WA federal redistribution finalised, in a sense

46

The Australian Electoral Commission has announced the final boundaries for Western Australia for the next federal election.

While they have announced what changes have been made to the draft boundaries, they have only provided this information through the use of words describing the changes. No maps, no data.

I’ve done my best to follow the AEC descriptions and attempted to make the changes to my map (downloadable from the maps page), and I’ve created a map (below) comparing the final boundaries as best I can determine to the draft boundaries and the 2019 boundaries.

Fourteen separate changes have been made to the draft boundaries. No changes were made to Fremantle and Perth. Changes to seven other seats involved no movements of electors, while the remaining six seats did have changes to their elector numbers.

Two of these changes involved the movement of whole LGAs. Easy enough to change, and does involve identifiable numbers of voters moving (even if Wiluna Shire contains less than 1000 people).

Eight other changes are described as “minor” and involving no elector movement. In one case I couldn’t work out which area was moving, and in a number of other cases I think I’ve got it right but I’m not sure. In some cases the change was to align the federal boundaries with the local government boundaries, but I can’t find any divergence between them, so they must be very minor indeed.

Then there are four others where the change has happened at the suburb level, either splitting a suburb along a major road (easy enough to map but sometimes not possible to split the population at the SA1 level) or merging a suburb (which did involve some SA1s that straddle the new boundary). In one case the description is consistent with moving the Brand-Canning border back to the 2019 boundary and thus leaving Brand unchanged from 2019, but I cannot be sure.

Bearing all this in mind, my margin estimates remain interim until the maps and data are released, which is scheduled for early August.

To give you an insight into my process, I’m currently starting to write my guides to the federal election, after finishing the maps and tables I’m planning to use for the guide. At the moment I am focusing on the four states and two territories not affected by redistributions, and I’ll come back to WA and Victorian seats later in the process. My new and improved systems mean I can recalculate all of my tables and charts quite easily once I have the new maps and new estimates of voter numbers in each seat.

I am partly holding back because I think there will be minor boundary differences I have missed, but I think any changes in voter numbers (which dictates my redistribution calculations) will be so small as to be unlikely to be detected at the level of 0.1%.

But finally, here are my estimates of the margin in each electorate, before and after the redstribution. I should note that some minor tweaking of my data means that the draft margin for Cowan and Hasluck has changed by 0.1% since my original margins were posted. These seats were not changed by the final announcement so there are no further changes.

Seat2019 marginDraft marginFinal margin
Brand ALP 6.7% ALP 6.7% ALP 6.7%
Burt ALP 5.0% ALP 5.4% ALP 5.5%
Canning LIB 11.6% LIB 11.3% LIB 11.5%
Cowan ALP 0.8% ALP 0.8% ALP 0.8%
Curtin LIB 14.3% LIB 13.9% LIB 13.9%
Durack LIB 14.8% LIB 13.5% LIB 13.5%
Forrest LIB 14.6% LIB 14.6% LIB 14.6%
Fremantle ALP 6.9% ALP 6.9% ALP 6.9%
Hasluck LIB 5.4% LIB 5.8% LIB 5.8%
Moore LIB 11.7% LIB 11.6% LIB 11.6%
O’Connor LIB 14.5% LIB 15.4% LIB 15.4%
Pearce LIB 7.5% LIB 5.2% LIB 5.2%
Perth ALP 4.9% ALP 3.2% ALP 3.2%
Swan LIB 2.7% LIB 3.2% LIB 3.2%
Tangney LIB 11.5% LIB 9.5% LIB 9.5%
Stirling LIB 5.6% AbolishedAbolished
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46 COMMENTS

  1. I’m struggling to understand something – despite a Liberal seat being removed the aggregate margins have moved towards Labor. Am I missing something – but I don’t see how this is possible?
    Movement to Liberal:
    Brand 0
    Burt 0
    Canning -0.1
    Cowan 0
    Curtin -0.4
    Durack -1.3
    Forrest 0
    Fremantle 0
    Hasluck 0.4
    Moore -0.1
    O’Conner 0.9
    Pearce -2.3
    Perth 1.7
    Swan 0.5
    Tangney -2

    Total -2.7 points to Liberal despite the removal of Stirling. If Stirling were 50/50 then I’d expect the above to be roughly 0. I realise different electorate sizes can cause some of the discrepancies but still it seems very counterintuitive for the removal of a Liberal seat to move the remaining seats in aggregate in Labor’s favour.

