We’re now six days past the Western Australian state election, and the picture has become clearer in both houses. I thought I’d run through the state of play as of Thursday evening.
In the Legislative Assembly, just one seat is still in play: Churchlands in the inner north-western suburbs. Labor’s Christine Tonkin is currently leading by 214 votes, ahead of Liberal MP Sean L’Estrange, who won the seat in 2013 with a margin of over 20%. It looks likely that the seat will go to Labor. Tonkin took the lead on Thursday morning.
This will give Labor 53 seats, compared with four for the Nationals and two for the Liberal Party.
Labor’s wins in Nedlands and Warren-Blackwood were confirmed on Wednesday. Warren-Blackwood in particular was a shock result, being the safest seat won by Labor at this election.
This means Labor has likely gained thirteen seats (including Churchlands), eleven from the Liberal Party and two from the Nationals.
I have run through the latest state of the count in the six upper house regions.
To summarise: Labor has won 22 seats, along with six Liberals and two Nationals.
There are six other seats in play:
- East Metro – if Legalise Cannabis can re-take the lead from Western Australia Party, they will win rather than Labor.
- Mining and Pastoral – if the Shooters can overtake the Liberal, the Shooters and Nationals will win rather than the Daylight Saving Party and Liberal
- South Metro – If the Liberal Democrats can get ahead of the Liberal Party and Labor can get ahead of the Greens, Labor wins instead of the Greens.
- South West – Three-way tie for the last two seats between Labor, Legalise Cannabis and Nationals.
This looks likely to go 3 Labor, 2 Nationals, 1 Liberal. The Shooters fall 0.064 quotas short of the Nationals at the final hurdle, which would be a lot to overcome.
Labor has won four seats, and the Liberal Party has won the fifth seat. The sixth seat will either go to Labor or Legalise Cannabis, depending on whether Legalise Cannabis can stay ahead of the Western Australia Party. If LC achieves this, they then receive WAP preferences, then Greens preferences, then they are elected on Labor preferences.
At the moment Legalise Cannabis is trailing WAP by 106 votes, or 0.0026 quotas. That is well within the range of results that will be affected by both below-the-line voting (which won’t follow the tickets) and late counting.
Mining and Pastoral
Labor has won four seats, with the other two seats in play. It all comes down to whether the Shooters or the Liberal Party drop out first. If the Shooters drop out, the Daylight Saving Party and Liberal Party win those seats. If the Liberal drops out, the Nationals and the Shooters win.
At the moment, the Liberal is defeating the Shooter by 321 votes, or 0.87%, or 0.0612 quotas.
The Daylight Saving Party had been ranked second-last of all the groups in the region as of Sunday, but have now overtaken three other groups with a whopping 67 primary votes (0.18%).
This result looks clear: four Labor and two Liberal.
The only potential change would be if the Australian Christians could close the gap with the Liberal near the end of the count, but that gap is currently 1.97%, or 6147 votes, so doesn’t seem likely.
Four Labor and one Liberal have been elected. The favourites for the last seat are the Greens but Labor has a plausible path to victory.
The only plausible difference would be if the Liberal Party was to fall behind the Liberal Democrats, who they currently lead by just 0.03% (compared to Wednesday evening when the gap was 0.27%), and then Labor was to close the gap with the Greens, which is currently just 0.04%. If only one of these two gaps is closed, the Greens win, but if both gaps are closed the Greens do not benefit from Liberal preferences, and then they are stuck behind Labor until they are knocked out. In that scenario, Labor would win.
Labor has won three seats, along with one Liberal.
The last two seats are as close to a three-way tie as you can get. On the latest figures in the calculator, Legalise Cannabis wins the fifth seat with 1.0059 quotas, with Labor ahead of the Nationals by just eight votes with about 0.997 quotas each. Legalise Cannabis preferences just narrowly break towards Labor, giving them a win by 53 votes.
This result is close enough to be affected by below-the-line preference leakage and late counting. All three parties are in the race for the last two seats.