 2.3%|
|Prahran||GRN vs LIB 7.5%||ALP 13.4%|
|Preston||ALP vs GRN 20.7%||ALP vs GRN 20.7%|
|Richmond||ALP vs GRN 5.5%||ALP vs GRN 5.8%|
|Ringwood||ALP 2.8%||ALP 3.7%|
|Ripon||LIB 0.02%||ALP 3.0%|
|Rowville||LIB 5.7%||LIB 4.9%|
|Sandringham||LIB 0.6%||LIB 0.4%|
|Shepparton||IND vs LIB 5.3%||IND vs LIB 5.3%|
|South Barwon||ALP 4.6%||ALP 4.1%|
|South-West Coast||LIB 2.3%||LIB 3.3%|
|St Albans||ALP 21.5%||ALP 22.4%|
|Sunbury||ALP 14.3%||ALP 14.6%|
|Sydenham||ALP 17.9%||ALP 17.9%|
|Tarneit||ALP 18%||ALP 17.9%|
|Thomastown||ALP 27.2%||ALP 27.4%|
|Warrandyte||LIB 3.9%||LIB 3.9%|
|Werribee||ALP 12.6%||ALP 13.6%|
|Williamstown||ALP 22.1%||ALP 18.7%|
|Yan Yean||ALP 17.0%||ALP 16.5%|
Primary votes for main parties
|Seat||ALP prim||LIB prim||NAT prim||GRN prim|
|Glen Waverley (Forest Hill)||41.5||48.8||8.4|
|Morang (Mill Park)||62.2||21.0||5.4|
|Narre Warren North||50.9||35.7||6.2|
|Narre Warren South||52.1||33.2||5.8|
|Point Cook (Altona)||49.7||24.2||7.9|
Legislative Council vote by region