    Apologies if I’ve missed something basic.

  2. I can’t fully explain it but it depends on the relative position.

    For example, look at Pearce and Durack. About 20,000 votes were moved from Pearce to Durack, with a Labor 2PP of 36.6%. About 50,000 votes stayed in Pearce, with a Labor 2PP of 44%. Pearce also lost a lot of voters to Hasluck (44.3%) and a small number to O’Connor (31.9%). Pearce then gained 37k votes from Cowan at a Labor 2PP of 45.8%.

    Losing that big chunk of conservative votes to Durack has a big impact on Pearce’s margin, but doesn’t have the same impact on Durack.

    Durack retained about 70k votes worth 36.5% Labor 2PP, and lost 7000 votes to O’Connor on 23.3% 2PP. So gaining the 20k at 36.6% from Pearce doesn’t do much to the margin, and actually when you compare it to the votes lost to O’Connor is actually not as conservative.

    As another simplistic way to look at them, don’t look at the margin but instead look at the Labor 2PP % per seat. Pre-redistribution the median was 43.4% and the average was 44.4%. After the redistribution the median is 44.2% and the average is 44.6%.

  3. Ben,

    Stirling has a mixture of Liberal and Labor areas.

    The ‘Liberal bits’ of Stirling are essentially distributed into Moore, Curtin and Perth. However, Moore and Curtin are safe seats, so adding less-safe Liberal areas into them will cause their margin to decline on paper. You do see Perth’s Labor margin cut back a fair bit with gains of Liberal areas from Stirling.

    Cowan gain more of the ‘Labor bits’ of Stirling, but in turn it loses some of its existing Labor-leaning territory to Pearce. So Pearce’s margin is cut, but Cowan stays about the same.

    Tangney gains a more Labor-friendly area from Burt, so it’s safe Liberal margin declines. Whereas Burt is already a Labor seat, so losing this area has no effect on its margin.

  4. Your calculation can’t work. The only way this works in aggregate is if you use the vote margins, not the percents. If you add the 2PP vote leads for the 16 old electorates and subtract the 2PP vote leads for the 15 new electorates the values come up close to zero. That’s because the 2PP votes by electorate on old and new boundaries must add to the 2PP votes for the state, and therefore the Liberal state lead over Labor must equal the sum of the electorate lead. And they do for old and new boundaries so the net change in vote leads is zero.

    But you can’t do the same calculation using 2PP% margins. If you add the % margins on the old boundaries you get a different figure than if you add the % margins on the new boundaries, so your figure can only add to zero if the totals of the margins are the same for old and new boundaries.

  5. Thanks Ben and Antony. As I was typing I realised that looking at margins would make more sense than percentages. Still initially seems counterintuitive – but I guess if we were looking at vote margins rather than percentages in the column then it would seem less confusing.

  6. The section of Cowan transferred to Pearce is not Labor-leaning although Liberal margins are tight in parts of Wanneroo, Landsdale etc. However it is less strong for Liberal than the Shires gained by Durack.
    Cowan gains what were Stirling’s strong ALP boxes but also north Dianella and Balcatta/Stirling/Hamersley that were Liberal-voting in 2019.

  7. At the core of why the abolition of Stirling hasn’t helped the Libs in other seats is that electorates aren’t homogeneous.

    Stirling had a big section between the coast and the freeway including suburbs like Trigg, Karrinyup, Gwelup and parts of Doubleview and Scarborough that were strongly Liberal leaning – but not quite as much as the areas north or south of it. Those areas are now absorbed into even-safer Curtin and similarly voting Moore – having small and irrelevant ALP shifts in those seats. Those Liberal votes are now “going to waste” being dumped in an already safe seat rather than making an otherwise very marginal seat fairly secure like they were before.

    Of course, I don’t think anyone wants to predict what might happen in WA if a Fed election happened now.

  8. The polls are wrong. I predict if held today there will be no changes from the post-redistribution map.

    Wyatt holds Hasluck with a small swing against him.

    Porter is in serious danger in Pearce but should narrowly retain unless the environment changes (wouldn’t be surprise if this is the only ALP gain)

    Irons in Swan will likely be the top watched seat on election night however I can see him barely scraping it home again like he did last time.

