WA 2021 – the state of the upper house (part two)


As a follow-up to yesterday’s post, I’ve gone through the last two regions.

Labor has won four seats in South Metropolitan (along with one Liberal) and their preferences are pushing the Greens over the top for the fifth seat, but only by a slim margin over the Liberal Democrats.

Labor have won three seats in the South West, along with one Liberal. There is a fourth seat for a party of the left which is currently going to Legalise Cannabis. If they are knocked out, that seat would likely go to Labor. The Nationals look likely to win the other seat.

There have already been some shifts in the counting in the other four regions. In East Metropolitan, the Labor vote has climbed from 4.52 to 4.67 quotas, and Legalise Cannabis has fallen behind WAP. If that happens, Labor would win a 23rd seat.

Meanwhile in North Metropolitan, a climbing Labor vote has contributed to the Greens reaching 0.79 quotas by the end of the count. If the left vote keeps climbing it’d be worth watching to see if the Greens can win there.

South Metropolitan

This region is currently represented by three Labor, two Liberals and one Liberal Democrat.

Labor is currently leading on 4.31 quotas, with the Liberal Party on 1.28 and the Greens on 0.51. The Australian Christians are fourth on 0.14. Keep an eye on the Liberal Democrats, in ninth place on 0.0655 quotas, and No Mandatory Vaccination, in seventh place on 0.0677 quotas.

There is a big pile-up of votes behind the Liberal Democrats, Australian Christians, Legalise Cannabis and No Mandatory Vaccination, with no preferences going to the big parties while those four are still in the race.

At the end of the count the Greens win with just over a quota, with close to a quota sitting with the Liberal Democrats and the Christians.

The combined Labor/Greens vote is just enough to win that last seat, so if there is a slight shift to the right we could see the Liberal Democrats or the Australian Christians win the last seat.

There is an alternative scenario if No Mandatory Vaccination can get ahead of Legalise Cannabis. They are currently eliminated with six other parties in the race just three votes behind Legalise Cannabis (with triple the vote they started with). If they overtake them, they end up at around 0.8 of a quota but at the moment don’t have enough support to win.

South West

This region is currently represented by two Labor, one Liberal, one Nationals, one Greens and one One Nation MLC.

Labor has 3.77 quotas of primary votes, with the Liberal Party on 1.24, the Nationals on 0.52 and the Greens on 0.45. The Shooters are on 0.20 quotas. Sustainable Australia are worth watching on 0.0296 quotas.

Sustainable Australia manage to increase their vote to 0.21 quotas before being excluded. During this process, the four bigger parties receive barely any preferences, but the Shooters increase their vote from 0.20 quotas to 0.49, and Legalise Cannabis grew from 0.17 to 0.32 quotas.

At a key point in the count Legalise Cannabis are 0.7% ahead of the Greens when the Greens were excluded. Greens preferences push Legalise Cannabis to the lead with 0.94 quotas.

The Shooters were then excluded, and their preferences split between the Nationals and Legalise Cannabis, electing both and leaving Labor unelected.

If the Greens were to get ahead of Legalise Cannabis, it wouldn’t be enough to stay in the race, but Greens preferences instead elect Labor instead of Legalise Cannabis.

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  1. NMV have found those extra few votes behind the couch in South Metro (now 38 votes ahead of LC), so they’ve snowballed to 0.847 quotas, then get stuck there.

    The exclusion order’s flipped around a few times now. Whichever opponent Greens end up with (NMV, AC, both of AC and LDP), they come out on top each time. It’s looking pretty good for them at the moment.

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