10:14 – It’s looking a decent-sized swing to the Nationals on the two-candidate-preferred vote. The existing margin was 2.6%, but it’s looking like the new margin will be something like 7%, bearing in mind that a lot of pre-poll votes are yet to report.
I’ve broken down the booth results kindly compiled by William Bowe, into the same geographic categories I used in my pre-election guide (mostly following local government boundaries).
The Nationals two-candidate-preferred swings by area are:
- Dungog – 13.2%
- Gloucester-Stroud – 10.3%
- Liverpool Plains – 3.8%
- Muswellbrook – 10.1% to Labor
- Singleton – 8.2%
- Upper Hunter – 1.1% to Labor
And with that I’m finished for the night. Thanks everyone for joining in. I’m now going to go dark for a little while as I prepare for the federal election, before returning with extensive coverage of the NSW local government elections.
10:01 – And here is a map showing the primary vote for the five top-polling candidates.
9:36 – Sorry I’ve been quiet for a while but now I’ve got a map showing the two-candidate-preferred results and swings by booth for the election-day vote.
Muswellbrook acted very differently to the rest of the seat, with Labor gaining large swings across that council area. Labor also had slight gains in Scone, while the Nationals went up across the east of the council area.
8:37 – We are waiting for a handful of election-day booths to report their preference counts, but overall it looks like big swings to the Nationals in the Dungog and Gloucester-Stroud areas, big swings to Labor in the Muswellbrook area, and relatively smaller swings in the other areas, but they also favour the Nationals in the Liverpool Plains and Singleton areas.
7:49 – I will do a full map later tonight and I’ll include a breakdown of the vote by the same sub-areas I included in my pre-election guide, but as a quick preview, the One Nation vote is highest in Singleton (18%), while the Shooters vote is much more evenly distributed. At the moment the swings to the Nationals by region all look quite large at the moment but I think they’ll shrink once the big town booths report.
7:41 – The overall two-candidate-preferred swing has been alternating between Labor and the Nationals but either way it is slight. The current Poll Bludger projection has the Nats up by 0.5%.
7:28 – The primary vote gap between the major parties is growing, with the Nationals up to 34.7% and Labor down to 18.9%. That’s just seven percentage points ahead of the Shooters on 11.9%, but that’s probably still too much for the Shooters to close.
7:17 – By the way, the best place to see the results is at the Poll Bludger results tool.
7:16 – We’ve now got two-candidate-preferred counts from seven booths, overall the Nationals are up 1.3%. About two thirds of all preferences from candidates other than Nationals or Labor are exhausting. On those numbers it looks like the Nationals will win, but I wouldn’t call anything yet.
6:57 – It’s hard to see any of the independents or minor parties making the top two. The Shooters would need to basically gain every One Nation preference, plus a few more, to overtake Labor (assuming Labor doesn’t gain any preferences). Remember that optional preferential voting means some preferences exhaust, and means you need to do better on the remaining preferences to catch up to a leading candidate.
6:56 – Worth noting that the booths in so far are all quite small. We have one out of three booths from Singleton, and one out of three from Scone, but votes haven’t come in from Muswellbrook or Dungog.
6:54 – A handful of booths have reported and at the moment the Nationals are leading with 32.7% of the primary vote, followed by Labor on 22.2%, the Shooters on 11.5%, independent Kirsty O’Connell on 10.9%, and One Nation on 9.8%. It’s far too early to call anything.
6:00 – Polls have just closed in the NSW state by-election for the seat of Upper Hunter. This is a key contest in a very marginal seat, with the Nationals under threat from Labor, One Nation and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party. You can bide your time before the results come out by reading my guide to the by-election, which features at least 44 comments as of Saturday afternoon. I’ll be back around 7pm with the first results.