    Perth should be a narrow Labor hold with Gorman.

    Cowan will be in dead heat like last election however Aly will likely do it again when Labor realises it needs to put resources into saving it’s own seats rather than trying to gain (People know how to tell the difference between State and Federal governments just look at QLD) The Libs will need a new candidate because Stewart is now a member of the LC.

    Don’t even think about Tangney and Moore being competitive with Albanese leading the ALP, It won’t happen unless they have Mark Mcgowan as federal leader. But Albanese has the worst possible appeal to the state, They could easily go backwards and leave seats.

    The other seats I never mentioned will stay with their respective parties with small swings one way or the other, WA isn’t going to swing much so sorry Andrew Probyn but the WA ”dream scenario” of the election hinging on the state late at night won’t happen unless something significantly changes between now and election day.

    COVID helped Mcgowan in WA, I see no reason why it won’t help Morrison. Mcgowan can campaign heavily for Albanese Labor at the Fed, but it won’t make a damn difference one way or the other because WA wants him, Not Albanese.

  9. I don’t know if this is entirely relevant to the apparent discrepancy you are observing in the numbers, but I’ll point it out anyway:

    Paradoxically, a transfer of electors from one district to another can lead to both districts swinging in the same direction.

    I’ll present a minimal example.

    Let’s say we have four areas – A, B, C, and D – each with equal numbers of electors at the last election. At the last election, the Liberal 2PPs were:
    • A: 50%
    • B: 60%
    • C: 70%
    • D: 80%

    At the last election, District X was comprised of areas A and B, and District Y comprised of C and D.

    From this, District X has Liberal 2PP of 55%, and Y has Liberal 2PP of 75%.

    Due to rapid population changes, a redistribution transfers area B from District X to District Y. So now X comprises only area A, and Y comprises areas B, C, and D.

    Post-redistribution, District X now has a Liberal 2PP of 50%, and District Y has a Liberal 2PP of 70%. Thus, both districts have drifted towards Labor despite the only change having been a transfer from one to the other.

  10. Thank you. Yes, this is exactly the type of scenario I realised was possible after Ben Raue and Antony Green pointed it out. This proves that type of analysis has to be done with vote margin rather than 2PP percentage. Although once done you want to look at 2PP percentage since that determines swing needed.

  11. “COVID helped Mcgowan in WA, I see no reason why it won’t help Morrison. ”

    The ALP will play heavily on the Feds support for Clive Palmer and his attempts to force the WA borders open (and notably right before Victoria’s long shutdown). They tried hard to backpedal, but failed – probably because by the time they stated they were pulling out of the case, their submission was already in place. There’s a real chance to play on WA parochiality here – the Federal Libs hate WA, so WA should hate them back. Never goes wrong as a strategy. And McGowan will be front, center (and back, left and right) of any Federal campaign in WA.

    This is a rare case where Federal Liberals truly f***ed up their state counterparts in WA – although Liza Harvey’s efforts in this area certainly didn’t help. There was a massive (and unusual) bleed from Federal politics into State, and it probably cost the state Libs another five or six percent, and thus a number of seats. It’s probably a good year for pork futures in WA though.

    So has WA finished punishing the Liberal Party? Who the hell knows?

  12. Having previously lived in the Western part of Stirling, and the area immediately north in Moore and later immediately south in Curtin at various points in my life this is the most interesting redistribution I’ve seen yet. I was pretty baffled looking at how Cowan’s margin hardly budged post-redistribution, though I think previous comments have explained it well enough.

    As for fed implications of the state last election, I’ll add my 2 cents. The March election by all metrics was a pro-McGowan swing, not a pro-Labor swing, but McGowan’s words will have weight, especially if, as Matt says, Federal Labor put McGowan front and center to highlight the federal governments short-lived backing of Palmer and do everything to link the state Liberals to the federal Liberals.

    I’ve seen this throughout my time in WA and NSW, and I imagine it’s similar elsewhere. People idolize their premiers much more than they idolize the federal government and whilst I don’t anticipate Labor winning the next election I also don’t anticipate a result close to the ones achieved by Palaszczuk, Adern, McGowan or Gutwein at the election. Anything Labor gain in WA (max Swan & Pearce most likely one of them), will likely be negated by Liberal gains elsewhere, thus returning an election result much like the previous two.

