Victorian state redistribution – margin estimates

4

I will firstly acknowledge that I am very late in publishing these figures. I’ve just finished moving house during the first two weeks of lockdown and it has pushed back my timelines.

Anyway, this post contains my estimates of the two-candidate-preferred margins, the primary vote for the main parties, and my estimate of the figures for the Legislative Council regions. In particular the Labor vote has changed significantly in the renamed North-Eastern Metropolitan region.

Antony Green has also published his estimated margins here. In most cases they are very similar, but I always like to have my own estimates, which I need in order to publish sub-electorate level voting figures for my election guides.

I’ve already summarised the changes here.

The seats of Bass and Bayswater have flipped from Labor to Liberal. Hastings, Ripon and Prahran have flipped to Labor. Meanwhile one Liberal seat and two Labor seats have been abolished, and replaced by three Labor seats. This means Labor has gone from 55 seats at the 2018 election to 57 notional seats.

I should particularly draw attention to Prahran. On the primary vote, the Greens have dropped into third place. If those numbers stayed the same, the seat would revert to a Labor vs Liberal contest. But of course that could well change, and the Greens are still well within reach of winning. The Liberal position has become a lot weaker against either Labor or the Greens. If the Liberal Party falls into third place then this margin becomes irrelevant, but I think the Labor vs Liberal margin is similar to the Labor vs Greens margin.

There are a number of other seats where the two-candidate-preferred count was a bit complicated. Voters from Prahran, which was Greens vs Liberal, have been shifted to Albert Park, Caulfield and Malvern, and I have treated the Greens votes as Labor votes in those seats.

In the seats of Mildura and Geelong, where an independent made the final count in 2018, I have ignored the small number of votes moved from neighbouring seats.

In Broadmeadows, Pascoe Vale and South Barwon, I have calculated a Labor vs Liberal count and have distributed Independent preferences between Labor and Liberal in the same proportion as was the difference between the 2PP and 2CP in 2018.

The last thing to note is the Legislative Council. The Eastern Metropolitan region has been renamed as North-Eastern Metropolitan region, with two seats being added from the Northern Metropolitan region.

The Labor vote in that region has increased from 33.6% to 38.8%. Two quotes is 33.3%, so this means Labor would now have a decent surplus that will influence who wins the fifth seat. The Greens vote also increased from 6.7% to 8.5%, with most of that coming from the others vote, which has dropped dramatically.

Labor’s vote has dropped slightly in the northern suburbs, with the Greens solidifying their vote further from 16.7% to 18.4%. That will make their seat extra safe but the Greens are far from winning a second.

The shifting of Essendon from the West to the North hurts the Greens in Western Metro, with their vote dropping from 8.7% to 8.1%. That will certainly hurt their efforts to win back the seat they held from 2006 to 2018.

