6:13pm – Okay I am now signing off.
As previously discussed, every seat has stayed in the hands of the party that already held it. The Liberal seat of Stirling has been abolished and the Labor seat of Hawke has been created with a 10.2% margin.
Apart from the seats created or abolished, the biggest changes were in Hotham and Bruce in south-eastern Melbourne. Labor’s margin in Hotham increased from 5.9% to 11.3%, while in neighbouring Bruce it declined from 14.2% to 7.4%. The Labor margin in Fraser increased by 3.9% from 14.2% to 18.1% and the Liberal margin in Christian Porter’s seat of Pearce declined from 7.5% to 5.2%. No other seat shifted by more than 2%.
Overall you’d be pleased with this result if you were Labor.
I’ll take some time to make the new boundary files before returning with more analysis.
6:00pm – Okay all the data problems appear to be fixed now. I will update my estimates shortly, but it looks like the margin in Hawke is back to 10.2%.
I will be spending the next week or so producing maps for both Victoria and Western Australia and I will return at the end of that process with more discussion about what the actual changes are, rather than just the margins. Thanks for joining me on this messy trip.
4:28pm – It appears that the La Trobe SA1s (and mostly if not entirely just La Trobe) are based on the 2011 census, not 2016. But then there is also some mysterious problem with Ballarat. Right now I’m thinking of switching back to the non-AEC data source which, while not perfectly, largely made sense and added up to roughly the right number of voters. Hmmm.
3:54pm – There’s something weird going on with the data which means that all of old McEwen is being transferred into Hawke. I haven’t quite gotten to the bottom of it but Antony has not posted margins for those two seats so I suspect there is something weird with the AEC’s data.
2:54pm – I’m going to take a short break and then come back to continue summarising the changes.
2:50pm – Margins and vote shares for Victoria have been updated based on official AEC data now.
The other changes have mostly stayed the same but my estimate for Hawke has now dropped from 10.2% to 5%.
2:13pm – No seats have changed hands.
The new seat of Hawke is a Labor seat with a notional margin of 10.2%.
The Labor margin in Hotham has expanded from 5.9% to 11.3%, while the Labor margin in Fraser has expanded from 14.2% to 18%.
Labor has done worse in Bruce, where their margin has been slashed from 14.2% to 7.4%.
That’s about it for significant changes.
2:11pm – And here are the estimated margins.
|Seat||Old margin||New margin|
|Aston||LIB 10.1%||LIB 10.1%|
|Ballarat||ALP 11%||ALP 10.1%|
|Bendigo||ALP 9%||ALP 8.9%|
|Bruce||ALP 14.2%||ALP 7.4%|
|Calwell||ALP 18.8%||ALP 19.6%|
|Casey||LIB 4.6%||LIB 4.6%|
|Chisholm||LIB 0.6%||LIB 0.2%|
|Cooper||ALP vs GRN 14.6%||ALP vs GRN 14.8%|
|Corio||ALP 10.3%||ALP 10.3%|
|Deakin||LIB 4.8%||LIB 4.7%|
|Dunkley||ALP 2.7%||ALP 2.7%|
|Flinders||LIB 5.6%||LIB 5.6%|
|Fraser||ALP 14.2%||ALP 18.1%|
|Gellibrand||ALP 14.8%||ALP 13%|
|Gippsland||NAT 16.7%||NAT 16.7%|
|Goldstein||LIB 7.8%||LIB 7.8%|
|Gorton||ALP 15.4%||ALP 14.2%|
|Hawke||New seat||ALP 10.3%|
|Higgins||LIB 3.9%||LIB 3.7%|
|Holt||ALP 8.7%||ALP 8.5%|
|Hotham||ALP 5.9%||ALP 11.3%|
|Indi||IND vs LIB 1.4%||IND vs LIB 1.4%|
|Isaacs||ALP 6.4%||ALP 6.2%|
|Jagajaga||ALP 6.6%||ALP 5.9%|
|Kooyong||LIB vs GRN 5.7%||LIB vs GRN 5.6%|
|La Trobe||LIB 4.5%||LIB 5%|
|Lalor||ALP 12.4%||ALP 12.4%|
|Macnamara||ALP 6.2%||ALP 6.3%|
|Mallee||NAT 16.2%||NAT 15.7%|
|Maribyrnong||ALP 11.2%||ALP 10.6%|
|McEwen||ALP 5%||ALP 5.3%|
|Melbourne||GRN vs LIB 21.8%||GRN vs LIB 21.8%|
|Menzies||LIB 7.5%||LIB 7%|
|Monash||LIB 7.4%||LIB 6.9%|
|Nicholls||NAT 20%||NAT 20%|
|Scullin||ALP 21.7%||ALP 21.7%|
|Tucker (Corangamite)||ALP 1.1%||ALP 1.1%|
|Wannon||LIB 10.4%||LIB 10.2%|
|Wills||ALP vs GRN 8.2%||ALP vs GRN 8.5%|
2:01pm – Thanks to Shen Black, who has made his own estimates of transferred SA1s in Victoria, I have been able to calculate vote shares. Margins will be on their way shortly.