  13. Currently here is what I feel about the next federal election
    Starting point
    L/NP 75 (- Hughes, Stirling)
    ALP 69 (+Hawke)
    IND 5 (+Hughes, inc. Mayo)
    GRN 1
    KAP 1
    Changes:
    VIC Chisholm (ALP GAIN FROM LIB)
    NSW Gilmore (LIB GAIN FROM ALP) Hunter (NAT GAIN FROM ALP) Shortland (LIB GAIN FROM ALP) Paterson (LIB GAIN FROM ALP) Macquarie (LIB GAIN FROM ALP) Dobell (LIB GAIN FROM ALP) Hughes (LIB GAIN FROM IND)
    QLD Blair (LNP GAIN FROM ALP) Longman (ALP GAIN FROM LNP)
    WA Swan (ALP GAIN FROM LIB)
    TOTAL SEATS
    L/NP 80
    ALP 65
    IND 4 (inc. Mayo)
    GRN 1
    KAP 1

  14. @Marko

    I agree with your assessment of Chisholm, Longman, and Swan. Curious to know your reasoning behind the Coalition gains. I can see Labor performing poorly in NSW. Given the seats you have flagged, I take it you think Labor still has more to lose beyond 2019 in regional areas. (Why is Eden-Monaro not one of them?)

  15. Eden-Monaro is not one of them as Labor has a sophomore incumbent (popular local mayor) now. The reasoning behind the coalition gains in the Newcastle/Hunter region is poll reports ( I know seat polling+dated info) is the following
    https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/01/20/essential-research/
    The other gains are just due to the fact sitting state governments have been rewarded during the COVID pandemic and these seats are very marginal. I have Gilmore on this list due to the fact that there is a large retired population here which may swing to the Libs plus there will not be a 3 way split in the right-wing vote

  16. Marko I would love to know your reasoning behind Blair but have Longman and Lilley going Labor. This seat is mostly populated in Ipswich so unless there is a huge shift don’t expect it to flip. I think the LNP could gain Blair but not without Lilley and holding Longman.

    I don’t see Shortland being a Liberal win without Eden Monaro and a batch of other marginals falling. Shortland may fall if you see a 1975 result but it still has 4% to go and it is possible that the swing from the last election was the peak of Liberal support in this area.

    I agree the coalition will win but it will be much worse than your prediction. The only seat I agree Labor could gain is Chisholm and MAYBE Swan but that is about it. But remember Hannah Beazley is a state MP now so without her they might find it harder to win the seat (She was the best candidate the ALP could choose due to the fact her father represented the seat before ‘96)

    Here is what I have the Coalition gaining: Macquarie,Lilley,Eden Monaro,Blair,Dobell,Moreton,Gilmore,Greenway,Hunter,Solomon,Parramatta,Richmond,Shortland,Paterson,Lyons,Lingiari and Warringah (from IND) and recover Hughes

    Outside chance of Werriwa (Sorry Gough) and Macarthur if the swing is any worse in NSW. NSW and QLD and the NT is where the swing will be on, little changes in the other states.

    Labor to gain Chisholm

    So the new composition will be as follows (This assumes Labor holds Werriwa which is Marginally Labor and holds Macarthur which might be inflated)

    92 Coalition
    53 ALP
    5 others

  17. In relation to EM falling vs Shortland and Paterson look at my previous post (especially the article)
    Blair is because the local state MP Deb Frecklington could run there and the seat has some rural character so will hence be better for the LNP
    Lilley will not fall as there will be a sophomore surge there to Anika Wells
    Longman will go ALP as it is in an area which swung massively at the state election.
    I feel with the botched vaccine rollout some off the other seats which you have swinging to the Libs will not quite flip such as Moreton, Warringah, Lilley, Werriwa and Macarthur
    Richmond and Lyons are compete wild cards. The Greens hope to compete in the former.
    NT is a wild card as Labor did well at state a state level but I agree they may lose Lingiari and even Solomon on a bad night

  18. I would be interested to know what role South Australia will play (to be honest a small one). For the house, I see Boothby as the only seat possibly in play. It covers marginal areas and since it is one of the few battlegrounds in what is a usually quiet state, I expect both parties to throw most of their resources here. I would be interested to know how important Nicole Flint’s retirement will be in affecting the margin.