Two-candidate-preferred margins

SeatOld marginNew margin
Albert Park ALP 13.1% ALP 9.2%
Ashwood (Burwood) ALP 3.3% ALP 2.3%
Bass ALP 2.4% LIB 2.3%
Bayswater ALP 0.4% LIB 1.0%
Bellarine ALP 11.5% ALP 11.4%
Benambra LIB 2.4% LIB 9.4%
Bendigo East ALP 12.1% ALP 12.1%
Bendigo West ALP 18.6% ALP 18.6%
Bentleigh ALP 11.9% ALP 11.3%
Berwick (Gembrook) LIB 0.8% LIB 2.1%
Box Hill ALP 2.1% ALP 2.9%
Brighton LIB 1.1% LIB 0.5%
Broadmeadows ALP 30.3% ALP 24.3%
Brunswick GRN vs ALP 0.6% GRN vs ALP 2.0%
Bulleen LIB 5.8% LIB 5.7%
Bundoora ALP 17.4% ALP 17.6%
Buninyong ALP 12.2% ALP 7.2%
Carrum ALP 11.9% ALP 12.2%
Caulfield LIB 0.3% LIB 0.6%
Clarinda ALP 17.4% ALP 14.9%
Cranbourne ALP 11% ALP 9.1%
Croydon LIB 2.1% LIB 0.9%
Dandenong ALP 23.9% ALP 23.5%
Eildon LIB 2.4% LIB 0.6%
Eltham ALP 9.1% ALP 8.3%
Essendon ALP 15.9% ALP 15.8%
Eureka (Wendouree) ALP 10.3% ALP 13.0%
Euroa NAT 15.4% NAT 16.0%
Evelyn LIB 2.6% LIB 1.6%
Ferntree Gully LIB 1.6% Abolished seat
Footscray ALP 28.1% ALP 29.1%
Frankston ALP 9.7% ALP 10.1%
Geelong ALP vs IND 6.2% ALP vs IND 6.1%
Gippsland East NAT 17.6% NAT 17.6%
Gippsland South NAT 15.3% NAT 13.9%
Glen Waverley (Forest Hill) LIB 1.2% LIB 1.5%
Greenvale New seat ALP 22.6%
Hastings LIB 1.1% ALP 0.4%
Hawthorn ALP 0.4% ALP 0.4%
Ivanhoe ALP 12.4% ALP 12.7%
Kalkallo (Yuroke) ALP 20.3% ALP 20.0%
Kew LIB 4.8% LIB 4.9%
Keysborough ALP 14.9% Abolished seat
Kororoit ALP 25.6% ALP 24.9%
Lara ALP 19.1% ALP 19.1%
Laverton New seat ALP 23.4%
Lowan NAT 23.5% NAT 20.9%
Macedon ALP 13.2% ALP 13.2%
Malvern LIB 6.1% LIB 6.6%
Melbourne GRN vs ALP 1.3% GRN vs ALP 1.7%
Melton ALP 4.3% ALP 5.0%
Mildura IND vs NAT 0.3% IND vs NAT 0.3%
Monbulk ALP 8.6% ALP 9.0%
Morang (Mill Park) ALP 24.9% ALP 25.0%
Mordialloc ALP 12.9% ALP 13.5%
Mornington LIB 5.0% LIB 5.0%
Morwell IND vs ALP 1.8% IND vs ALP 1.7%
Mount Waverley ALP 1.8% Abolished seat
Mulgrave ALP 12.7% ALP 16.2%
Murray Plains NAT 23.9% NAT 24%
Narracan LIB 7.3% LIB 6.7%
Narre Warren North ALP 9.8% ALP 10.2%
Narre Warren South ALP 6.9% ALP 10.7%
Nepean ALP 0.9% ALP 0.6%
Niddrie ALP 12.6% ALP 12.7%
Northcote ALP vs GRN 1.7% ALP vs GRN 1.7%
Oakleigh ALP 15.8% ALP 16.1%
Ovens Valley NAT 12.6% NAT 12%
Pakenham New seat ALP 2.0%
Pascoe Vale ALP 8.3% ALP 15.6%
Point Cook (Altona) ALP 14.6% ALP 12.3%
Polwarth LIB 5.4% LIB 2.3%
Prahran GRN vs LIB 7.5% ALP 13.4%
Preston ALP vs GRN 20.7% ALP vs GRN 20.7%
Richmond ALP vs GRN 5.5% ALP vs GRN 5.8%
Ringwood ALP 2.8% ALP 3.7%
Ripon LIB 0.02% ALP 3.0%
Rowville LIB 5.7% LIB 4.9%
Sandringham LIB 0.6% LIB 0.4%
Shepparton IND vs LIB 5.3% IND vs LIB 5.3%
South Barwon ALP 4.6% ALP 4.1%
South-West Coast LIB 2.3% LIB 3.3%
St Albans ALP 21.5% ALP 22.4%
Sunbury ALP 14.3% ALP 14.6%
Sydenham ALP 17.9% ALP 17.9%
Tarneit ALP 18% ALP 17.9%
Thomastown ALP 27.2% ALP 27.4%
Warrandyte LIB 3.9% LIB 3.9%
Werribee ALP 12.6% ALP 13.6%
Williamstown ALP 22.1% ALP 18.7%
Yan Yean ALP 17.0% ALP 16.5%

