There hasn’t been a great deal of time to dive into the results, but I’ve grabbed the seat-level votes and swings as of this morning.
I’ve put together a couple of maps showing the primary vote swings for the Greens and One Nation, and the two-party-preferred swings. I’ve also grouped seats by region to get a sense of the geography of the result.
Firstly, let’s look at the two-party-preferred vote. I’ve grouped seats into seven regions. Brisbane, the Gold Coast, the Sunshine Coast, the remainder of south-east Queensland, Central Queensland, Northern and Western Queensland, and the regional cities (including Cairns, Townsville, Bundaberg, Mackay, Rockhampton and Toowoomba).
There are only 69 out of 93 seats where we have a valid two-party-preferred swing comparison between 2017 and 2020. The remainder either feature a minor party or independent in the count in 2017 or 2020, or the count is still very early. Thanks to William Bowe at Poll Bludger for the data I used for this section.
|Region||Seats||Swing to ALP|
|Western and Northern Queensland||2||-4.9|
At the moment the count is much less progressed in the Ipswich-area seats for some reason, and One Nation came second in 2017 in some of these seats, so none of them are included in this table or the subsequent map.
The biggest swing to Labor was on the Sunshine Coast, which fits with the seats which have either fallen or are at risk of falling: Caloundra, Nicklin, Glass House and Pumicestone. The result was not as strong on the Gold Coast.
The Greater Brisbane area was relatively good for Labor, but there just aren’t that many LNP marginals to win there. They may win Chatsworth.
Despite early results suggesting Labor could lose seats in the Townsville and Cairns area, they gained an overall swing in these seats and look set to hold all of the seats they already held on the coast.
The following map shows the swings for those 69 seats. You can click on a seat to see the 2PP vote and swing for the two major parties. Sorry, the pop-ups haven’t been cleaned up to look nicer, this was a quick job.
Next let’s look at the primary vote swings, particularly for the larger minor parties.
This table uses the same regions, although it shows all 93 seats. The primary count is more complete, and we don’t have as much of an issue with comparison (although ON did not run in every seat in either 2017 or 2020).
|Region||ALP||LNP||ON||GRN||ALP swing||LNP swing||ON swing||GRN swing|
|South East Queensland||38.5||36.6||13.4||6.5||7.6||5.9||-9.9||-0.5|
|Western and Northern Queensland||27.2||31.7||5.9||3.3||1.4||2||-8.5||-1|
The Labor primary vote went up everywhere. It went up the most in central Queensland, regional parts of south-east Queensland, the Sunshine Coast and the regional cities. They are also some of the places where One Nation did best in 2017.
The LNP primary vote went up substantially in the regions but actually went down in Brisbane and the Gold Coast.
The One Nation vote crashed everywhere, and it tended to crash the most in the places where they were strongest.
I find the Greens swings the most interesting. The Greens vote went down in every region in the state. Yet they gained a seat and are in with a (small) chance in two others. They also gained large swings in a number of surrounding seats. This is where the next map comes in handy.
This shows the primary vote swings for the Greens. Green shades mean it went up. Yellow means it went down. The map can also be toggled to show the One Nation primary vote swings in seats where they ran in both 2017 and 2020.
The Greens did gain swings in a block of five contiguous seats in central Brisbane: Maiwar, McConnel, Cooper, South Brisbane and Greenslopes. They did also gain swings in some other seats. But these core seats are alone in a sea of anti-Greens swings.
I’m not trying to spin a story about this election being a bad result for the Greens. Gaining extra seats is definitely a good result, but it’s interesting to see how that vote has concentrated.
It’s also possible on late counting that the Greens vote will climb above the 10% they polled in 2017, and a bunch of these seats currently showing small anti-Greens swings will flip to a pale shade of green.
That’s it for now, I’ll be back later today with a podcast about last night’s results.