    I probably expect Rex Patrick and Stirling Griff’s seats to be lost – one to the Liberals and one to probably the Greens. Despite Centre Alliance weakening, I am unsure whether Rebekha Sharkie will lose her seat of Mayo. Mayo is an independent-tinged seat and she will probably run her campaign like one. Nonetheless, a poll from a few months ago suggested a TPP of 51-49 to Sharkie with her primary vote down.

  19. Re Wa….Julie bishop stopped a projected labor swing….now with alp 70/30 vote at state govt. Level….. There is more to stop. Now of course alp would not get 70% at fed level but maybe closer to 50/50 which would give plus 2 to 3 seats also less state liberal mps to help their federal colleagues

  20. Current Senate Prediction
    NSW LIB/NAT 3 ALP 3
    VIC LIB/NAT 3 ALP 2 GRN 1
    QLD LNP 3 ALP 2 who knows 1 ( could be Hanson, 4th LNP, a Green or some other right winger)
    SA LIB 3 ALP 2 GRN 1
    WA LIB 3 ALP 2 GRN 1
    TAS LIB 3 ALP 2 GRN 1 (nearly 2-3-1)
    ACT ALP 1 LIB 1 (nearly a GRN rather than a liberal)
    NT ALP 1 CLP 1
    COALITION 37
    PHON 1
    JLN 1
    ? 1
    GRN 10
    ALP 26

  21. the election guesses project a 6 seat loss to the alp in nsw and 2019 status quo in qld………. re Blair…. the seat contains most of ipswich and very little of the state seaT of Nananango… no way deb F….. will contest…. I dont think any of this will happen

  22. I think Queensland will be much like Western Australia last federal election, lots of hype for either side, but nothing substantial eventuating for either, I anticipate marginal Labor seats like Lilley returning to the fold, but nothing flipping.

    New South Wales will be where most, if not all, of the coalition gains occur. Macquarie and Gilmore are likely to go blue, not sure if I agree with the consensus on Hunter or Eden-Monaro, I think Labor will hang on in both. Paterson and Shortland are wait and see, but lean Lib. (I include Hughes on the Liberal count already).

    As for other states, Labor gain 1-2 in WA, 1-2 in VIC (Chisholm and an outside chance in La Trobe), 0-1 in SA and 0-1 in TAS (Bass is very much a maybe).

    Greens stay stagnant in the lower house, expanding to 11 in the upper house, with Patrick/Griff being wiped out and Labor & The Greens collectively getting 38, matched by One Nation getting 2, Lambie staying on and 36 LNP.

    End result is Labor gaining 3-5, The Coalition gaining 2-4, 6 on the crossbench (Stegall, Sharkie, Haines, Bandt, Katter & Wilke all get re-elected, losing Kelly). Tied senate (ALP + GRN = 38, LNP + ONP + JQL = 38), with the most likely outcome being a parliament as dysfunctional as the last few months of the 45th parliament, but instead for 3 years.

    It’s not worth jumping the gun just yet, things can always change (We all knew McGowan was going to be re-elected from early 2020 onwards, but the margin only became apparent to most in the weeks just before the election). I don’t think there’s a mood for change, nor a very strong pro-Federal Liberal mood in the country either. Crisis mentality worked for QLD Labor, NZ Labour, WA Labor and the TAS Liberals, but it’s starting to wear off as we’re (hopefully) in the tail end of the pandemic and the election is at most 11 months away.

  23. There are 76 senate seats so there cannot be LAB+GRN=38 LNP=36 and PHON+JLN=3
    Also Labor and the Coalition cannot both gain seats in the lower house with 6 crossbenchers.

  24. I think Porter has an uphill battle in Pierce.

    Swan could fall to the ALP.

    The ALP is likely to retain Cowan.

    Hasluck is a possible but not probable gain for the ALP.

    I don`t think any other WA HoR seats will change hands.

