Vic redistribution – final(ish) map finished


The AEC announced its final decision for the Victorian federal redistribution on Wednesday. That day I published my new estimates of the margins, and I’ve now also finished my map of the new electoral boundaries.

I am not 100% sure these are correct, because the AEC did not publish data or maps on Wednesday. They simply published descriptions of the changes they made to the draft boundaries (albeit detailed ones). I believe I have accurately drawn all the changes that involved voters moving but I will need to wait for the publication of the maps and data on July 13 to double-check.

You can download this map as a Google Earth file, or browse the map below.

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  1. Overall quite good for Labor, gaining Dunkley and Fraser, Corangamite becoming a toss up and still within range in LaTrobe, and cutting the margin in Casey.
    I’m waiting for the next redistribution as this seems like a placeholder until another seat is added, most likely in the western suburbs, either a seat added or one at the expense of the eastern suburbs, my guess would be a new seat taking in areas from Gellibrand, Maribyrnong, Fraser and Melbourne which would be Labor vs Green seat.

  2. @L96. It’s almost certain that Victoria’s next redistribution will involve a further new seat. The only question is whether it will occur in 2020/21 (after the next election), or 2023/24 (after the following one).

    Projecting the one-year growth rate for the next two years, my calculations suggest that Victoria will probably be entitled to the new seat based on population data from Sept 2019 or later, which would be released in March 2020. So unless Turnbull goes to an election early enough for the new parliament to meet before late March 2019, the current redistribution will probably apply for a single term only.

    I agree the next seat will again be somewhere in the west. It could be in the area you suggest, or maybe a little further north, with the divisions you mention pushed to the south.

    WA is almost certainly going to lose a division in the next redistribution. I’ve started kicking around ideas for that one and it’s going to be messy. Finding enough electors for the rural divisions with the bigger quota is going to be particularly tricky.

  3. For WA, I wonder if Pearce would be a good target for abolition. It’s a bits-and-pieces seat that could be used to top up all the surrounding seats fairly neatly.

    e.g. Avon Valley into O’Connor, northern rural bit into Durack, Ellenbrook into Hasluck, and Wanneroo into Moore/Cowan.

    I also agree with L96 that the Maribyrnong/Sunshine corridor would probably be a good place for a new Victorian seat.

  4. Agreed with Pearce being the obvious choice for abolition, Canning would also work as seat which could be removed, its such an odd mix of outer suburbs, rural towns and Mandurah.

  5. Actually L96, I disagree I don’t see the results as particularly strong for the ALP. I think the boundaries are very fair to both.

    Why they look good for the ALP in the surface is that Victoria voted 51.8% ALP in 2016, most opinion polls have the ALP currently at 52% in Victoria, so the federal election could conceivably pass Vic by….. again.

    To get an Idea of how fair the boundaries are the Libs (ignoring independents) have a realistic chance of winning 19 of Victoria 38 seats on 50% of the 2PP Vote (Nicholls/Mallee/Gippsland/ Kooyong/Goldstein/Indi/wannon/Menzies/Higgins/
    Monash/Aston/Flinders/Deakin/Casey/La Trobe/Chisholm/Corangamite/

    The ALP could expect (excluding Greens) to hold 19 seats as well (Cooper/Wills/Melbourne/Calwell/Scullin/Fraser/Scullin/Gorton/Gellibrand/ Lalor/Bruce/
    Maribyrnong/Holt/Corio/Ballarat/McEwen/Jaga jaga/Hotham/Bendigo/Isaacs).

    With 52% of the vote the ALP gets 19 (55%) of the seats (winning Dunkley and McNamara) with Corangamite too close to call. If the Libs got 52% of the vote they also get 55% of the seats (winning Isaacs and Bendigo) with Hotham too close to call. All you do is set the pendulum to 50%

    Since 1990 Victoria average ALP vote was 51.5% ranging between 47.5% (1990) and 55.3% (2010), with this variance its suggest that only the following seats are really in play: Chisholm/Corangamite/Dunkley/McNamara which are sitting on the liberal side of the 50% 2PP but below the ALP’s high water mark, and on the ALP’s side Hotham/Bendigo/Isaacs which sit on the ALP’s of the 50% pendulum but also below the Lib high water mark. It’s the Libs inability to move that water mark is probably why Jaga Jaga and McEwen are “sticky” for the ALP.

    Add on top of that the ALP have the knack of getting candidates that hold down notionally liberal seats, McNamara being the obvious example federally.

    In short the map is not a result of a “favorable distribution” or gerrymandering, it reflects a succession of Liberal governments since John Howard that largely ignored Victoria and stayed in their comfort zone, it says a lot that since Peter Costello left over 10 years the liberals have not produced a single Victorian frontbencher who is instantly recognised as the Liberal standard bearer in Vic, that’s how you get a map like that.

  6. Yeah Pearce can go so long as Moore and Cowan can soak up all of Wanneroo council. If not, I’d give Hasluck the chop.

    Should WA lose a seat, it’s clear the outer suburban ring (Pearce, Hasluck, Burt, Canning) would be reduced from four back to three.

    Though I don’t see Canning a candidate for abolition. It’s always had strong growth, along with neighbouring Brand and Forrest. If you abolished Canning, where does Mandurah go?

    Burt’s another candidate. But again, if the growth is concentrated in the south of Perth it’s quite likely to survive.

  7. SB, I think the pattern of seats in the eastern suburbs is more favourable for the Liberals longer-term.

    The strongly Labor voting Clayton-Springvale-Dandenong corridor is now mostly contained in a single very safe seat (Bruce), instead of being split between 5 different seats.

  8. Agreed Mark Mulcair.

    The election after the next one will be very tough for Labor in Victoria, especially if Daniel Andrews gets reelected (not many state governments are brimming with popularity at the tail end of their 2nd term).

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