Victoria 2018 – two-party-preferred, mapped


In today’s edition, I’m updating a map I produced on request to include the two-party-preferred vote (and swing) in 87 out of 88 seats.

The VEC published two-party-preferred figures in seats where the two-candidate-preferred was not between Labor and Coalition (this electorate-level data is available in my data repository). It was, however, impossible to calculate such a figure in Richmond, where the Liberal Party declined to stand a candidate.

Kevin Bonham has calculated three statewide 2PP figures, depending on how you count Richmond:

57.62% to Labor (Uniform swing applied to Richmond – probably fairest method)
57.89% to Labor (Richmond treated as 100% to Labor)
57.35% to Labor (Richmond excluded)

Whichever model you take, it appears that the polls consistently underestimated Labor’s lead. The pollsters had no trouble picking the winner, since the result was so clear, but the polling error was relatively large. This reminds me of Nate Silver’s rule about the direction of polling error:

The conventional wisdom was that the Andrews government was in at least some trouble, even if some commentators acknowledged that Labor were the favourites for re-election. It does make me wonder if some pollsters were herding towards a more conventional result.

With 2PP data available for all but one seat, I’ve now been able to put together two more maps, one showing the two-party-preferred vote by seat, and the other showing the swing:

The default map shows the swing, but you can toggle to show the two-party-preferred vote.

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  1. Ripon is wrong, I dispute the results because of how close, Voter irregularities very likely, Shame on the corrupt AEC for not investigating. They should be banned from conducting elections and instead a goverment owned commision should preside over it

  2. Daniel
    Who owns AEC? What does “C” in AEC stand for.

    For my own info what hade AEC got to do with Rippon results? Did AEC run Victorian Election?
    It is 8 years since I had anything to do with a Victorian Election so I will assume that Daniel must have had something to base his remarks on.

    My understanding is that all AEC do is prepare Electoral roll but I know my knowledge is 8 years old.
    Smells more of CEC rather than AEC. Eg privately owned Federal Reserve changing a few words and RBA becomes a privately owned company run of course by a specific religious group.
    Andrew Jackson
    Andrew Jackson

  3. Ben I thought that was case but was not going in with all guns blazing.
    I think the only role that AEC plays in state elections is preparation of electoral roll. In Queensland we used to have our own roll due to Hanlon and Gair ALP govt’s moving railway camps to adjust aALP voting numbers. Consequently when Coalition got into power in 1957 they adjusted electoral act to require 3 months residency . Today Qld uses Federal roll with 1 months residency required for enrolment. ECQ runs State and Council elections which Councils do not like due to charges ECQ level. Hover I have far more faith in ECQ or AEC than I would have in elections run by councils themselves.
    It would still be good for Daniel to answer the Questions I Put to him. You may have answered them but Daniel got his info about AEC from some where.

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