  25. TOM “s wa assessment is reasonable…. But. Will ken wyatt retire?(Hasluck) labors qld vote was very bad in 2019…..I think they can only improve… So possible gains there

  26. Will they Mick? Because so far Albanese has shown but nothing to be incompetent and more left-wing than Shortern. Not a way to win votes up here in QLD. I live here and I can tell you most people here are not pleased with the direction with federal Labor

    People don’t like being told what to do by the feds especially with things like Adani. and negative gearing and franking credits were the biggest factors up here. I predict the LNP will get a TPP with over 60% at this stage, The polls are wrong because didn’t the polls show 50-50 on election day in QLD? We all know how that turned out.

    Here in Petrie you can expect a 5+ TPP swing to Luke Howarth making it a very safe LNP seat and I don’t expect Labor to ever be competitive in these former marginals again unless they return to the centre, Jim Chalmers would probably be the person to do that. Whitlam did poor in QLD and he was a Leftie from Sydney like Albanese and Plibersek. No chance.

  27. For what it’s worth, I think we’ll see a swing overall to Labor in QLD. However, the Coalition could yet increase their seat tally there if they target and snatch the right seats…Lilley and Blair first and foremost.

    As others have said, the big beast this time around is NSW; I think Labor are in heaps of trouble. Forget gains, just talking targets – there at least least ~ 10 seats where Labor are on the defensive, especially in ancestrally rock-solid seats which have been drifting in recent years (Paterson, Shortland, Hunter) but also in more traditional marginals (Eden-Monaro, Parramatta, Greenway, Macquarie, Dobell, Gilmore).

    In 2019 the Coalition didn’t get much bang for their buck with their statewide vote to seat ratio. I’d be interested to see if it’s any different this time. If so, gains in NSW could more than offset losses in other states, particularly WA.

  28. 4 seats for the LNP 1 for the ALP and the other one could be any 3rd party (Greens or One Nation)

    If the ALP dump Albanese and recover their standing significantly or the LNP shoot themselves then maybe the the ALP could win 2 or 3 seats but again I don’t think that will happen.

  29. I wonder which Liberal MP is gonna lose the game of musical chairs in northern Perth. Vince Connelly is the newest and it’s his seat that was abolished, but Porter is obviously damaged goods. He grew up in the western suburbs, represented Bateman (southern burbs) in state politics, and more recently has been based in Ellenbrook (NE burbs, now moved to Hasluck), so he can’t really plead any kind of attachment to where Pearce now is. Maybe the Libs can convince Porter to go quietly and Connelly gets Pearce? It’d be easier than one of them trying to win Cowan or Perth off Labor.

  30. https://www.tallyroom.com.au/42004/comment-page-1/#comment-753209

    Albanese has been an insipid and uninspiring leader, particularly prior to this year. On economic policy at least, he has moved the ALP to the right compared with where it was under Shorten. The franking credits mess (a poorly though through policy that targeted dividend imputation from the wrong end) has put the ALP off franking credit reform and taken negative gearing reform with it. The ALP is not taking either as policy to the election and is extremely unlikely to implement them if elected.

    Significant measures to increase the reliability of polls have been implemented.

    There will probably be a small swing back to the ALP in Queensland, 2019 was a bad election for them in Queensland, like 2004 was. Clive Palmer has likely discredited himself with many voters with his anti-border closure court case and so if he runs again, he will get fewer votes and have less influence over the election overall compared with last time.

    Chalmers would probably do better in Queensland than Albanese, as far as I can tell. He probably should have run for leader after the defeat, he might actually have won.

    Whitlam was from the Right wing of the ALP (particularly on economics) and was loathed by much of the left, for being too right-wing, until the Dismissal. He was however more socially liberal/progressive, in line with a general shift of much of society to a more socially liberal/progressive position, which cost the ALP votes in some of the more socially conservative parts of the working class, which is a significant demographic in Queensland.

  31. In the Senate in Queensland the LNP is guaranteed a minimum of 2 seats and the ALP a minimum of 1. The other 3 seats are a 4-way race between Green 1, ALP 2, LNP 3 and PHON1. Given the likely improvement of the ALP vote, ALP 2 is likely (but by no means certain) to get up. The Green is also likely (but by no means certain) to get up, although it could be at the expense of the ALP. The final seat will likely (but by no means certainly) be a battle between PHON and LNP 3. The LNP will not get 4 seats as last time was a good election for them and they only relatively narrowly managed their 3rd seat and they would have to increase their vote by most of a quota to win a 4th seat.