Primary votes for main parties

SeatALP primLIB primNAT primGRN prim
Albert Park40.434.816.7
Ashwood (Burwood)40.844.311.7
Bass36.345.45.6
Bayswater40.548.08.6
Bellarine49.735.69.1
Benambra17.740.13.5
Bendigo East50.320.915.98.0
Bendigo West53.527.113.1
Bentleigh49.433.68.2
Berwick (Gembrook)41.248.57.1
Box Hill40.544.313.6
Brighton32.444.814.9
Broadmeadows56.415.17.9
Brunswick38.67.842.7
Bulleen36.452.011.1
Bundoora56.728.47.4
Buninyong44.433.97.4
Carrum53.032.55.5
Caulfield33.746.614.6
Clarinda54.827.57.1
Cranbourne48.734.34.0
Croydon39.446.68.9
Dandenong64.522.57.0
Eildon37.046.511.0
Eltham49.937.710.4
Essendon46.227.516.8
Eureka (Wendouree)50.131.510.8
Euroa28.059.55.2
Evelyn40.748.110.0
Footscray54.417.320.1
Frankston46.332.67.6
Geelong40.920.39.2
Gippsland East21.756.76.2
Gippsland South29.23.756.59.6
Glen Waverley (Forest Hill)41.548.88.4
Greenvale60.024.27.0
Hastings38.544.810.3
Hawthorn32.844.017.7
Ivanhoe46.532.015.0
Kalkallo (Yuroke)59.225.35.9
Kew31.349.415.2
Kororoit63.021.18.3
Lara57.924.17.5
Laverton57.520.912.1
Lowan21.96.058.05.3
Macedon48.032.09.8
Malvern29.451.612.9
Melbourne35.217.438.8
Melton34.016.24.5
Mildura17.42.937.53.8
Monbulk42.336.916.6
Morang (Mill Park)62.221.05.4
Mordialloc50.931.07.5
Mornington34.350.69.8
Morwell34.212.310.73.6
Mulgrave59.228.46.5
Murray Plains19.460.34.2
Narracan35.751.16.1
Narre Warren North50.935.76.2
Narre Warren South52.133.25.8
Nepean37.944.211.0
Niddrie55.134.06.9
Northcote41.710.739.5
Oakleigh53.329.711.3
Ovens Valley20.81.942.14.8
Pakenham44.143.57.9
Pascoe Vale38.211.520.7
Point Cook (Altona)49.724.27.9
Polwarth31.545.910.5
Prahran33.828.828.2
Preston52.016.315.1
Richmond44.233.6
Ringwood42.543.613.4
Ripon42.137.34.7
Rowville36.150.49.7
Sandringham33.342.58.1
Shepparton11.626.613.02.4
South Barwon39.238.58.4
South-West Coast24.534.46.2
St Albans61.323.611.0
Sunbury58.633.67.7
Sydenham61.028.56.4
Tarneit56.725.97.7
Thomastown62.015.34.3
Warrandyte35.850.010.5
Werribee45.916.76.5
Williamstown50.120.313.2
Yan Yean55.326.51.45.6

Legislative Council vote by region

ALPLNPGRNOthers
RegionOldNewOldNewOldNewOldNew
Eastern Victoria37.033.536.133.99.06.917.925.7
North-Eastern Metropolitan33.638.834.133.76.78.525.619.0
Northern Metropolitan42.641.516.516.416.718.424.223.7
Northern Victoria31.831.331.231.66.66.630.430.5
South-Eastern Metropolitan49.949.029.029.65.65.515.515.9
Southern Metropolitan34.635.138.338.013.513.113.613.8
Western Metropolitan46.246.921.320.88.78.123.824.2
Western Victoria38.238.229.929.87.57.524.424.5
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4 COMMENTS

  1. Albert Park looks a lot safer than it probably is going forward, the 2018 swing blew the margin out a lot more than usual. Based on the new margin being 3.9% better for the Liberals, they would have won the seat in both 2010 and 2014 on these boundaries.

    Prahran on the other hand wouldn’t have been won by the Liberals since 1992 (and only very narrowly) on the proposed boundaries, it no longer becomes even remotely competitive for them so it’d be interesting to see how that impacts the chance of them dropping to third if they divert resources from it.

    Also, if I recall correctly, the Greens got the biggest share of the smaller parties’ preferences (mainly thanks to Animal Justice coming 4th) in Prahran so given there’s only 0.6% between the Greens and Liberals there, the Greens could possibly make the 2CP even on the primary votes above.

    Labor’s biggest threat in Prahran is still in the 3PP count. As long as they make the 2CP they comfortably beat either the Liberals on Greens preferences, or the Greens on Liberal preferences, but the 3PP race is the competitive one where realistically they could finish anywhere from 1st to 3rd because those new St Kilda booths could vote differently with a Greens incumbent in Prahran than they did with an ALP incumbent in Albert Park, and they do vote a lot more Greens in federal elections already.

    Also, while Brighton’s 2018 result was definitely an outlier, Labor should at least put some effort and a strong candidate into it next year unlike 2018…

  2. @Trent

    Do you think VIC ALP will make gains like the QLD and WA ALPs did next year? They’re going for a third term, and honestly, I can see it ending up like VIC 2006 as a whole (seats like Hawthorn/Box Hill should go back to the Liberals, but Labor should hold the southeastern bellwethers).

  3. Thats pretty much exactly what I think will happen too.

    I think 2018 was a high watermark, they’ll lose a bit of ground – in particular seats like Hawthorn – but should pretty comfortably hold the sandbelt and still win around 52-54 seats.

    They should go on the offensive though and make the Liberals have to defend seats like Brighton, Sandringham and Caulfield. I think the Liberals’ best case scenario is to win back some of the east and cut into the margins in the sandbelt and Albert Park to make them competitive in 2026.

    I don’t think Labor will gain any new seats except the notional gains from redistribution, but I think the Greens will hold Prahran (unless the Liberals drop to third) and possibly win Northcote back.

  4. I more or less agree with you (aside from Hastings being re-gained by the Liberals), also I can see the ALP member for Bass transferring to Pakenham.

    2026 will be a must-win for the Coalition.

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