Election night live


11:34 – I have to admit tonight’s election has been a more difficult one to call, due to some reluctance to call seats due to pre-poll voting. There’ll be a bunch more analysis to write tonight but I’ll return tomorrow with some clear-headed summaries of the state of play.

9:05 – There has been a big swing towards the LNP in Queensland, which has seen them solidify their hold on marginals such as Forde, Flynn, Capricornia, Dawson and Petrie. Interestingly the swing to Peter Dutton in Dickson was much smaller. It looks like the LNP has gained Herbert and Longman, and Labor is just ahead in Blair.

8:34 – It’s been a long few hours. The big unknown question is how the massively expanded pre-poll vote flows. If that pre-poll vote has the same swing as the election-day vote we’re probably headed for either a Coalition majority government or a hung parliament. But there has been a big change in the composition of that vote, and I am reluctant to make assumptions about those votes until we see how they look.

6:00 – Polls have just closed in 123 electorates on Australia’s east coast. Polls will close in 12 electorates in South Australia and the Northern Territory in 30 minutes, followed ninety minutes later by the remaining 16 electorates in Western Australia.

I will be regularly dropping in her to post broad updates on the results, but you can also find my analysis on the Guardian’s live blog.

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  1. What on earth… Liberals gaining ground in QLD. They are picking up Blair and Griffith and holding almosr every marginal. Are these just early results?

  2. LNP win likely nationally. ABC TV says that One Nation and UAP vote in Qld killed the ALP there. Other comments see the workers voting LNP more. Bye bye Bill and welcome Tanya as the new Labour leader.

  3. A dissasterous result for the country if the trends continue, I guess people like BJA, The sheriff and others win. I concede the coalition will win. Guess im glad that i will be immigrating to North America next year. The only seats i see ALP gaining is Chisholm,Gilmore,Dunkley,Corangamite just those 4 will almost certainly have Bill Shorten resign. The coalition have exceeded expectations just like Trumps win and Brexit, So my guess is the Labor party will need to unite behind a new leader and fix its unpopular policies on NG and FC’s. Even though i likely won’t be in the country by the end of next year. I do still hope for the best and i do hope Morrison keeps his word that he will remain Liberal leader and never hand the keys to Peter Dutton. Cowper is lost for certain, As well as Farrer, Warringah and Wentworth will be the only crossbench gains since the last election it looks like, Although not clear with wentworth.

  4. The strangest election in a long while. I was almost certain Dickson was a write-off and didnt think the Libs stood any chance in Bass, Braddon & Longman.

    I was wrong like most, but that’s the country at work.

  5. Unless there’s something crazy in pre-polls, this has to be one of the biggest upsets and biggest errors by pollsters in recent memory. A completely different result to what every poll was predicting.

  6. Any estimate on size of compositional error? My estimates are that if pre-polls break 51.5/48.5 vs 54.5/48.5 in 2016 this could mean estimates using last elections 2PP could be off by almost 1%

  7. Can we get an update on any meaningful prepolling numbers? It seems to be reflective of polling day’s vote, surely it has to have different demographics?

  8. Quite an incredible failure in polling in this election, seems almost certain that the government will be returned with a slender majority.

    Scott Morrison ran an energetic campaign but it was devoid on policy…quite a surreal almost unbelievable result, just shows you can never take anything for granted. While Labor was supposedly ahead in 200 consecutive polls, this result suggests they were never really ahead.

  9. Labor had chance after chance after chance.
    We can’t live on hot air.
    Decades have come and gone. We are not fools

  10. In the spirit of bipartisanship I guess the main takeaway after tonight is that opinion polling is literally worthless.

  11. A remarkable result given what pollsters led the public to believe was a trend sustained since the 2016 election.
    The polling companies are fortunate they are not listed on the ASX because their valuations would be trashed within minutes of the market open on Monday morning.
    This result appears to have blown their respective business cases to smithereens.

  12. If you are a Labor voter it is a devastating and unexpected result but all is not lost. As another famous team in red , Liverpool FC likes to say ‘we go again’ .. A new Labor leader will be minted but l hope it is not Tanya. I think, she is worthy of the leadership but this country has a long way to go before it elects a female leader outright and l don’t want to wait another 6 years for a Labor government..

  13. I am not surprised by the swing to the LNP in Qld – having spent time on the hustings, but i am surprised by the low green vote in the key seats given the huge effort, visibility and the number of people taking ONLY green HTV.

    i guess it was just that Greens are now more visible and mainstream.

    Time to cut the polling obsession (me too). Waste of time and effort and money.

  14. BJA from Ryan

    I think it was you who mentioned to never give up as a a Lib supporter after the NSW election, and I was thinking this election would be much tougher than that one. Well I gotta say, my hat is definitely off to the Libs and supporters after such a stunning victory.

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