  32. The Greens have so far not elected a Senator in particularly good elections for either the Coalition (2004 and 2013) or the ALP (2007), while managing to win in a good Coalition year in 2019 (likely at the expense of the 2nd ALP). In a moderate election for both the Coalition and ALP, 2 ALP and 1 Green is more likely than not.

    In the Senate, only the eponymous parties (partly except PHON), micro parties and independents are hugely personality dependent. The Greens, like the ALP and Coalition (and a lesser extent PHON), have party support bigger than individual candidates/parliamentarians.

  33. From my understanding the senate in QLD 2019 ( Labor 2 vs Green) was very close and could have come down to the following three factors in decreasing order of influence,
    1. The ‘climate change vote’ in urban Brisbane
    2. The fact the Greens had an incumbent senator
    3. The fact that the competing Labor candidate voted no to gay marriage.
    None of these factors will be as present this time around.

  34. The race for the final 3 places between 3rd LNP , the Green and 2nd ALP was quite close. There was only a ~4% difference between 3rd LNP and 2nd ALP (with the Green only 1.3% behind 3rd LNP) when 3rd LNP was elected, meaning a net ~2% swing on preferences from the LNP to the ALP would mean 2 ALP, 1, Green, 1 PHON, 2 LNP.

  35. Perhaps we could all remember poets McCartney & Lennon, when we look at the poor hapless Albo !?

    Lyrics
    He’s a real nowhere man
    Sitting in his nowhere land
    Making all his nowhere plans for nobody
    Doesn’t have a point of view
    Knows not where he’s going to
    Isn’t he a bit like you and me?
    Nowhere man please listen
    You don’t know what you’re missing
    Nowhere man, the world is at your command
    He’s as blind as he can be
    Just sees what he wants to see
    Nowhere man, can you see me at all
    Nowhere man don’t worry
    Take your time, don’t hurry
    Leave it all ’til somebody else
    Lends you a hand
    Ah, la, la, la, la
    Doesn’t have a point of view
    Knows not where he’s going to
    Isn’t he a bit like you and me?
    Nowhere man please listen
    You don’t know what you’re missing
    Nowhere man, The world is at your command
    Ah, la, la, la, la
    He’s a real nowhere man
    Sitting in his nowhere land
    Making all his nowhere plans for nobody
    Making all his nowhere plans for nobody
    Making all his nowhere plans for nobody
    Source: LyricFind
    Songwriters: John Lennon / Paul McCartney
    Nowhere Man lyrics © Sony/ATV Music Publishing LLC

  36. If i were a “true believer” & had given Labor my vote in 2019 how would i feel about being offered “Nowhere man” or as Paul Murray refers (to Albanese) as “Each way Albo” ?.

    Would i be inspired to offer another 3 years of allegiance (to Labor) ?. Would my fear of whatever, or antipathy toward the PM, & govt compel me to continue with or follow,”Nowhere man” ?. In short would i be angry, or just feel disillusioned, depressed & hopeless ?
    In short
    will we all be voting FOR, or AGAINST, what, or Whomever !?

  37. I don’t even think Labor will hold in in WA with Albanese. He needs to go. It isn’t about voting for something anymore but rather voting against something and that is exactly what I intend to do (Vote against Labor)

    Didn’t Albanese support the mining tax which was absolutely hated in WA? This is a pro-mining just look at Kalgoorlie.

    Cowan and Perth are certainly vulnerable. and don’t count at Brand or Fremantle either if it gets bad for Labor. there really isn’t any safe seat in WA for Labor there was speculation in 2013 that Labor could have lost ALL of their seats in WA. It didn’t happen but you wonder what could have happened if Labor had kept in Gillard.

    Allot of people seem to think Albanese gains ground in QLD and WA. What basis is this on? Polls? aren’t these the same polls that had Labor gaining ground last time in the states? didn’t happen at all. Labor didn’t gain a single seat in either state. Albanese will be trashed at the next election . unfortunately for Labor they will be the ones picking up the pieces after the next election if they don’t replace their bland and uninspiring leader soon.

  38. Daniel -I really think you’re off the money there. Labor is running a decentralised campaign specialised to each state; I think it’s likely we will see Labor pick up seats like Longman, Dickson, Bowman & potentially some northern Queensland seats, maybe even seats like Ryan.