Worth noting that the gap between Labor and the Greens in Macnamara has narrowed from 7.5% to 4.9%. Not as dramatic as expected.
|Seat||ALP 2PP||LNP 2PP||ALP prim||LNP prim||GRN prim|
1:35pm – The AEC had proposed to rename Corangamite as Cox in the previous redistribution, but cancelled those plans in the final decision. Part of the motivation was that the seat has moved further away from the Lake Corangamite area and close to Geelong. The AEC normally avoids renaming federation electorates, but had decided that Corangamite no longer represented the area referred to in the name.
It appears they have decided to have a second go with Tucker, and this version of Corangamite/Tucker has moved even close to Geelong, with Wannon taking in towns as close as Anglesea and Winchelsea.
1:33pm – As mentioned before, there has been significant population transfer between Higgins and Macnamara in the inner south-east. Beyond that the changes all appear relatively modest, with no great movements of seats.
1:31pm – Looking at the Melbourne area, the seat of Fraser has been pulled closer to the city, pushing Maribyrnong out of the City of Maribyrnong and further into the north-west.
The new seat of Hawke has been created on the north-western fringe of Melbourne, covering Sunbury, Melton, Bacchus Marsh and Ballan. This has had significant knock-on effects throughout the western suburbs.
1:25pm – Bennee in comments has pointed out that the booths transferred from Macnamara into Higgins are much better for Labor relative to the Greens, and the booths transferred in the opposite direction are much better for Labor. This might make Macnamara a notional Greens seat.
1:20pm – Alright it seems like neither the Parliamentary Library nor Antony Green have the SA1 figures for Victoria so I will focus on describing the changes until we get that data.
1:18pm – I’m not entirely sure how you can have only four seats shift towards the Liberal Party (with three shifting significantly to Labor) while a Liberal seat is abolished but Antony’s calculations look the same as mine. Anyone have any theories?
1:16pm – Here are the links to the maps at the AEC:
1:12pm – The AEC website is lacking the SA1-level data for Victoria which will prevent me from calculating vote shares and margins. If you find it, shout out.
12:58pm – I’m going to take a short break then be back with Victoria.
12:57pm – The main changes are in the Liberal seats of Pearce, Tangney and Durack, where the margin has shrunk by 2.3%, 1.9% and 1.3% respectively, and in Perth where Labor’s margin has shrunk by 1.7%.
12:56pm – And here is a comparison of the WA margins before and after the redistribution:
|Seat||Old margin||New margin|
|Brand||ALP 6.7%||ALP 6.7%|
|Burt||ALP 5%||ALP 5.4%|
|Canning||LIB 11.6%||LIB 11.3%|
|Cowan||ALP 0.8%||ALP 0.9%|
|Curtin||LIB 14.3%||LIB 14%|
|Durack||LIB 14.8%||LIB 13.5%|
|Forrest||LIB 14.6%||LIB 14.6%|
|Fremantle||ALP 6.9%||ALP 6.9%|
|Hasluck||LIB 5.4%||LIB 5.9%|
|Moore||LIB 11.7%||LIB 11.6%|
|O’Connor||LIB 14.5%||LIB 15.4%|
|Pearce||LIB 7.5%||LIB 5.2%|
|Perth||ALP 4.9%||ALP 3.2%|
|Swan||LIB 2.7%||LIB 3.2%|
|Tangney||LIB 11.5%||LIB 9.5%|
12:49pm – Here’s my estimates of the vote share for each party in Western Australia’s 15 new electorates:
|Seat||ALP 2PP||LNP 2PP||ALP prim||LNP prim||GRN prim|
12:23pm – I’ll go quiet for a bit now while I compile the data to calculate the margins.
12:22pm – Every seat in Western Australia will be redrawn. The AEC specifically mentioned the expansion of Pearce into rural areas further north.
12:21pm – The AEC has proposed to abolish the Western Australian seat of Stirling, and has changed the basis for the naming of the seat of Canning to include Sadie Miriam Canning, Western Australia’s first Indigenous nurse. The seat is already named after Alfred Canning, an early Australian surveyor. It’s not clear to me if there are links between the two.
12:17pm – A new Victorian seat of Hawke has been created, named after Bob Hawke.
29 out of 38 current Victorian electoral boundaries have been modified. I think this means that nine other seats have been left unchanged (although it’s possible they mean that 29 of the new seats are newly drawn, and ten left unchanged).
The seat of Corangamite has been renamed Tucker, after Margaret Tucker, a founding member of the Australian Aborigines League.
12:13pm – The draft electoral boundaries for Victoria and Western Australia for the next federal redistribution have just been released. I’ll be liveblogging a summary of the changes as well as estimates of the vote share in the new electorates.
The new boundaries are required due to Victoria gaining a 39th electorate, and Western Australia losing one of their 16 electorates.