    I think your judgement is more so clouded by your personal distaste for Albo, which is fine – you don’t have to like him. But I think it’s pretty likely for Labor to pick up a decent number of seats in QLD. Labor has learnt & readjusted since 2019, and to be honest, will not be campaigning on hot button topics like franking credits. It’ll be a clean, thought out and targeted campaign.

  39. Also the Beatles talked about being old at 64 in one of their songs but 64 is not old… Dedicate nowhere man to Morrison

  40. Bowman will NOT go red. I know the incumbent is retiring in bad circumstances for the LNP but the seat has a margin of 10 points. It was still blue in 2007.

  41. Marko that was only by a razor thin 70 votes or so I think it was (closest in the country) . And the ABC called the seat for Labor on election night but postals flipped it (along with McEwen and Dickson) But the LNP will hold regardless because Labor is not very popular at the moment.

    If Labor is to pickup Bowman they need to run an honest professional targeted clear cut campaign like they did in 2007 which they haven’t done since then.

    And has Labor learnt? Albanese is to the left of the party and is strongly backed by the unions. And considering his hostile position on Coal mining and Adani he is not winning seats back in Northern QLD. the only seat outside of SEQLD the ALP could gain is Leichhardt but nothing else.

    Ryan is more marginal than Petrie,Bonner,Forde,Capricornia,Flynn,Herbert and Dawson however this is a city seat, It didn’t move much because Jane Prentices sacking but also the fact Morrison didn’t fit as well in that electorate but now you will have an incumbent in that seat so Labor’s chance of picking up Ryan is so far gone. Unless you bring in Jim Chalmers.

    I think you will find if an election was held today Labor would gain seats in QLD (Like they would have done in April 2019) however when the campaign is on most people will switch back to the LNP or decide on polling day or the very last minute.

    Why isn’t Labor announcing candidates in Petrie,Longman,Bonner or Brisbane yet? Lack of confidence? Petrie won’t flip or even come close if they choose the same candidate as last time because the candidate was associated with the Mayor who was accused of corruption, that hurt her.

    Jackie Trad would be trounced in Longman because she is to the left of the party and not forgetting her controversies about that school principal. Susan Lamb is the best candidate to take on Terry Young but she still wouldn’t win because Terry Young is quite popular I hear.

    Bonner won’t flip as long as Ross Vasta is around he is invincible outside of Kevin ’07.
    Brisbane won’t flip because Trevor Evans is a moderate and quite popular.
    Forde won’t flip because even Peter Beattie couldn’t win
    Herbert won’t because of Adani

    I could go on and on but the post would become way too long but you get my point that the ALP doesn’t have an easy path at gaining any seats in QLD. almost all QLD marginals go with government so unless the government changes expect little to no flips.

  42. Daniel
    Congratulations on a splendid, impressive, & highly meritorious evolution. Whilst I’ve many reservations about the extent, & intensity of your predictions. i do applaud the sincere & thoughtful disgust, at what is being “offered” to our country, & our people . Really superb !!.

    Unfortunately Albo is the effect, not the cause of Labor’s issues. The govt is so disappointing mainly because there is no (plausible) alternative govt.Therein essence, is our failure. Our failure to demand what is required. Labor thinks its purpose is to be an OPPOSITION ie committed to oppose. IN FACT is true purpose is to support better governance through communication, negotiation, & accomodation. That is what mature intellects do..!

    Labor continues to fail to challenge the govt. So if anyone wants to pour shit on the govt,(& the PM), then by all means (knock yourself out)!
    However having a manager who is no( true) leader is a choice determined by a lack of “alternatus” (alternative ). Blindly Enabled by a negligent, self absorbed, & indulgent media. Whose purpose was to hold ALL to account. If the media did their job, maybe politicians would be less distracted from theirs !? Perhaps politicians might be less inclined to indulge in the metaphorical pursuit of whoring in the media brothel !?

    There is little in current politics (on all sides), other than the grandiose, posturing, pretence of activity, masquerading as action. WHO will truly serve our country & its people ?

  43. @ Declan Smith
    Please tell me something,…. anything that Labor have learned in the past 15 years !?.

    I must have missed it…..! From where i sit they couldn’t find it with both hands.!!
    cheers WD

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